MOScout Daily Update: Schwadron for SOS - The Next Speaker (after the one after the next one) - Early 3Q Numbers - Pro-Plocher Checks and more...

Quick Friday update…

Schwadron in for SOS

Rep. Adam Schwadron announced yesterday that he is entering the Republican secretary of state scrum.  He joins Sen. Denny Hoskins, and Shane Schoeller, and in the coming weeks Sen. Caleb Rowden.

Schwadron, from St. Charles, can claim some geographic advantage as St. Louis County and St. Charles are a big source of Republican primary votes.

·       Schwadron made the announcement on former Speaker Tim Jones’ radio show.  He pointed to his time on the House Elections Committee as a source of his passion on elections, which the secretary of state’s office oversees.

Ripple Effect

This is tough news for the House Republican Campaign Committee.  Schwadron’s House 105 is a swing district, and losing their incumbent will make defending it harder in the upcoming cycle.

·       Schwadron won re-election by a hair, just 101 votes, last year.

·       The district voted for Joe Biden (+2.2%) in 2020.

Plocher Lands Sinque and Tilley Money

Speaker Dean Plocher, now officially declared as a candidate for lieutenant governor, landed a check from mega-donor Rex Sinquefield ($25,000) as well as checks from the so-called Tilley PACs ($40,000) associated with former Speaker Steven Tilley.

·       These checks came into Plocher’s United Missouri PAC, and were received after the September 30 deadline, so they won’t be included in the numbers we see filed next week.

The Next Speaker (After the one after the next one)

Term limits keep the legislative leadership on a conveyor belt.  These days each House speaker gets two years.  Rep. Jon Patterson will take the gavel in January 2025.  After him (January 2027), it’ll very likely be whoever wins the Floor Leader race next November – either Jamie Burger or Alex Riley.  And while it’s obviously early to be speculating on January 2029, here a list of state representatives who are on lobbyists’ radars as potential speakers…

·       Brad Christ (St. Louis County) – Jumped into come tough issues, very likable, good fundraiser.

·       Wendy Hausman (St. Charles) – One of several women in the mix, as well as from the St. Louis area. By the time 2029 comes around, the Republican Caucus might be looking for both in a speaker.

·       Justin Hicks (St. Charles) – Impressive resume puts him on track for leadership.

·       Ben Keathley (St. Louis County) – Good fundraising district. Turned heads with his primary win over Brunner in 2022.

·       Cameron Parker (Dunklin County) – Considered one of the most substantive freshmen legislators.

·       Jeff Myers (Warrenton) – If not speaker, likely finds his way into leadership in some capacity.

·       Tara Peters (Rolla) – Not a particularly great district from a fundraising perspective, but could have a little extra juice as a realtor.

·       Melanie Stinnett (Springfield) – perhaps too moderate, and many peg her to run for state senate when Lincoln Hough is termed.

Kunce 3Q

The Messenger reports that Lucas Kunce “will report entering October with $1.7 million cash on hand. The campaign says that's more money at this point in the election cycle than any previous Missouri Senate challenger in the last two decades.”

·       The problem for Kunce: Recent polling from Emerson College (see it here) showed him down 13 points in a head-to-head with incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley.  (His primary rival St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell was only down 10.)  Kunce has to spend his money to win the Democratic primary AND pivot to start nibbling away at Hawley’s lead.

Dinkins 3Q

In Senate 27, Rep. Chris Dinkins will report over 200 contributions totaling more than $83,000 raised between her senate exploratory committee and Red Hawk PAC for the third quarter.

·       Her campaign committee will report more than $190,000 cash on-hand.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jorgen Schlemeier, Jeffrey Brooks, John Gamble, Kathryn Gamble, David Jackson, and Sarah Schlemeier added Jefferson City Medical Group.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $25,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.

Missouri United - $10,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri LLC.

Missouri United - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC.

Missouri United - $10,000 from Missouri Senior PAC.

Missouri United - $10,000 from Missouri Growth PAC.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Branco Enterprises, Inc.

Missouri Leadership Forum - $7,500 from Roden Landscaping.

Missouri Leadership Forum - $7,500 from Site System Landscaping.

Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Sellenrick Construction.

Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Witte Bros. Exchange, Inc.

Vote YES for Tourism - $10,000 from Taney County Partnership.

MO Cable PAC - $5,080 from Mediacom Communications.

MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Jay Patel.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Hardy Billington, Larry Pleus, John Mayfield, St. Louis City Assessor Mike Dauphin, and Linda Black Thomure.