MOScout Weekender: Brown Spent $0 Last Quarter - Lager Hearts Fitz - First Look at July Quarters - Hallway Imagines 2023 Conservative Caucus - WWTW and more...
July Quarters
The Missouri Ethic Commission got hit with a technical glitch yesterday (apparently lost a fiber line). As a result, the website that candidates use to file their quarterly finance reports was offline. MEC said reports filed before midnight would still be considered timely. But as of this morning, there are some campaigns that haven’t filed yet (Roorda in Senate 22, Brown in Senate 26 for example), preventing a full view of the quarter.
I made a spreadsheet. Find it here. It has the state senate primaries as well as statewide races (I threw on “Governor 2024” as well). US Senate and Congressional numbers are run through the Federal Election Commission website, so were unaffected by the failure at MEC.
At this point with a flood of money coming in from various PACs, I wonder how important candidate committees are in the US Senate race.
I’ll have some analysis of the state senate and state house races next week. In the meantime, here are a few interesting things I noticed…
Conservative Justice PAC
Funded with two big checks - $125K from Ketchmark & McCreight P.C., and $125K from Holland Law Firm, the Conservative Justice PAC has some money to spend. Their treasurer is former Republican State Rep. Tom Burcham (who is Tom Burcham?). On this report they sent…
· $30K to 1776 PAC (pro-Schroer PAC, but see note below please)
· $30K to 417 PAC (pro-Trent)
· $30K to Shield PAC (pro-Carter)
· $30K to Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC (pro-Eigel)
The play here is not 3-D chess. It’s pretty straight forward. For years, Republican majorities have gnawed away at trial attorneys’ livelihood. Every year it’s another tort “reform” bill which caps damages or statutes of limitation or streamlines processes.
How do you stop Republican supermajorities from accomplishing this? Conservative Caucus. It’s the easiest way to gum things up. Rep. Nick Schroer is certainly a Conservative Caucus member if he wins; Mike Carter and Rep. Curtis Trent are playing footsie with the CC; and of course, Sen. Bill Eigel is the unofficial leader of the caucus.
Missouri Federation for Children PAC
This pro-school choice organization only had $50K cash on-hand with this quarter, but don’t let that fool you. Since the report deadline, they’ve reported more than $625K in fresh money. On the July report are independent expenditures in three Republican House primaries. I expect we’ll see more. They supported…
· Holly Jones (House 88, Eureka)
· Brad Christ (House 96, South St. Louis County)
· Ann Moloney (House 114, Jefferson County, running against Ken Waller)
Other Filing Bits
· In Senate 10, Sen. Jeanie Riddle’s campaign committee spent about $9K in support of Rep. Travis Fitzwater’s bid to replace her.
· In Senate 12, as of his July report Rep. J Eggleston had not yet spent any of the $100K he loaned his campaign.
· In Senate 16, Sen. Justin Brown’s candidate committee, Team Justin Brown, spent $0 in the last quarter! Huh? He’s being challenged by Rep. Suzie Pollock. His PAC spent some money. [EDIT NOTE: I’m told this was part of MEC tech problems and an amended report will be filed]
· International Union of Operating Engineers Political & Educational Fund spent $25K opposing the re-election of Congresswoman Cori Bush. Labor unions were upset with her opposition of the infrastructure bill.
· In CD-7, Sen. Mike Moon only raised about $3,000 last quarter. Hard – maybe impossible – to win a congressional campaign with that little money coming in. Regardless of grassroots or free media.
Herzog for Fitz
In today’s large contributions (below), Herzog Contracting Corporation gave $100K to the pro-Scott Fitzpatrick PAC. The money chase in the auditor’s race remains pretty close, so this could have an impact.
Stan Herzog passed away about three years ago. He was one of MOGOP’s mega-donors. And his companies continue to give to political causes. Former Sen. Brad Lager is the leader of Herzog now.
A Note on 1776 PAC
One Republican consultant nudged me that I’m a little off by continuing to called the 1776 PAC “pro-Schroer.” They say yes it is pro-Schroer, but it’s also pro other Republican candidates, so I shouldn’t think that its entire war-chest will be aimed to aid Schroer alone.
MOScout Poll
No MOScout poll this week.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Conservative Caucus 2023
I asked lobbyists, “How many members of the Senate Conservative Caucus do you think there will be next year?” 19 replies.
RESULTS
1. 4 or less … 15.7%
2. 5 -7… 79%
3. 8 or 9… 5.2%
4. 10+… 0%
Sample of Comments
· 5-7, but that still feels high. They’ll be the loudest Superminority in the building whether they have 4 or 7 members.
· 5, here's my math: Eigel, Hoskins, Koenig, and Moon return. Incumbent regulars all win. Brattin heads to Congress. Trent and maybe Coleman win but don't really join the caucus (akin to Rehder and O'Laughlin). Either Schroer or Brown win.
· Trick question. The folks coming in won't pledge total allegiance to the CC -- they will have one foot in each camp and both factions of the GOP will have to work for their vote. 4 OG members and plus 3 less reliable accomplices
· They lose some and win some. Also Brattin is going to Washington.
Who Won the Week?
Cindy O’Laughlin – Her decision to run for floor leader is the latest indication of her evolution as a senator. She quietly stepped away from the Conservative Caucus, and worked on building bridges.
Rick Brattin – This week he pulled down the sole NRA endorsement in his race. And the Club for Growth came in heavy with a $1 million independent expenditure. Brattin seems to have the momentum in CD-4
Mike Parson – With Eric Schmitt in the hunt for the US Senate seat, and Scott Fitzpatrick likewise at least a coin toss away from being auditor, the governor is looking at the possibility of once again getting to appoint statewide office-holders. Who he elevates may end up being his most important legacy as governor.
Carpenters – They’re baccckkk. Just a year after financial scandal shut down their St. Louis office, the Carpenters’ union is playing in politics again. Just this week by sending $100K into the St. Charles Republican state senate primary.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for a Responsible Budget (Pro-Fitzpatrick) - $100,000 from Herzog Contracting Corporation.
Kingdom Leadership PAC (pro-Travis Fitzwater) - $10,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Missouri Conservative Alliance (pro-Tate) - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC.
Protect Missouri Workers PAC - $25,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.
AGC of MO PAC - $,7450 from Emery Sapp & Sons, Inc.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $15,000 from Phoenix Home Care.
JanePAC (pro-Dueker) - $10,000 from Michael Shanahan.
JanePAC - $5,001 from St Louis County Police Association PAC.
Committee to Elect Travis Partney - $5,500 from Travis Partney.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to John Sondag and Jeanette Mott Oxford.
Sunday: Rep. Adam Schwadron, Jeff Rainford, Guy Black, David Klarich, Richard Callow, and Jeffrey Earl.