MOScout Daily Update: Beware Early Polls - More Consultants Join Better Elections - BILL PAC Gives to Pollock - Roberts Intro Vid and more...
Beware April Polls
Each week as I offer a new poll on various primary races in Missouri, it’s important to note that these are snapshots of current sentiment and not forecasts of outcomes.
A reader yesterday asked if I had any 2016 polls handy – and how accurate the early polling was. The implication is that all we’re getting right now is name ID, and that as he put it, “a lot of money in the last couple of months can make a pretty dramatic difference.”
I looked at the 2016 Republican gubernatorial race, and I was astounded how quickly Eric Greitens moved from the back of the pack to the front.
· First: this artifact, an article from NRP… “Greitens’ campaign noted that his bank account has $3 million more than the possible frontrunner in the four-way GOP contest for governor: Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder… Kinder, widely believed to have the most name recognition, contends he won't need as much money as his rivals -- in either party -- to win…”
The May 15 (2016) Remington/MOScout poll (MoE +/- 2.7%) See it here.
Peter Kinder: 26%
John Brunner: 20%
Catherine Hanaway: 12%
Eric Greitens: 7%
Undecided: 34%
About 7 weeks later, after the ads have started…
The July 8 Remington/MOScout poll (MoE +/-3%). See it here.
Eric Greitens: 29%
John Brunner: 22%
Catherine Hanaway: 16%
Peter Kinder: 12%
Undecided: 21%
The final Election Day results, about 3 weeks later…
Eric Greitens 34.6%
John Brunner 24.8%
Peter D. Kinder 20.7%
Catherine Hanaway 20.0%
What It Means
The support associated with name ID early on can dissipate quite quickly to a well-funded opponent. It’s important to watch the money being raised, as well, as the messaging that’s developing.
Roberts Intro Video
In a two-minute introductory video, Sen. Steve Roberts explains why he’s challenging incumbent Congresswoman Cori Bush and running for Congress. See it here.
Cori Bush has been a complete disappointment as a member of Congress. Her voting record speaks for itself: fixing roads and bridges [NO], clean water [NO], support of Ukraine [NO], and oil embargo against Russia [NO], and capitol police after January 6th [NO]…
New Hartzler Ad
Congresswoman Vicki Hartzler released a new ad in response to an Eric Greitens ad. See it here.
Have you seen this ad? It’s a lie. From Eric Greitens. That what he does.
And
Hartzler is set to announce an endorsement from former US Senator Pat Roberts (from Kansas) today…
Bill PAC Gives to Pollock
Believe in Life and Liberty (BILL) PAC sent $2,000 to Rep. Suzie Pollock’s campaign committee, according to the April filings. Pollock is challenging Sen. Justin Brown. BILL PAC is associated with Sen. Bill Eigel, so it’s contribution against a fellow Republican colleague may raise eyebrows in the Senate.
Although Eigel raises money for the PAC, he’s prohibited from directing its expenditures.
Liberty Ink, the firm of former Sen. Jim Lembke, received over $18,000 in BILL PAC’s latest filing for “consulting and fundraising.”
The $2K was the largest contribution to Pollock’s campaign, outside of the $25K loan she made to herself.
· Sen. Justin Brown’s candidate committee, and his PAC, both had a little over $100K in their respective bank accounts according to April filings.
More Consultants Join Better Elections
The April filing of Better Elections, the campaign vehicle to pass ranked choice voting in Missouri, showed more political consultants have joined the campaign.
In addition to the previous consultants (Barklage Company, Hancock & Prouty, Husch Blackwell Strategies, and MO Political Consulting), Veterans for Political Innovation and Show Me Victories are now listed for “coalition building and outreach.”
The largest expense on the report was to Fieldworks, which is collecting signatures for both Better Elections as well and the marijuana legalization effort. (I was told that Fieldworks is paying $26 per hour, with a small signing bonus – a reflection perhaps of the tight labor market).
· Better Election’s April report showed $690K on-hand, but last week a fresh $1.6 million was contributed from their dark money source.
Who’s Giving to Smith?
Politico Influence looks at which DC lobbyists are giving to Congressman Jason Smith and others vying for the Ways and Means Chairmanship. See it here.
Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Jason Smith (R-Mo.) have all thrown their hats in the ring to replace retiring Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) as the top Republican on the powerful committee, which oversees issues including taxes, trade, Social Security and some Medicare spending. Buchanan, who has seniority over the Smiths on the panel and is seen as the frontrunner, hauled in a record $1.1 million in the first three months of the year…
New Committees
Missouri Freedom Foundation PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Doug Widhalm.
Missouri Constitutional Conservatives PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Isaiah Korthanke.
$5K+ Contributions
AGC of MO PAC - $6,307 from Mark Gardner.
Lobbyists Registrations
Michael Moorefield added Public Education Employee Retirement System of Missouri, and Public School Retirement System of Missouri.
Henrio Thelemaque added International Institute of St. Louis.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Bill Stouffer, Jean Peters Baker, Sylvester Taylor, and Bert Atkins.