MOScout Daily Update: Hartzler Gets Soybean Nod - Wasson Polling Memo - Limestoners for Kehoe - Senate Civil War and more...
Scoop: Soybean for Hartzler
Later this morning, the MO Soybean Association will announce their endorsement of Vicky Hartzler for US Senate. This comes on the heels of similar Ag endorsements for Hartzler from MO Cattlemen, and MO Corn Growers.
Why It Matters
Hartzler’s two main competitors (Eric Greitens and Eric Schmitt) are St. Louisans. Playing up her farm cred could bolster her candidacy in dark red rural Missouri.
Exclusive: Wasson Polling Memo
Jay Wasson’s internal polling shows him with a lead in the congressional race to replace Billy Long. According to the findings, Wasson leads with Mike Moon and Eric Burlison following, and about a third of the electorate still undecided. The poll was conducted about two weeks – using the old CD-7 lines, which are not radically different from the final lines.
Jay Wasson currently leads in a crowded field, but a large undecided vote remains.
• Wasson leads with 21%, followed by Mike Moon (17%) and Eric Burlison (15%). No other
candidate is in double digits and 31% of voters are undecided.
There are several indicators that show Wasson’s vote share should outpace his opponents as the
campaign progresses.
• On the informed ballot, Wasson leads with 58%, followed by Moon (8%) and Burlison (7%).
This will undoubtedly be a competitive primary but clearly the Wasson campaign has gotten off to a strong start and has a message that can win. If they have the resources to deliver this message, Jay Wasson should win the primary.
First in MOScout: Kehoe Continues Endorsement Streak
Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe will continue his streak of early 2024 endorsements today, announcing that the Missouri Limestone Producers Association (MLPA) is backing his gubernatorial bid.
MLPA has 44 limestone-producing members with hundreds of quarries located throughout Missouri. Another 130 companies are associate members of MLPA and the members of MLPA employ over 1000 Missourians in critical infrastructure jobs.
Why It Matters
From a grassroots perspective, having MLPA on board provides the campaign with literally hundreds of sign locations throughout the state.
Senate Civil War Lurches Toward Primary Showdown
The Conservative Caucus hopes that the Senate Republican primaries this summer will add to their numbers. They’ve been hitting local Republican clubs, spreading the word, and soliciting donations for their campaign vehicle, The 100 PAC.
The 100 PAC website says that to get an endorsement candidate must commit to:
· Being part of the State Senate Conservative Caucus if elected
· Promoting policy that protects our values, safeguard our families, businesses and schools in Missouri and promotes the prosperity and growth of our state.
Listed on the website – with the caveat that they’re not endorsed yet by the 100 PAC…
· Ben Brown (running in Senate 26, Franklin County)
· Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman (running in Senate 22, Jefferson County)
· Rep. Randy Pietzman (running in Senate 10, Mid-MO)
· Rep. Nick Schroer (running in Senate 2, St. Charles County)
· Former Rep. Bryan Spencer (running in Senate 10, Mid-MO)
· Rep. Curtis Trent (running in Senate 20, Springfield)
And
On Facebook, 100 PAC leader Jim Lembke makes the fight seem almost biblical…
I was reminded this morning in Sunday School, that God’s way is not always the way I think He should work. In August, the conservative candidates for the open seats in the Missouri senate are going to be greatly outgunned. The Swamp and Establishment is going to have all the money they “need” to defeat the rebels. Then I was reminded of David, Gideon, Elijah, Joshua and Caleb. Time and time again God reminds us that it is He that fights the battles of His saints. Please pray that God gives victory to those candidates that are committed to protect Life, Liberty and Property. It is not enough to just put an R behind your name, we need leaders that understand the proper function of government. It is not a subjective standard. Just use the MOGOP platform
Next Session = More Filibustering
Some have suggested that the CC’s method this session wasn’t successful. That despite their repeated filibusters and attempts to attach amendments, they weren’t rewarded with the passage of their big priorities (trans athlete regulations, CRT). But on Twitter, Sen. Denny Hoskins has no regrets… I filibustered 15+ hours to get bills banning CRT, Save Girls Sports & have a congressional map to include both military bases in the same congressional district debated on the senate floor. I have no regrets in fighting for my district!
· This presumably means we could see the same strategy employed next session.
Dem Gloom: Biden Polling Weakens
Politico Playbook PM: President JOE BIDEN’s monthslong public opinion slump shows no signs of abating yet: A new AP/NORC Center for Public Research poll out this morning finds him slipping to the worst marks of his presidency, with a 39% approval rating… A slight majority of Americans say Biden’s policies have done more to hurt the economy than help it. And the president’s approval rating among members of his own party doesn’t even clear the three-in-four mark.
Politico Playbook: In fact, voters may have already made up their minds [for the midterms]. That, at least, is the argument from DOUG SOSNIK in his latest memo… Doug looks at the Biden presidency so far and concludes that the midterms were essentially lost during the period from July to November last year. Nothing since then has changed Biden’s standing. And Doug thinks there’s only one thing that possibly could: “reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe.”
Hartzler Nephew in Title IX Fight
Politico reports on Andrew Hartzler, nephew to Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, filing a lawsuit to end religious institution’s Title IX exemption. See it here.
· During his time at [Oral Roberts University], Hartzler, now 23, assiduously concealed his sexual identity from school officials in order to avoid a punishment that would jeopardize his degree. In his junior year, he was summoned to a dean’s office after he was reported for having his boyfriend, who was not an ORU student, in his dorm room…
· Within three months of graduation, Hartzler joined a class-action lawsuit against the Department of Education, asking the court to strike down the religious exemption as a violation of the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment, and of the students’ equal protection rights….
· Hartzler first learned of the religious exemptions after he graduated. “It didn’t make sense to me because the federal government protects us,” he said. “In my mind, where federal money is used, [the] law should be followed.”
eMailbag: Smith One to Watch
Nobody can argue about Kurtis Gregory being a star, but let’s not give up on Travis Smith. He worked hard to pass PDMP as a freshman. He collects checks every month from Walmart and Starbucks as part of his business. He is by far the best choice for chair of the Economic Development Committee… We might have a different discussion in two years.
$5K+ Contributions
Page PAC - $10,000 from BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Zach Monroe, Meredith Shadwick, and Taisir Yanis.