MOScout Daily Update: Cierpiot Internal Polling - Roberts Ad - TBV Endorsements - Richey's Letter to Caucus - STL County House Races and more...

Exclusive: Cierpiot Polling

Team Cierpiot’s internal polling shows that Sen. Mike Cierpiot starts his re-election bid with a decent lead but is still well below 50%.  He will have to run a full, well-funded campaign to bring it home without drama.   

The poll indicates that support for Joe Nicola may be misplaced.  Rachl Aguirre starts in a slightly better position, and as the only woman in the race, she may benefit from what one consultant calls “The Saundra McDowell effect.”

Also, interesting to see the hits on both of Cierpiot’s opponents is pretty lethal, at 80%.

Field Date: June 6-7, 2022

Completed Surveys: 303

Margin of Error: 5.63%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mike Cierpiot?

TOTAL FAVORABLE...................... 28.4%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE.................. 8.6%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Joe Nicola?

TOTAL FAVORABLE..................... 4.9%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE................... 2.3%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Rachl Aguirre?

TOTAL FAVORABLE......................8.3%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE..................3.6%

Uniformed Ballot Test

If the Republican Primary for State Senate were held today, would you vote for

Mike Cierpiot, Joe Nicola, or Rachl Aguirre?

TOTAL CIERPIOT.........................35.0%

TOTAL NICOLA............................ 3.9%

TOTAL AGUIRRE........................... 9.2%

Rachl Aguirre has a history of financial issues and consistently failed to pay taxes on time. The state of Missouri placed an income tax lien on her for failing to pay income taxes, a company she was treasurer for was sued for thousands of unpaid local taxes, and her home was foreclosed on in 2011. Does knowing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Rachl Aguirre in the Republican Primary for State Senate?

TOTAL LESS LIKELY...................79.2%

Joe Nicola does not even live in this state senate district and is only allowed to run for this office because of a legal technicality. Does knowing this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Joe Nicola in the Republican Primary for State Senate?

TOTAL LESS LIKELY................... 79.9%

Richey for Speaker

Word spread yesterday that Rep. Doug Richey is pursing the House speakership – in January 2025, after Dean Plocher’s tenure.  That leadership vote will occur at next year’s “summer caucus” in September 2023.  Since Republicans took control of the chamber, nearly all speakers have been either speaker pro tem, or floor leader before ascending to the top spot.

From Richey’s email to his House Republican Caucus…

·         I am grateful for those engaged currently in leadership races. In particular, our four colleagues, running for Floor Leader, have known about my plan for some time. I respect them. I trust them. The skills and abilities required for Floor Leader are unique to that responsibility and I wish them well in their endeavor.

·         I am committed to consistency in the character, convictions, and collegiality required by the Speaker's office. I have truly enjoyed serving with you during times of caucus 'wins' as well as times of caucus tension. We each have a role to play within our caucus but should recognize that the caucus must have high expectations for the role of Speaker. I have appreciated the Speakerships of Elijah Haahr and Rob Vescovo, and look forward to working with our next Speaker, Dean Plocher. They have each demonstrated their own unique abilities to manage the complexities of the House of Representatives. I'm offering you my capabilities to provide leadership worthy of your trust.

·         Convictional optimism, Republican collegiality, and collaborative clarity are a part of who I am. I will persist in each of these as Speaker if you entrust me with this responsibility. You have my word.

·         Serving as the Chair of the Federal Stimulus Appropriations Committee and the Joint Education Committee have put me into contact with every corner of our state. I have heard from caucus members, municipalities, corporations, entrepreneurs, educators, and Missouri citizens facing vastly different needs from one another. Our Missouri values, informed by our Republican values, uniquely position us to respond to these diverse challenges. I am confident in these values and have seen them at work in thousands of interactions related to federal stimulus and all things education.

Roberts on the Air

Take a look at Sen. Steve Roberts’ TV ad here.

No surprises here.  It hits exactly the these you’d expect, telling the viewers that Roberts will work with President Joe Biden, contrasting that with Congresswoman Cori Bush’s high profile No vote on the infrastructure package. 

·         He also takes the more moderate (and popular) Democratic position of rejecting “defund the police.”

First in MOScout: New Valentine Endorsements

Trudy Busch Valentine is set to unveil another round of endorsements.  Big names include former US Senator Jean Carnahan, as well as Sen. Barbara Washington.  But equally important are the labor organizations now backing her campaign.

Representative Jerome Barnes

Former Senator Jean Carnahan

Elizabeth Dorsey, Florissant Democratic Committeewoman

Florissant Township Open Democratic Club

International Association of Bridge, Structural and Ornamental Ironworkers Union Local

396

Lee's Summit Democrats

St. Louis City 16th Ward Democrats

St. Louis City 28th Ward Regular Democratic Club

UA Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 562

United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting

Industry of the United States (UA)

United Food and Commercial Workers Local 655

Senator Barbara Washington

Shaun Weiler, Florissant Democratic Committeeman

Representative Yolanda Young

MOScout House Primary Report: STL County

We’re getting very near the end of my series on House primaries.  This one covers 27 House districts in St. Louis County. Find it here.

In this report…

House 67 – Incumbent Neil Smith challenged.

House 68 – Incumbent Jay Mosley challenged.

House 70– Incumbent Gretchen Bangert challenged.

House 73 – Incumbents Raychel Proudie and Mike Person battle each other.

House 75 – Incumbent Alan Gray challenged.

House 85 – Open seat.  Three-way Democratic primary. 

House 88 – Open seat. Two-way Republican primary.

House 92 – Incumbent Michael Burton challenged.

House 96 – Open seat (Gregory for Auditor). Two-way Republican primary.

House 99 – Open seat. Two-way Democratic primary.

House 100 – Open seat. Two-way Republican primary.

House 101 – Open seat (Grier seat). Two-way Republican primary.

eMailbag on Burlie Ad

·         A male politician who doesn't shoot anything during an ad, drives his daughters places, and may pour milk into a glass instead of drinking from the jug. Intriguing!

·         Burlison’s ad will be hard to beat. Talk about connecting with the voter on policy and everyday life. Good luck to the media folks for the other candidates.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard McIntosh added Towering Oaks Preeminent Capitol Consulting, LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Conservative Justice PAC - $125,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight P.C.

Missouri Alliance For Freedom - Grace River PAC - $50,000 from Herzog Railroad Services Inc.

Missouri Alliance For Freedom - Grace River PAC - $50,000 from Herzog Technologies Inc.

Missouri Alliance For Freedom - Grace River PAC - $50,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

Jackson County 4 Kids - $10,000 from Cornerstones of Care.

Jackson County 4 Kids - $10,000 from MOCSA.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Congressman Jason Smith, Sen. Bill White, August Busch III, Bob Burns, and John Pelzer.

MOScout Schedule

MOScout will be off this weekend.