MOScout Weekender: Senate 24 Poll - Hallway on Eigel's Bid for Governor - Who Won The Week and more....
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 24
Survey conducted September 13 through September 16, 2022. 441 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 8th General Election for State Senate are George J Hruza, the Republican; Tracy McCreery, the Democrat and the Libertarian LaDonna Higgins. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
George J Hruza: 42%
Tracy McCreery: 50%
LaDonna Higgins: 1%
Undecided: 7%
Q2: Generally speaking, which party do you think does the best job handling the issue of crime?
Democrats: 41%
Republicans: 45%
Not sure: 14%
Q3: Generally speaking, which party do you think does the best job handling the issue of education?
Democrats: 50%
Republicans: 43%
Not sure: 7%
Q4: Generally speaking, would you consider yourself pro-choice or pro-life?
Pro-Choice: 53%
Pro-Life: 38%
Not sure: 9%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Governor Eigel?
I asked lobbyists, “What's the impact of Bill Eigel entering 2024 gubernatorial race?” 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. He’s the front-runner… 0%
2. Hurts Ashcroft… 45.4%
3. Hurts Kehoe… 9.1%
4. No clear winner/loser… 45.4%
Sample of Comments
· Eigel and Ashcroft pulling from the same base of voters and donors. The Trial Attorneys have already ponied up for Ashcroft. Unless Eigel can find a mega donor or two to support him, he will struggle to raise the resources he needs and will probably pivot to another statewide office.
· I picked no clear winner/loser only because there wasn’t a “this is hilarious” option. He may want to jog down the hall during special and ask Dave Schatz what it’s like to run statewide against candidates with money and statewide name ID.
· Eigel will grandstand with this platform to build a network, expand base, but ultimately does not run for Governor.
· Ashcroft name ID is independent of the number of individuals running. As much as us readers of MoScout believe Kehoe could be a good Gov, there’s this whole campaign thing beforehand. And Eigel just takes up percentage points from the pool of non-Ashcroft available voters.
· Bill’s strategy remains constant by pursuing the top spot. That strategy has failed in securing senate leadership positions, maybe it will yield a different result in a statewide race. Maybe he tries to leverage party leaders to clear the LG primary in exchange for bowing out of Gov race. Maybe.
· "Who is Bill Eigel"---99.99999999% of Missouri voters.
· Cuts both ways. Eigel strips from Ashcroft’s natural base (helps Kehoe) but also adds another candidate with limited name ID, which helps Ashcroft.
· His impact of course will only be felt it he sticks in it. We'll see if theres a groundswell of support for him or not soon enough. At the end of the day I think Eigel will only inflict superficial and unintentional wounds to Ashcroft but ultimately we will only see Ashcroft and Kehoe emerge as viable.
Who Won the Week?
Mark Mantovani – Gets a third shot at the St. Louis County Executive spot. Will he be able to retain some of his previous Democratic voters while adding Republicans to his team? We’ll see…
Holly Thompson Rehder – Draws a huge hometown, non-lobbyist crowd for her annual fundraiser on the Scott County riverbank, featuring a fire-and-brimstone speech from Congressman Jason Smith. Attendees raved about her heart-wrenching new memoir, "Cinder Girl."
House Dems – Dobbs effect, of the dozen or so battleground districts, it may give them the boost they need an extra % or two. One Missouri Republican operative told me that polling has generally been drifting against Republicans since the Dobbs decision.
Bruce DeGroot – Never has a man looked more relaxed than he who just resigned his seat to double his pay while staffing his best friend.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Access MO - $10,000 from Dana Sandweiss.
Access MO - $10,000 from Tim Stern.
Jackson County 4 Kids - $30,000 from Childrens Funding Accelerator.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,600 from Hurlbert for Missouri.
Centene Corporation Political Action Committee d/b/a Centene Missouri Federal PAC - $52,800 from Centene Corporation Political Action Committee Centene Plaza.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Governor Mike Parson, Rep. Travis Smith, Bill Webster, Margaret Kelly, Tim Van Zandt, Tom McDonald, and Ryan Burke.
Sunday: Chris Carter and Don Calloway.