MOScout Daily Update: Rundown of April Fundraising Quarters
Where We Are
The General Assembly is off today as part of their Easter break.
Senate Appropriations will start its budget markup tomorrow at 10AM. Find the budget notes here.
The Senate will use its new schedule on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, with committee hearings starting at 8AM, and the full body convening at 11AM to have full days for floor action.
The Senate will be in this Friday.
There are four weeks remaining in the legislative session. May 6 is the constitutional deadline to pass the budget. (And there’s also constitutional requirement to pass a congressional redistricting map…)
April Quarters
I’m just going to run through the April fundraising quarters in this update…
First, a few big takeaways from this quarter…
· Gubby 2024: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s fundraising has finally begun in earnest. His PAC has narrowed the gap with Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe’s PAC. This race has officially started.
· Senate incumbents safe: It doesn’t appear that any state senators up for re-election are in any danger. They all have substantial war-chests, and there were no blow-out quarters from any challengers.
· Watch 3rd party PACs in open Senate primaries: While there’s a certain horserace thrill to seeing who is leading the money race. In many open primaries the difference isn’t enough to pre-determine the outcome. Outside money will likely be a big factor. RightPath PAC is now the largest (by cash on-hand ) state PAC in Missouri. It could be a huge player in some of these primaries, and will certainly be able to offset expenditures by the Lembke/Eigel 100 PAC if it chooses.
Okay, I’ll start with a quick zip through federal races…
US Senate
Eric Schmitt’s real firepower is in his Super PAC, Save Missouri Values, with $3,351,577 on-hand.
Billy Long raised about $1.2 million and spent about $1.5 million and made up the difference with a $250K loan to his campaign.
Eric Greitens touts over $500K raised in the last quarter in his press release. That’s only true if you double-count some contributions. It was closer to $400K raised.
Vicky Hartzler spent more than she brought in this quarter, finishing with $1.5M in the bank.
Mark McCloskey ended the quarter with $38,195 on-hand. His twitter account remains defiant; he was recently endorsed by the MAGA favorite My Pillow guy; but with single digit poll numbers and $38K in cash his campaign is effectively over.
Dave Schatz has the most cash on-hand ($2.1M), but he’s so far back in the polls, does it matter?
CD-4
Obviously without a map, it’s hard to assess who has a geographic advantage. Here’s the cash on-hand totals; Alford leads and Walsh trails.
Jim “Soupy” Campbell hasn’t filed his quarterly report yet.
Rick Brattin - $173,951
Bill Irwin - $203,572
Mark Alford - $340,351
Kalena Bruce - $170,131
Taylor Burks - $260,451
Sara Walsh - $67,954
CD-7
Same caveat on the map, but CD-7 is less volatile on its lines; it’s going to be in the southwest corner. Wasson retains his substantial cash on-hand lead, fueled by his previous personal contribution.
Jay Wasson - $843,548
Eric Burlison - $387,893
Audrey Richards - $0
Sam Alexander - $67,697
Alex Bryant $54,828.78
Mike Moon - $32,759
And on the state races…
Gubby 2024
Jay Ashcroft raised $36,995; and has $537,036 on-hand.
• Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $919,927 COH.
Mike Kehoe raised $58,540; and has $467,434 on-hand.
• American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $923,150 COH.
Bottomline: Ashcroft’s PAC fundraising has come alive, eliminating the gap there. This race is full on now.
Auditor
David Gregory raised $50,192; and has $448,335 on-hand.
• Show Me Growth PAC (pro-Gregory) - $356,612 COH.
Scott Fitzpatrick raised $90,099; and has $576,058 on-hand.
• Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitz) - $264,154 COH.
Bottomline: Gregory also recorded another $50K into his PAC this past weekend, keeping their fundraising totals neck and neck.
STL County Exec
Sam Page raised $157,506; and has $227,052 on-hand (with $32K in debt).
· Page PAC (pro-Page PAC) has $508,605 on-hand.
Shamed Dogan raised $49,200; and has $82,263 on-hand.
· Reform St Louis County Now (pro-Dogan PAC) has $153,770 on-hand.
Bottomline: Page enjoys a cash lead in both the candidate committee and the PAC.
The state senate Republican primaries…
Senate 2 – St. Charles, Bob Onder termed.
Nick Schroer raised $21,291; and has $122,149 on-hand.
• 1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $193,002 COH.
John Wiemann raised $7,400; and has $146,432 on-hand.
• JW Leadership PAC (pro-Wiemann) - $86,882 COH.
Bottomline: Schroer’s PAC gives him a money lead in this race, but it’s not enough to determine the outcome. I suspect third-party PACs – perhaps Lembke’s 100 PAC and others – will get involved in this race.
Senate 10 – Callaway County, Jeanie Riddle termed
Joshua Price filed an exemption committee. He won’t be spending more than $500.
Bryan Spencer raised $5,800; and has $148,772 on-hand.
Travis Fitzwater raised $41,737; and has $103,595 on-hand.
· Kingdom Leadership PAC (pro-Fitzwater) - $2,349 COH.
Jeff Porter raised $2,150; and has $24,289 on-hand.
Randy Pietzman raised $0; and has $1,666 on-hand.
Mike (Michael) Carter started his committee after the fundraising deadline, but then wrote a huge check.
Bottomline: Fitzwater had the best quarter, but it’s Carter’s $500K personal contribution which came after the quarter’s end that is the potential gamechanger here. That sum dwarfs the other totals.
Senate 12 – Northwest Missouri, Dan Hegeman termed.
Delus Johnson raised $41,500; and has $45,905 with $40K in debt.
