MOScout Daily Update: Senate Prognosis - House Battleground Districts - Scoring Tuesday Night and more...
Senate Prognosis: Another Year of Fighting
Assessing Tuesday’s results, top of mind for many lobbyists is the state of the senate, and of course the composition of the Conservative Caucus.
Ahead of the elections the conventional wisdom was that if the Conservative Caucus diminished in numbers, they’d be less disruptive and the ability to get bills through the Senate would be increased.
· Remember: not everyone wants a functional Senate. Dems may stomp their feet at the death of the Old Senate, but they’re doing pretty well when weeks vanish into The Mike Moon Book Club.
The math: There are five returning members of thew Conservative Caucus (Brattin, Eigel, Hoskins, Koenig, and Moon). There are three new Sen-elects who very clearly signed up for membership: Ben Brown, Jill Carter, and Nick Schroer.
And there are two more who 100 PAC supported, but whom lobbyists think are more likely occasional-to-frequent allies of the Conservative Caucus without being lockstep: Curtis Trent and Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
One conservative reader echoed this sentiment telling me, “To suggest that respected legislators such as Schroer, Coleman and Trent are going to let Bill Eigel direct their words and actions is absurd. Actual conservative leaders in their own right, they will want to accomplish not obstruct.”
What This Means
· I still expect that Sen. Caleb Rowden has a solid Republican majority to become pro tem.
· The floor leader’s race is more fluid. I’m told that Sen. Andrew Koenig and Cindy O’Laughlin are both in right now, as well as Sen. Mike Bernskoetter. I’m not sure Koenig and O’Laughlin will ultimately run against each other, and depending how their votes migrate (or don’t) Bernskoetter could be the beneficiary (or not). I would guess that the Conservative Caucus would attempt to wield their bloc of votes in exchange for a floor time commitment on one of their issues: transgender athletics? CRT? Hard to know what their top priority is.
· Meanwhile, there’s likely an undercurrent of resentment. Incumbents who were targeted will likely blame the Conservative Caucus. And folks who are up in two years may be wary of Conservative Caucus amendments which will be used as political ammo in the future. That means we may see more standing divisions to table amendments in the session ahead to limit recorded votes.
House Battleground Districts
I made a starter list of House “battleground” races. There may be additions or subtractions in the next week or two, but these are the districts – using historical voting indexes – that look potentially competitive. I’ve swapped out the primary spreadsheet in the 2022 Watch for this new one. There are 17 on my initial list. Incumbents are asterisked.
House 12 (North KC / Parkville) - Tom Hutsler against Jamie Johnson
House 14 (Kansas City) - Eric Holmes against Ashley Aune *
House 16 (Kansas City) - Chris Brown * against Fantasia Rene Bernauer
House 17 (Liberty) - Bill Allen against Mark Ellebracht *
House 21 (Independence) - Dakota Worrell against Robert Sauls *
House 29 (Independence, Rowland resigned) - David Martin against Aaron Crossley
House 34 (Lees Summit, Roeber resigned) - J.C. Crossley against Kemp Strickler
House 47 (Columbia, Basye termed) - John Martin against Adrian Plank
House 92 (St. Louis County) - Bob Mahacek against Michael Burton *
House 96 (St. Louis County, old Gregory district) - Brad Christ against Leslie Derrington
House 98 (St. Louis County, Gunby running for congress) - Ryan Higgins against Deb Lavender
House 105 (St. Charles) - Adam Schwadron * against Cindy Berne
House 106 (St. Charles, late Hannegan district) - Travis Wilson against Ron Odenthal
House 132 (Springfield) - Stephanos Freeman against Crystal Quade *
House 133 (Springfield, Trent to Senate) - Melanie Stinnett against Amy Blansit
House 135 (Springfield) - AJ Exner against Betsy Fogle *
House 136 (Springfield) - Craig Fishel * against Stephanie Hein
Sinquefield’s Other Wins
One MOScouter notes that Rex Sinquefield did well on a number of fronts Tuesday night – not just the US Senate race. “He ran the tables in the state senate races that he got directly involved in… Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Curtis Trent, Anyone except Nate Tate, and Travis Fitzwater, including a$50K late donation when the smart money was betting against him… Scott Fitzpatrick too.”
Sinquefield also gave to the Missouri Federation for Children PAC…
MFC PAC
The education reform organization Missouri Federation for Children PAC was active in primaries. Here’s their scorecard as best I can tell…
WINS
Travis Fitzwater (Senate 10)
Anyone but Roorda (Senate 22)
Anyone but Tate (Senate 26)
Jeff Myers (House 42)
Jim Schulte (House 49)
Tony Lovasco* (House 64)
Holly Jones (House 88)
Brad Christ (House 96)
Lisa Thomas* House 123)
Darin Chappell (House 137)
Mitch Boggs* (House 157)
LOSSES
Milton Schaper (House 41) losing to Doyle Justus.
John Simmons* (House 109) losing to Kyle Marquart.
Cecelie Williams (House 111) losing to Gary Bonacker.
Ann Moloney (House 114) losing to Ken Waller.
Elaine Edgar (House 147) losing to John Voss.
Lobbyist Registrations
Eapen Thampy deleted Rocky Kingree.
$5K+ Contributions
Joe Cronin for SCCMO - $6,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS Area PAC.
MO Land Title PAC - $10,000 from MO Land Title Association.
MSCEW PAC Federal Cmte - $6,000 from IBEW Local 124 Voluntary Political Fund.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Robin Carnahan, Dick Wiles, and Don Soph.