MOScout Daily Update: Gregory Ad - Shoehigh to HBS - O'Laughlin for Floor - Dems Vent About NARAL - Watching St. Charles and more....
First in MOScout: Gregory Launches TV
Rep. David Gregory will release his first TV ad this morning. It’s a 15-second spot. See it here.
Gregory opens the contrast with his primary opponent. There’s a picture of Scott Fitzpatrick who Gregory calls an “establishment politician,” while twice referring to himself as an auditor.
· The MOScout/Remington poll last month of this race had 70% of Republican primary voters undecided.
Shoehigh to HBS
Also breaking this morning… Bill Shoehigh will join Andy Blunt’s Husch Blackwell Strategies office in Jefferson City.
· HBS Chairman Andy Blunt said, “Bill’s thirty-year tenure and influence at the capitol has earned him the respect of lawmakers, governors and clients alike. His success and experience bring an almost immediate gravitas to a client’s issue, and we are proud to have him join our team.”
· Bill launched the lobbying firm that bears his name in 1994 and for nearly thirty years has been regarded as one of the best in Missouri as he represented corporations, candidates, and causes. Bill has provided legislative advocacy at the state and local level, public sector business development and political consulting to firms in the healthcare, travel and tourism and technology sectors with a particular emphasis over the years on creating opportunities for market disrupters.
O’Laughlin Joins Race for Senate Floor Leader?
Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin has decided to run for floor leader of the Senate. While the race is still fluid, it appears we’re looking at a three-way race scenario now with O’Laughlin, and Sens. Bill White and Mike Bernskoetter.
O’Laughlin will likely run on her solid conservative credentials, while pointing to her ability to find common ground and get things done. She understands the Conservative Caucus even as she stands apart from them.
Dems Vent About NARAL
A few weeks ago, many Republicans were venting about Missouri Right to Life’s endorsement process which left many pro-life legislators without that organization’s seal of approval.
Now it’s the Dems’ turn. I’d been hearing from a few folks upset with Pro-Choice Missouri’s endorsements. But it seems to be reaching its boiling point now. Word is that even Minority Leader Crystal Quade, among many other Democrats, was denied an endorsement.
· One Dem: They don’t know what to do now that Roe was actually overturned and HB126 is already law. I feel bad for them but damn they need to figure out politics is a numbers game and they won’t win by pushing more people off their team.
Watching St. Charles
A few cycles ago, I found myself captivated by Jefferson County. It was in the middle of a sea-change, and I was curious if Dems could turn back the tide or if the county was simply going to go all Republican.
I think this cycle St. Charles might be the place to watch. It appears to be a microcosm of the split the Missouri Republican Party is facing. Aggressive, Conservative Caucus-esque candidates are facing off against traditional Republicans.
The showdown between Sen. Bob Onder and St. Charles County Executive Steve Ehlmann was expected to be the marquee race among these races. Onder withdrew on the last possible day citing bad timing for his family. But it remains the archetype of these races.
Ehlmann was considered a competent and stalwart Republican. St. Charles has experience continuous growth during his tenure, and there have been no scandals – something that can’t be said for its neighbors in St. Louis County and St. Louis City. But Onder was running to his right saying Ehlmann wasn’t conservative enough – citing his response to the COVID crisis.
One of the simmering issues in St. Charles is a proposal by Sen. Bill Eigel to phase out the county’s personal property tax. Some conservatives find the tax an affront to their sensibilities. They ask, “if I have to pay the government every year for something I own, do I ever really own it?”
Meanwhile the Republicans who have served on school board or on city councils tend to be skeptical of tax cuts. “Yeah, yeah that’s cute,” they might reply, “but we need money to run the basic services that people expect.”
That proposal seems to highlight the difference between the two groups: staid governing experience versus ideological haymakers.
Races to watch…
· Senate 2: Onder has endorsed Rep. Nick Schroer as his replacement. Schroer has confrontational style in tune with the Senate’s Conservative Caucus, while Rep. John Wiemann – a conservative in anyone’s book – is less bellicose.
· House 64: Incumbent Tony Lovasco is being challenged. Mike Swearingim spent twenty years on the local school board, and represents the establishment. He’s endorsed by the police and firefighters. The third candidate, Deanna Self has been active in the local MRL chapter.
· House 106: This race in Tom Hannegan’s old district features Buddy Hardin who’s been a political player for decades, counting operatives, consultants and former governors among his friends. There’s two traditional candidates, Travis Wilson and Linda Sanchez. And one wild card: Ali Graeff. She says the 2020 elections were fraudulent, and she may be the favorite at this point as the other three split the mainstream Republican vote and she corners the crazies. We’ll see.
· House 108: This is Justin Hill’s old seat. Justin Hicks is running on a Conservative Caucus type platform, but having recently moved back, he doesn’t have the deep history with the area that his two opponents do. Matthew Griese is a coach, and Karen Vennard served as alderwoman in Lask St. Louis and has been active with the Realtors.
PD on JeffCo Senate Race
Jack Suntrup looks at the Jefferson County Senate race (Senate 22) and gets some great quotes. Read it here.
· “Here’s my perspective of this race. And I don’t really consider Shane Roden a serious candidate,” [Jeff] Roorda said. “But I’ll add function to the state Senate, Mary Elizabeth will add dysfunction and Dan Shaul will add nothing.”
· “I’ve been a much more productive and responsible legislator than either” Roorda or Coleman, [Dan] Shaul said. “I don’t know how a man on an island, that can’t decide what party he’s in, is going to provide function in the Senate.”
eMailbag on RightPath
· Theory 1: The formation of the RightPath PAC was sold as Wash U donors protecting against the passage of Mike Moon’s endowment tax bill. With Roe versus Wade overturned, movement of that bill is far more remote (and to a large degree, moot) than before. So, why spend millions when the primary issue you were resisting just got solved by the US Supreme Court?
· Theory 2: Pretty clear indication that Jones (vs Brown) and Wiemann (vs Schroer) know they’re in big trouble and are trying to apply public pressure on RightPath to DO something!
· Theory 3: There are several education reformers on the RightPath PAC report that absolutely, positively cannot afford to lose the trust of the Ed reform champions like those amongst the Conservative Caucus.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jacqueline Bardgett, John Bardgett, Erika Leonard, Chris Roepe, and Mark Habbas added Affordable Equity Partners, Inc.
Andy Blunt and Jay Reichard added Microsoft Corporation, Accela Inc, Expedia Group, and VRBO.
Sharon Geuea Jones added MADP (Missourians For Alternatives To The Death Penalty).
Brian Millner added Missouri Community College Association; and deleted Brian Millner.
Steven Tilley, Tom Robbins, Brittany Robbins, and Christopher Schoeman added Everstream Solutions LLC.
Steven Tilley, Tom Robbins, Brittany Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, and Garrett Webb added Liberty Memorial Association.
Erika Leonard deleted Special Learning Center.
$5K+ Contributions
BB Freedom Fund (pro-Ben Brown) - $150,000 from 100 PAC.
Citizens for Morris - $10,000 from Lynn Morris.
JB PAC (pro-Justin Brown) - $40,000 from RightPath PAC.
Mike Tsichlis for Missouri - $14,830 from Mike Tsichlis 837.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jay Ashcroft, Melissa Leach, and James W. Knowles III.