J. Eggleston raised $3,619; and has $179,359 with $100K in debt.
Rusty Black raised $14,111; and has $13,986 on-hand.
Bottomline: Black is the consensus favorite here, but Eggleston’s $100K contribution makes this a potentially interesting race.
Senate 20 – Springfield, Eric Burlison for US Senate.
Curtis Trent raised $5,600; and has $202,312 on-hand.
· 417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $9,690 COH
Brian Gelner raised $55,180; and has $288,820 on-hand.
· Missouri Common Sense PAC (pro-Gelner) – $87,476 COH
Bottomline: Gelner outraised Trent for a second straight quarter. But like other primaries, outside PACs will likely be big spenders in these districts.
Senate 22 – Jefferson County, Paul Wieland termed
Dan Shaul raised $5,000; and has $55,841 on-hand.
• JeffCo Vision PAC (pro-Shaul) $76,192 COH (from January, April was Limited Activity).
Shane Roden raised $0; and has $3,475 on-hand.
Mary Elizabeth Coleman raised $20,955; and has $81,989 on-hand.
• Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (pro-Coleman) - $15,315 COH (from January, April was Limited Activity).
Jeff Roorda raised $144,463; and has $139,724 on-hand with $130K in debt.
Bottomline: Roorda’s personal contribution puts him in the cash on-hand lead, slightly ahead of Shaul’s combined total, with Coleman not too far behind. This one is up in the air right now.
Senate 26 – Franklin County, Dave Schatz termed
Nate Tate raised $7,800; and has $12,213 on-hand.
· Missouri Conservative Alliance (pro-Tate) - $5 on-hand.
Ben Brown raised $22,457; and has $94,470 on-hand.
· BB Freedom PAC (pro-Brown) – $0 on-hand.
Bob Jones raised $132,963; and has $135,022 on-hand with $79K in debt.
· Conservative Leadership for Missouri PAC (pro-Jones) - $23,400 on-hand.
Merry-Noella Skaggs formed her committee after the deadline.
Jason Franklin filed an exemption committee.
Bottomline: There’s a lot going on in this race. Jones is now the clear fundraising leader. The district lines generally worked to his advantage by cutting out Brown’s St. Louis County base. But Tate could crowd his “moderate” lane. And finally, this is another spot where third-parties will likely be heavily involved.
Other Senate Primaries
There’s no indication that the Republican primary challengers to incumbents are serious threats to their re-election. I’ll keep an eye on them, but none of them had big quarters which might signal a groundswell of discontent against the incumbent.
In Senate 6 (Sen. Mike Bernskoetter), Scott Riedel raised $11,738, and has $10,729 on-hand. His PAC has $700 on-hand.
In Senate 8 (Sen. Mike Cierpiot), Rachel Aguirre hasn’t filed an April report; and Joe Nicola has $24,313 on-hand.
Senate 16 (Sen. Justin Brown), Rep. Suzie Pollock raised $29,750 of which $25K was from herself. She has $34,501 on-hand.
In Senate 28 (Sen. Sandy Crawford), Bill Yarberry has $100 on-hand; and Janet Arnold hasn’t formed a committee yet.
In Senate 30 (Sen. Lincoln Hough), Angela Romine has $2,614 on-hand.
In Senate 32 (Sen. Bill White), Jill Carter didn’t file an April report.
Top 25 Committees COH
RightPath PAC - $2,448,180
Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC - $2,164,656
Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC- $1,280,561
Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $988,595
American Dream PAC - $923,150
Committee for Liberty - $919,927
Missouri REALTORS PAC - $751,242
Better Elections - $690,963
MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $647,490
Luetkemeyer For Senate - $616,380
Fitzpatrick For Missouri - $576,058
Ashcroft For Missouri - $537,036
McCreery for Missouri - $531,231
Page PAC - $508,605
Lucas For KC - $504,026
Leadership For America - $493,076
Callahan For Missouri - $484,288
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $482,093
Mighty Missouri PAC - $476,075
Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $467,434
Friends Of Gregory FX Daly - $464,575
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $460,394
Gregory For Missouri - $448,335
Friends Of Eric Burlison - $435,613
BUILD St. Louis PAC Inc. - $404,286
$5K+ Contributions
Better Elections - $800,000 from Article IV.
Better Elections - $800,000 from Article IV.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $250,000 from Good Day Farm Missouri LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $150,000 from GL Partners Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from Navarro Farms MO LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from Focus Partners Manchester LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from Focus Partners Manchester LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $50,000 from McLarty Consulting LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $50,000 from BeLeaf Medical LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $50,000 from Show-Me Alternatives LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $40,000 from Midwest Roots LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $30,000 from Organic Remides MO Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $25,000 from Illicit Gardens.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Releaf Resources LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Nirvana Bliss II LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from ARB Holdings LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Hub Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Relax PAC.
Show Me Growth PAC - $50,000 from FM Roofing & Construction, Inc.
Mo Coalition for Video Lottery PAC - $25,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of MO LLC.
Paladin PAC - $25,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of MO LLC.
amatoforjeffco - $15,000 from Phillip and Deb Amato.
Relax PAC - $11,000 from Hub Inc.
Committee To Elect Mike Huff For Council - $10,100 from Mike Huff.
Southern Drawl PAC - $10,000 from Charter Communications.
St. Charles County Leadership PAC - $6,000 from Mighty Missouri PAC.
Lobbyists Registrations
David Sweeney added Washington University.
Gamble & Schlemeier added Freeman Health System.
Edward Reilly Nix deleted Greater St. Louis, Inc.
Michael Moorefield deleted Missouri State Auditor's Office.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Charlie Hinderliter, Elizabeth Weber, Nate Walker, Mike Colona, and Amanda Good.