MOScout Daily Update: Special Session Takes Shape - Senate Leadership Race - Haffner to Hire Shaul? - Quade's Pitch and more....

Special Session Bills Get Hearings Today

The special session starts in earnest today.  The Senate Appropriations Committee is set to hold a hearing on 13 of the bills filed last week dealing with tax cuts and tax credits.  The bills dealing with other topics – transgender athletes, for example – were sent to Rules.

I’m told the plan is to vote a couple bills out of committee today, and bring them to the floor for debate – and hopefully perfection – tomorrow.

Sen. Lincoln Hough’s bill is expected to be the main vehicle.  They may also roll a few bills together for a second bill – a back-up vehicle in case things get derailed.

It sounds like the Senate consensus is moving toward something close to the governor’s plan: accelerating the tax cuts already in the pipeline.  However, this compromise would also add new income tax cuts in the future – based on new triggers in state revenue being hit. 

In this scheme, Hough’s tax rebate idea would be dropped.  Similarly, calls for a corporate tax cut wouldn’t be included.

Some think they’ll need the governor to amend his call for the new triggers to be added.  They expect cooperation from the governor on that front.

But…

Landmines exist in this plan.  One such scenario: suppose Sen. Mike Moon (or anyone really) tries to add a corporate tax cut on the floor.  I believe leadership’s position is that anything outside the call is out of order.  So an amendment like that disallowed.  What would Moon’s response be?  It very well could be to open a book and filibuster – because his reading of the constitution is that it’s not out of order.  Would he be joined by Sen. Bob Onder, Rick Brattin and others?

The House, meanwhile, will hold a hearing on the agriculture tax credits.  In theory, the Senate will pass the tax cut bill this week, while the House passes the ag credits bill.  Then they’ll swap bills next week.

Also the House will hold a hearing on Rep. Dan Houx’s sports betting bill.  The House – taking a different view of the limits imposed by special session – is apparently preparing to pass the sports betting bill.  I don’t think the Senate picks it up without a change in the governor’s call.

Quade’s Pitch

Minority Leader Crystal Quade makes her pitch on Instagram.  See it here.  Her roadmap back to relevance starts by delivering House Dems from their superminority status.  To do that, Dems need to pick up 6 seats in November.  Dems say they can flip 8 seats if they simply win all the districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020.

Is it doable?

·       On the one hand, Biden isn’t as popular as he was in 2020, and Trumps’ not on the ballot to energize Dems in those suburban swing districts. 

·       But on the other hand, the Dobbs ruling has given Dems the boost they missing just a few months ago.

Shaul to Join Haffner Staff?

Word is that Rep. Mike Haffner is planning to hire Rep. Dan Shaul as his chief of staff should he prevail in the House Floor Leader race.

Everyone I talk to says that race is still very close (too close to call) between Haffner and Rep. Jon Patterson.

Some wonder if the Shaul hire is being discussed to help Haffner add a couple of key votes to his column (perhaps from Shaul’s JeffCo platoon?).  But others think there could be a backlash – from conservatives who disliked Shaul’s map, or from his bruising senate primary?

I guess like so much in this life… we’ll see.

Senate Leadership Race

The Senate leadership race for floor leader is looking like a textbook case for game theorists. 

By the sound of it, none of the three candidates (Sens. Mike Bernskoetter, Andrew Koenig, and Cindy O’Laughlin) will be able to muster a first-round majority.  In the current spreadsheet (which is basically me eyeballing things and making guesses) has Bernskoetter at 11, with Koenig at 9, and O’Laughlin at 4 in the first round.  Obviously, I haven’t asked any senators how they’re voting, so this is pure speculation.

In that scenario, O’Laughlin is out and Bernskoetter probably consolidates with a majority on the second round.

However, if Koenig were to decide not to run, I think the FCC (Former Conservative Caucus) votes head to O’Laughlin as preferable to Bernskoetter.  And O’Laughlin could win (or we could be looking at a tie!).  But in a three-way race, I’m not sure O’Laughlin can get to the second round.

·       Sen. Caleb Rowden appears safe to ascend to the pro tem spot.  And he could seemingly work with any of the candidates.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Mike McGhee, Rachel Bringer, and Alex Salsman.