MOScout Weekender: Schmitt Leads New Senate Poll, Greitens Hartzler RIght Behind, 21% Still Undecided
Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide GOP
Survey conducted June 22 through June 23, 2022. 911 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the August 2nd Republican Primary for U.S. Senate are Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Dave Schatz and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 20%
Vicky Hartzler: 19%
Billy Long: 8%
Mark McCloskey: 5%
Dave Schatz: 2%
Eric Schmitt: 25%
Undecided: 21%
Q2: Some candidates are pursuing an endorsement from Donald Trump. If Trump were to endorse a candidate in the United States Senate race, how would that influence your vote?
Would you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote for the candidate, probably not vote for that candidate, or would it make no difference to how you’d vote?
Definitely vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 27%
Probably vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 20%
Probably not vote for candidate Trump endorsed: 24%
No difference: 29%
Q3: Thinking about the 2020 election, which statement best sums up your feelings…
There was widespread election fraud which is why Donald Trump lost the election: 53%
There was some election fraud, but Joe Biden would have won regardless: 18%
There was little to no election fraud: 29%
Q4: The candidates in the Aug. 2nd Republican Primary for state Auditor are _. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Scott Fitzpatrick: 18%
David Gregory: 12%
Undecided: 70%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: August Upset?
I asked lobbyists, where they thought we might see an upset in the August primaries. 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. Mike Moon in CD-7… 27.3%
2. Suzie Pollock in Senate 16… 22.7%
3. Steve Roberts in CD-1… 40.9%
4. Someone else… 9.1%
Sample of Comments
· [Roberts] Unlikely, but possible.
· Jeff Porter (unless Pietzman endorses) or Bob Jones.
· I still feel like Moon is the ideal candidate for today’s GOP primary electorate. He may not have enough money, but he’s PERFECT for the GOP caucus in DC.
· Moon has the natural grassroots support to win the race.
· I voted for Mike Moon. But don’t overlook Mazzie Boyd.
· Democrats winning the Senate race would be my pick.
· Moon is most authentically conservative in the primary.
Who Won the Week?
Eric Schmitt – Takes the lead for the first time in our polling of the US Senate race. 21% undecided means it’s still anyone’s race, but this is the first evidence that Greitens is starting to fade.
Dem Senate prospects – The odds are long, but with Danforth is trying to add a second Republican to the November ballot, Dems’ hopes are still alive.
Elijah Haahr, Nick Schroer, and Andrew Koenig – Mastermind, architect and handler of the HB 126 back in 2019 which included the “trigger” if Roe v Wade was ever overturned.
School Choicers – It wasn’t just the pro-life crowd that got a gift from the Supreme Court this week. Carson v Macon opens the possibility of state funding for religious schools.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Jon Patterson) - $13,000 from Rightpath PAC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from EDKH LLC.
Great Northwest PAC (pro-Rusty Black) - $10,000 from NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-Cindy O’Laughlin).
MO-DSV PAC - $174,823 from Missouri Health Care Association.
RQC PAC - $175,177 from Missouri Health Care Association.
Hruza for Missouri - $10,500 from George Hruza.
Leadership Counts - $9,108 from LydaPAC.
Friends For Charlie Franklin - $15,000 from Charlie Franklin.
Serve Missouri PAC (pro-Tracy McCreery) - $25,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Brandon Koch, Christine Ingrassia, Joe Vaccaro, and the mighty Jason Rosenbaum.
Sunday: Kurt Bahr, Kirk Mathews, Mark Coulter, Steve Cookson, and Dick Aldrich.