MOScout Daily Update: MOScout House Primary Report Part 1 - Roberts Polling Memo - Greitens Calls Haahr RINO and more...

MOScout House Primary Report: North Missouri

Today begins my reports on House primary races.  Unlike past cycles, I’m breaking it up into several reports.  Instead of just plopping down a 100-page tome, this will be more easily digestible.

Today’s covers North Missouri.  Find it here.  Feel free to download it, and share it will clients, colleagues, etc.

·         House 1 – Open seat where Rep. Andrew Allen is termed.  5-way primary.

·         House 2 – Rep. Randy Railsback being challenged.

·         House 3 – Rep. Danny Busick being challenged.

·         House 40 – Rep. Chad Perkinis being challenged.

·         House 41 – Open seat where Rep. Randy Pietzman is termed. 4-way primary.

G&S Report: What Passed

Speaking of massive tomes, you can check out this Gamble & Schlemeier monster report of everything that passed last session.  It weighs in at 94 pages, but it’s well indexed.

See it here.

Exclusive: Roberts Polling Memo

Sen. Steve Roberts’ team see a winnable race, citing their internal polling showing that Congresswoman Cori Bush’s first term hasn’t sealed the deal with many voters in her district. And they believe there’s a “ceiling” to her support.

See their polling memo here.

·         Congresswomen Bush’s votes against the President’s Infrastructure Bill and sanctions on Russia after the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine seem to be having a negative effect on the Congresswoman’s level of support given that she is well-known (8 in 10 voters can rate her) and relatively well-liked (a majority have a favorable opinion). Despite her name recognition and favorability, just one-third of voters say they are planning on supporting her at this time…

·         Currently, just under 1 in 5 voters plan on supporting Roberts (18%) compared to Bush’s initial support of 36%. It is worth noting that 45% of voters are undecided and among voters who know both candidates, Bush’s lead drops to near single digits and a third of these knowledgeable voters undecided at this time…

·         Beating an incumbent is never an easy task, but given Congresswoman Bush’s ceiling of support, the large number of undecided voters, and the district’s alignment with State Senator Steve Roberts’ politics, this is a winnable race for Roberts if he has the ability to communicate with the voters.

Also in CD-1

·         There remains a backlash against Roberts for his alleged sexual assault. At the recent Central Committee meeting, several attendees protested by turning away during his speech.

·         And it’ll be interesting to see where labor goes.  The AFL-CIO didn’t endorse Bush, instead leaving their endorsement open, a likely result of Bush voting against Biden’s infrastructure plan, as well as defense budget bills.

Greitens Calls Haahr a RINO

RINO is the Republican slur of the cycle, hurled at anyone with whom you have a policy disagreement, or personal dislike.

Here Eric Greitens calls former Speaker Elijah Haahr a RINO for suggesting that a Greitens nomination would threaten Republicans retention of the US Senate seat.

Koenig at Cierpiot Fundy

Last week, Sen. Andrew Koenig was the only senator who showed up at a Sen. Mike Cierpiot fundy in St. Louis County.  Congresswoman Ann Wagner was the special guest.

·         Koenig remains one of the Senate’s bridge-builders between the Conservative Caucus and the Regular Republicans.

Baker Does Podcast

Lobbyist Aaron Baker hits the podcast circuit with an appearance on Growing Small Towns.
Listen to it here.

Aaron Baker really loves small towns, particularly his small town of Atlanta, Missouri… In this episode, Aaron talks about motivating people in “micro towns,” those communities that don’t have an Airbnb or a large employer but have people committed to improving the local quality of life. Through small grants, fundraising, and sweat equity, Aaron has worked with others to keep his small town alive; this includes about 100 locals that have volunteered for community workdays to paint, landscape, clean up, and more.

Hawley Hits It Big With Book

Business Insider reports that Senator Josh Hawley earned over $400,000 on royalties from his book, The Tyranny of Big Tech.

See it here.

Regnery stepped in to publish the title after it was dropped by Simon & Schuster in the wake of the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.  Simon & Schuster said it would not publish Hawley in light of his role objecting to the certification of the 2020 presidential election results, the issue which spilled over into violence on the day of the riot.

eMailbag on Unions and Inequality

Regarding Galloway's chart, there have been hundreds of studies and books on income inequality and why it's been rising.  There are a number of factors, but the largest single one (about one-third to more than half, depending upon the study) is declining union membership… But most of [the other factors] are also a result of declining union membership leading to less political clout for unions… That's why the relationship is so direct.

Lobbyists Registrations

Gamble & Schlemeier added Vision for Hope, and Kindred at Home.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Republican Party - $7,500 from Uniting Missouri PAC

Nexus PAC - $20,000 from Nexus Group.

JanePAC (pro-Dueker) - $10,000 from Doug Albrecht.

Citizens for Sawyer Smith - $10,000 from Matthew Sims.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern, Nimrod Chapel, and Trent Skaggs.