MOScout Weekender: Senate 20 Poll - Hallway on US Senate - Bush on Israel - WWTW and more...

Bush Accuses Israel of War Crime

St. Louis Jewish Light reports that “Rep. Cori Bush, a Democrat from St. Louis, has written a policy letter calling the eviction and future evictions of  1,000 Palestinian villagers from the Masafer Yatta, area of the West Bank, a war crime.”

Bush has been critical of Israel before, calling it an apartheid state, which has led to tensions between the congresswoman and the St. Louis Jewish community.

This is one of the fissures that Sen. Steve Roberts hopes to exploit in his primary challenge against Bush.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 20

Survey conducted May 31 through June 2, 2022. 322 likely 2022 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 76%

Unfavorable: 20%

No opinion: 4%

Q2: What is your opinion of Eric Burlison?

Favorable: 32%

Unfavorable: 10%

No opinion: 58%

Q3: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for Missouri State Senate District 20 are Curtis Trent and Brian Gelner. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Curtis Trent: 17%

Brian Gelner: 6%

Undecided: 77%

Q4: Generally speaking, do you think Missouri's gun laws are too restrictive, too loose, or about right?

Too restrictive: 21%

Too loose: 9%

About right: 67%

Not sure: 3%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: US Senate

 I returned once again to the US Senate primary to see how lobbyists viewed the race with two months left.  They’ve eliminated half the field, and largely see Hartzler as the favorite now.  24 replies…

RESULTS

1. Eric Greitens… 16.7%

2. Vicky Hartzler… 66.7%

3. Billy Long… 0%

4. Mark McCloskey… 0%

5. Dave Schatz…. 0%

6. Eric Schmitt… 16.7%

Sample of Comments

·         Only one from rural mo and with rural endorsements, only woman in the field, has all the Blunt/Party infrastructure on the ground in place, enough money, and the state’s leading Republican - Josh Hawley - out front for her.

·         Trump goes with Schmitt and then Schmitt wins.

·         If Trump stays out, and I think he will, Vicky wins. If he jumps in, then it goes to his endorsement and America loses.

·         Schmitt wins if Sheena can produce photos to support her abuse allegations. Otherwise, Greitens wins.

·         [Greitens] Probably throwing away my vote, but looking at this like a death on Game of Thrones, unless I actually see it, I’m not going to believe he’s actually dead…even then, I’m going to question it.

·         Not excited about the field, picked Hartzler but wouldn't be shocked if Greitens or Schmitt win

·         Hartzler will have a strong quarter and the resources to get her name out to the half of primary voters who have never heard of her, whereas Schmitt has little upside potential. She'll need a major anti-Greitens IE, and for Sheena to drop a pic or two.

·         Raping a women and beating his kids has not managed to move Greitens numbers down… at this point nothing is will, he owns a quarter of the primary vote till Judgement Day. At this point that is probably all he needs.

·         [Schmitt] It seems like things are starting to trend in his direction the longer Vicky has a PAC that isn't raising money. This also assumes McConnell & Co eventually hit Greitens and Trump at a minimum stays neutral.

Who Won the Week

Tishaura Jones – Watches her political rivals felled by taking envelops of cash to help is tax abatement.

Ann Wagner – She wasn’t in any real danger, but it probably feels nice that the Democrat who dropped out was the one who was raising the most money, and didn’t have a voting record to attack.

UAW – Huge news with Ford’s Claycomo’s plat adding a third shift and 1,100 more workers.

Dave Schatz – Big ad buy puts him on the air as he charges into the US Senate primary.

Help Wanted

St. Louis City Seeks Federal Lobbyist.  “Consultant shall prioritize securing additional funding for the City of St. Louis… Consultant shall monitor all federal legislation impacting the City and assist the Mayor and her designee(s), in all matters affecting the City which may come before various federal boards, commissions, and agencies…”  See the ad here.

$5K+ Contributions

Better Elections - $100,000 from Article IV (Alexandria VA)

The 100 PAC - $10,000 from John Williams.

The 100 PAC - $10,000 from Yvonne Cordell.

Shamrock PAC - $45,000 from Health Systems, Inc.

Building Communities PAC Inc - $17,450 from O'Reilly Development Company LLC.

Conservative Leaders of Missouri - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.

Missouri Senior PAC - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.      

Missouri Growth PAC - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.    

MO Majority PAC LLC - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company. 

Missouri C PAC - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.  

Missouri AG PAC - $15,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.          

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,419 from Stacy Schusterman.

JanePAC - $10,000 from Greg Twardowski.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Ryan Johnson.

Sunday: Colleen Coble.