MOScout Daily Update: New Anti-Greitens Ad - State Senate Rundown - Change to Ed Funding Coming? and more...

New Ads

·       The latest ad from the Anti-Eric Greitens Show Me Values PAC again uses quotes from Sheena Greitens’ affidavit with devastating impact.  Their first ad was entitled Afraid (see it here).  This one is called “Enemy.” See it here.

·       Missouri Firearms Coalition released a web video for their preferred candidate in CD-7, Eric Burlison, while hitting Mike Moon and Jay Wasson.  See it here.

·       And Eric Schmitt released a new ad playing on his height, and also taking swings at his two rivals – Greitens and Hartzler. See it here.

State Senate Races

Tomorrow I’ll have my final predictions for Senate and House races.  Here’s a quick rundown of where things seem to stand on those hot Republican Senate primaries…

Senate 2 (Onder termed) – The general consensus is that Rep. Nick Schroer is in the lead.  We’ll have a new MOScout poll on this race Saturday. (The other races will also be polled during this final sprint as well).  But a couple folks believe that Rep. John Wiemann is within striking distance and there are enough undecideds to put him over the top.

Senate 10 (Riddle termed) – Mike Carter is considered the favorite simply because he has outspent everyone.  I’m told Bryan Spencer has been working very hard, but I’m not hearing from anyone who thinks he can actually win. Rather it’s Rep. Travis Fitzwater who has the momentum – and late money coming in.  Carter is still in front, but if there’s a late shift or undecided break asymmetrically, Fitzwater is the one to watch.

Senate 12 (Hegeman termed) – Unanimous consensus that Rep. Rusty Black is the favorite here.  If Rep. J Eggleston wins, it will truly be an upset among the Jeff City crowd.

Senate 20 (Burlison for Congress) – Rep. Curtis Trent is considered the favorite.  There’s a rumor that the $150K that the Carpenters recently put into the Faith, Family & Freedom PAC is headed to help Brian Gelner.  Like Senate 2, this race isn’t over yet, but Trent is probably ahead.

Senate 22 (Wieland termed) – This is a true toss-up.  If I had to pick right now (and I will have to tomorrow), I’d probably guess that Rep. Dan Shaul pulls it out.  Different polls have it in various states of a tie.  With Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Shaul hitting each other, more folks are entertaining the notion that former Rep. Jeff Roorda could take this one.  He’s pulling in labor money and has a natural law-and-order message.  I’ve resisted saying it, but… We’ll see.

Senate 26 (Schatz termed) – Another close race.  Rep. Nate Tate has been grabbing some outside money lately making what I thought was a largely two-person race into something more of a three-way tug-of-war.  Most folks would give Ben Brown the edge here over Bob Jones, but it’s going down to the wire and Jones is definitely in it.

The Incumbents – I’m sticking with my forecast that all the incumbents are safe.  Folks have been keeping an eye on Sen. Justin Brown’s race in Senate 16.  And lately there’s been more chatter about Jill Carter (see her website here) challenging Sen. Bill White on the right side.  Still, I think they should both be fine.

Remember the Dem Auditor Candidate?

I’m obviously focused on the primary election right now, but a quick look at the July report of Alan Green, the Democratic candidate for auditor, shows how anemic fundraising is right now for his campaign. He raised $7,317, and has $12,193 on-hand.

School Funding Change Coming?

Margie Vandeven presented an update on MSIP 6 to the Senate Interim Committee on Education this week. 

During the hearing, Sen. Lauren Arthur said, “I'm going to oversimplify things here, but MSIP determines performance districts; the expenditures of performance districts reset the state adequacy target. So has the department contemplated, or do you have a sense of how the changes to MSIP will affect our education formula and state education funding?”

In MSIP 6, the annual performance report and classification scores are based on 70% on performance and 30% on continuous improvement. In MSIP-5, it was 100% on performance. 

Vandeven acknowledged that by adding continuous improvement points, the department might designate more schools as performance districts. “We don't know where schools will be yet, but I do think that having so many districts in those higher levels does impact the formula.”

Sen. Karla Eslinger added, “It pretty much opens the whole equitable funding piece, so we have to be very careful with what that looks like because we don't want to do harm.”

Cole Seeks Judgeship

Former Missouri Republican Chair David Cole is among those applying for the vacancies on the Missouri Court of Appeals, Southern District, created by the retirements of Judges Gary Lynch and William Francis Jr.  Cole was appointed as circuit judge for the 39th Judicial Circuit last year by Governor Mike Parson.

The other applicants: Alan M. Blankenship, Becky J.W. Borthwick, Carolyn G. Buschjost, Brian G. Ellsworth, Ginger K. Gooch, Matthew P. Hamner, Joseph L. Hensley, Michael O. Hendrickson, James E. Meadows, Kathryn A. Millington, Bryan E. Nickell, Steven A. Privette, Scott A. Robbins, Sherry A. Rozell, Megan K. Seay, and Raymond E. Williams.

eMailbag on Anti-Tate Ad

The Missouri Federation for Children Nate Tate ad doesn’t say he voted to raise the gas tax *by* 30 cents, it says he voted to raise the gas tax *to* $.30.

Lobbyists Registrations

Mike Gibbons and Tricia Workman added Coalition of Ignition Interlock Manufacturers.

$5K+ Contributions

Catalyst PAC - $50,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.

JEFF PAC (pro-Roorda) - $25,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers PAC.

417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $6,400 from Viceroy PAC.

Gannon For Jefferson County - $20,000 from Let's Go Brandon PAC.

Hruza for Missouri - $6,000 from George Hruza.

Make Liberty Win Missouri - $376,992 from Make Liberty Win Federal.

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC - $13,000 from Defense of Liberty PAC.

Missouri Leadership Fund - $14,800 from Missouri Senate Leadership PAC.

Saint Charles Organization of Republicans - $14,900 from Missouri Senate Leadership PAC.

Henbest for Presiding Commissioner - $6,130 from Andrew Henbest.

Committee to Elect Matt Major - $7,350 from IYF Billboards.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Congresswoman Cori Bush, Sally Faith, and Christian Morgan.