MOScout Daily Update: Eigel To Explore Gubby Run - The Case for Hruza - Legalization Polling - Exporting MAGA? and more...

Eigel Announces Exploratory Campaign for Governor

In a Facebook ad with pictures from last weekend’s event, Sen. Bill Eigel says that his team is setting up “exploratory campaign committee and the infrastructure for a possible statewide campaign for Governor.”

What It Means

·       An Eigel candidacy would upturn the current scenario of as head-to-head match between Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe.  Its impact is unclear.  Some think Eigel would take votes from Ashcroft’s right-side base.  Others think Ashcroft’s name ID makes him the beneficiary of a multi-candidate race, as it makes it harder for a single viable alternative to emerge.

·       This could be the first step of a two-step move for Eigel to running for lieutenant governor.

·       Also, this announcement shows we’re becoming a state where the primaries are where the action is.  The cycles seem to be running August to August, instead of November to November…

The Case for Hruza

I’ve been referring to Rep. Tracy McCreery as the favorite to replace Sen. Jill Schupp in Senate 24.  That’s based on the district being a Democratic lean as well as McCreery’s strong start hitting the doors.

But here’s the alternative side, the case for her opponent, George Hruza.

·       For starters, Hruza supporters say the district is A LOT tighter than the composite numbers I’ve been using.  Donald Trump’s unpopularity in this district in the last election skewed them toward the Democrats.  Their evidence: “In 2020, Eric Schmitt won the district, Mike Kehoe lost it by 1.2%, Scott Fitzpatrick won by 1.4%, and Jay Ashcroft won the district by 3.2%.”  In 2022, Trump isn’t on the ballot.

·       Second, Hruza is their perfect candidate.  If Republicans could construct their ideal candidate for this district, it wouldn’t look much different than Hruza.  He has a compelling personal story (son of Holocaust survivor, successful doctor); he has no baggage or “bad” votes; and he has a deep network of contacts.

·       Finally, the GOP is all-in.  Hruza has fundraising capacity, but there won’t be any shortage of funds from the Senate Republican team.  And they’re sending in some of their top talent to the race with Jamey Murphy and Frank Catanzaro helping Team Hruza.

Legalization IP Polling

The Remington/MOScout poll last week had opponents of the marijuana proposal cheering, but one reader says it’s in perfectly fine shape. 

And he points to shortcomings in previous MOScout polls on initiative petitions. “You really need to find a way to poll ballot initiatives better. The robo polls work fine for candidates but not for ballot questions.” 

Four years ago when the last marijuana proposals were on the ballot, the Remington/MOScout poll (three weeks out) had it passing with only 53% while in the final results, it coasted to passage with an easy 66% approval.

Similarly, the minimum wage that year was polling at 52% a month out and finished with 62% passage.

Meanwhile the candidate polling was right on, accurately capturing Josh Hawley and Nicole Galloway leading over their opponents (Claire McCaskill and Saundra McDowell).

The theory is that in automated polls, respondents can easily answer the short horse-race questions.  But with longer in-depth questions, they default to No if they find it at all confusing.  It makes sense to me.

·       The legalization question this week: Q1: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to remove state prohibitions on purchasing, possessing, consuming, and selling marijuana for personal use for adults over the age of twenty-one; impose a six percent tax on the retail price of marijuana to benefit various programs, and allow persons with certain marijuana-related non-violent offenses to have records expunged.

Exporting MAGA?

One MOScouter writes me that the “Parliamentary election results in Sweden (!) last night have a Missouri connection. Dark Prince Gregg Keller has been advising the Sweden Democrats (think: the Swedish version of MAGA) for several years. They surged to a best-ever 2nd place finish and are poised to lead a new center-right parliamentary coalition there.”

·       From the Guardian: The prospect that the far-right Sweden Democrats, who appeared to take more than 20% of the poll, may for the first time achieve direct influence over government policy marks a seismic shift in a country far better known for its liberal traditions.  The SD emerged from Sweden’s neo-Nazi movement in the mid-1990s and still struggles to shake off accusations of extremism.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson announced five judicial appointments to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Southern District and the 4th, 7th, 23rd, and 31st Judicial Circuits.

·       The Honorable Becky Borthwick, of Springfield, was appointed to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Southern District.

·       Mr. Brian Tubbs, of Mound City, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 4th Judicial Circuit.

·       Mr. Daniel White, of Kansas City, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 7th Judicial Circuit. 

·       Ms. Julianne Hand, of DeSoto, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 23rd Judicial Circuit.

·       The Honorable Jerry A. Harmison Jr., of Springfield, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 31st Judicial Circuit. 

eMailbag; Urban v Rural

The email bag comment that no one ever complains about their state taxes being too high clearly needs to spend more time with business folks in St. Louis and Kansas City… Rather, the complaint would not be that the tax is too high, but that the urban areas fund the lower achieving areas of the state and the money sent from STL and KC allows outstate politicians to pursue an agenda that is anti-urban center and out of touch with the values of these areas. There is a backlash growing among investors and businesses in STL and KC against the extremism being practiced at state level and I think you may see this come to a head in the next three to four years if the extremism rampant in Jeff City continues…

Bat in the Halls

Take a minute break today and watch this fun video uploaded to Facebook by the House Communications team of an attempt to capture a bat that was recently flying through the halls of the capitol.  See it here.

Help Wanted

Spectrum Seeks Director, State Government Affairs.  “The Director of Government Affairs will be responsible for developing, coordinating and implementing government affairs strategies and activities that advance the company’s interests primarily at the state and local level in Missouri. The position may be located out of St Louis/Town and Country, Kansas City or Jefferson City, MO. The job may include representing the company before state and local governments and administrative agencies, franchising and procurement, community affairs, as well as strategically planning, managing and executing other activities and events that advance the company’s overall objectives. The following offers more detailed descriptions of the kinds of responsibilities associated with the position.”  See the ad here.

Lobbyist Registrations

Paul Mouton added Missouri Clean Energy District.          

Ryan Johnson deleted Exemplar Public Affairs LLC, and People United for Privacy.

James Harris deleted Missouri Council of School Administrators.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sam Brownback, Drew Dampf, and Steve Helms.