MOScout Daily Update: Mary Ellen Ponder - Shawn Furey - Matt Thompson - Jim Lembke - - Hannah Beers Sutton - Johnny DeStefano and more...
There’s a firehose worth of results from last night’s primary election. Here’s the quick first impressions, I’ll circle back on some of these themes in the coming days.
US Senate
Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the Republican nomination for US Senate. The results largely mirroring the final MOScout/Remington poll over the weekend.
· Schmitt won the most important places: where people are. Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler won a fair number of rural counties, but Schmitt trounced her in the population hubs. He won the St. Louis area overwhelming, winning Jefferson County St. Charles County, and St. Louis County by margins of 3:1. Schmitt doubled her totals in vote-rich Greene County and Jackson County. Eric Greitens finished third, winning just three of Missouri’s 114 counties, all in the bootheel: Dunklin County, New Madrid, Pemiscot.
· Good night for Axiom. The firm repped Mark Alford (winning in CD-4) and Sen. Eric Burlison (winning in CD-7), but Schmitt’s is the cherry. He’s another US Senator for the Jeff Roe portfolio of politicians.
· Hero of the Night. Accolades were handily tossed around for Johnny DeStefano who helmed the anti-Greitens PAC which pummeled Greitens for weeks. It was credited with driving Greitens out of contention and into the teens. Politico explored the genesis of the anti-Greitens PAC in this article. Rex Sinquefield figures prominently in the article. In fact, one insider put the Sinquefields at the top of their “winners” list: Biggest winner tonight was Mary Ellen Ponder and the Sinquefields. First meaningful statewide primary wins.
· Trudy Busch Valentine won the Democratic nomination pushing past Lucas Kunce. Kunce ran competitively throughout the evening though always trailing by a few points. Schmitt enters the general election as the heavy favorite given Missouri’s partisan make-up. Even with the addition of Republican John Wood running as an Independent, it’s an uphill battle.
Auditor
Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick easily defeated Rep. David Gregory (65-35).
· Team Parson cheers. Between Schmitt and Fitz, Governor Mike Parson is looking at two statewide offices he gets to appoint. A few weeks ago, I ran starter lists of who could be in the running for those positions. The jockeying will surely heat up now.
State Senate Races
· Good night for Conservative Caucus. They won all three open seats targeted by Jim Lembke’s 100 PAC: Nick Schroer (replacing termed Bob Onder), Mary Elizabeth Coleman (replacing termed Paul Wieland), and Ben Brown (replacing termed Dave Schatz). Jill Carter upset Sen. Bill White. (See her website here). She’ll likely caucus with them. Sens. Mike Moon and Rick Brattin lost their congressional races, so they’ll be back next session as well. That would bring their numbers to 9. Some have said that MEC will be sporadic ally rather than a full-fledged member of the CC; we’ll see.
· Incumbent Scares. Aside from White losing, incumbents held in the senate. Though a few did receive scares. Sen. Justin Brown narrowly eked by Rep. Suzie Pollock (credit Hannah Beers Sutton who started weekly conference calls with Team Brown a year ago sensing the race would be tough); Sen. Mike Cierpiot came in just below 50%, but the split opposition gave him breathing room; Sen. Mike Bernskoetter won with 55% thanks to a powerful showing on his home turf of Cole County; Sen. Lincoln Hough coasted to re-election, but even his opponent scored 43%.
· Splintered Fields. The most exciting Republican primaries were defined by multicandidate races where the victor ultimately won with 30-ish% of the vote. In Senate 10, despite Mike Carter’s massive spending, Rep. Travis Fitzwater pulled a come from behind victory with 32%. (One MOScouter called Matt Thompson an “MVP” for his work on the campaign that “everyone gave up on.”) In Senate 22, Mary Elizabeth Coleman won with 34%. In Senate 26, Ben Brown won with 39%.
· Senate Leadership Race Impact. Obviously, White’s loss shakes up the floor leader race because he’s no longer a candidate. The Conservative Caucus’ hand was strengthened, though with 9 members they still need to build a coalition to successfully back a candidate.
· Trent Joins Senate. Rep. Curtis Trent handily beat Brian Gelner in Springfield. One observer told me they thought Gelner might have been a better fit for the other Springfield seat (Hough).
· Only one seat in play in November. For those looking ahead, it looks like there will only be one race to watch in the general election: Senate 24 (Schupp termed) where Rep. Tracy McCreery will face George Hruza.
State House Races
It was a tough night for incumbents. Six lost.
· In House 2, Rep. Randy Railsback was defeated by Mazzie Boyd. This race had been on the radar, but Boyd’s margin was stunning: 62%-38%.
· In House 73, two incumbents squared off after being drawn together. Rep. Raychel Proudie beat Rep. Mike Person easily.
· Democratic Reps. Neil Smith and Annette Turnbaugh, both trying to win their first re-election, were beaten.
· Rep. Wiley Price, dogged by ethics trouble, lost to Del Taylor who raised money and put together a good campaign.
· The most surprising incumbent to loss was Rep. John Simmons. Kyle Marquart upset him with 168-vote margin. One MOScouter: “[Marquart] worked hard, knocked doors, put up signs… I think Simmons took him for granted.”
· Meanwhile, the incumbent I thought was most vulnerable, Rep. Michael Burton, held on with 51%. Republicans are already eying this seat; they’ll make a run at it in November.
St. Louis County
· Biggest shocker of the night might be Rep. Shamed Dogan losing the Republican nomination for St. Louis County Executive. Katherine Pinner (Who? See her website here) came out on top with 56% of the vote. Dogan’s campaign committee and PAC were both sitting with $100K in the bank at the 8-Day mark, as he was conserving his war-chest for the general election.
· On the Democratic side, Sam Page dispensing with Jane Dueker wasn’t a surprise. He won with a little less than the 70-30 margin I expected.
· In CD-1, Congresswoman Cori Bush held quite easily. Not shocker there. Sen. Steve Roberts had a free shot, and he took it.
Jefferson County
· Tough night for Rodens, Rep. Shane Roden lost in Senate 22, and wife Shannon lost her race to become the Jefferson County Collector
· Sen. Paul Wieland, facing a flood of money from Team Graves, was beaten by incumbent Dennis Gannon for Jefferson County Executive.
Kansas
I don’t really follow national politics, but lots of chatter among Dems last night about the Kansas vote on abortion restrictions. See the NYTimes coverage here. Kansas voters resoundingly decided against removing the right to abortion from the State Constitution, according to The Associated Press, a major victory for the abortion rights movement in one of America’s reliably conservative states.
· We’ll see with Valentine or other Dems decide this is the play to loosen the Republican grip on Missouri.
eMailbag: Team Schmitt
Say what you want about Eric, but Schmitt has the best team in Missouri politics. That’s all there is to it. Shawn Furey built that team over the years and Jeff Roe brought strategy and muscle. Missouri donors believe in the team and the entire organization is incredibly disciplined. For us campaign nerds, that race was fun to watch - and the outcome was very predictable.
Lobbyist Registrations
Robyn Schelp added Kids Win Missouri; and deleted Missouri Disability Empowerment.
Jacqueline Bardgett, John Bardgett, Erika Leonard, and Chris Roepe deleted Behavioral Health Group.
$5K+ Contributions
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $10,000 from Blackford Brauer.
Missouri Common Sense PAC (pro-Gelner) - $125,000 from Faith, Family & Freedom PAC.
Access MO - $5,192 from Wendy Roemer.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Dan Engemann, Larry Wilson and Bev Randles.