MOScout Weekender: Current Issues Poll - Hallway on Vulnerable Incumbents - Who Won the Week and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: Current Issues
I asked about a hodge-podge of current issues this week. Key takeaways…
· Middle East War: Missourians are clearly more sympathetic to the Israelis. It’s across party lines and every demographic.
· Independent big by Robert Kennedy Jr.: At this point he would siphon a couple percentage points from each Biden and Trump, but there’s no obvious beneficiary from his candidacy.
· STL reputation on crime: There’s a partisan split on this issue. Republicans are much more likely to think that St. Louis City’s reputation as a crime hot spot is deserved.
· Time of use: Missourians lean against the notion of charging more for energy during peak times and less during other times. But the high “not sure” means this sentiment could change as folks become more educated on the issue.
Survey conducted October 11 through October 12, 2023. 806 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Thinking about the war breaking out in the Middle East; are you more sympathetic to the Israelis; OR; are you more sympathetic to the Palestinians?
Israelis: 76%
Palestinians: 4%
Not sure: 20%
Q2: If the candidates for President were the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 52%
Joe Biden: 39%
Undecided: 9%
Q3: If the candidates for President were the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Joe Biden, and the Independent Robert Kennedy Jr., for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 49%
Joe Biden: 34%
Robert Kennedy Jr: 9%
Undecided: 8%
Q4: The City of St. Louis was recently named the most dangerous city in the United States. In your opinion, is that reputation warranted?
Yes, St. Louis truly is a very dangerous place: 48%
No, St. Louis is not a dangerous place: 23%
Not sure: 29%
Q5: Instead of a flat rate for electricity, some cities have time of use rates. Residents pay more during high-usage hours and less for power they use at other times. Generally speaking, do you think time of use rates are a good thing?
Yes, they are a good thing: 23%
No, they are not a good thing: 37%
Not sure: 40%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On Vulnerable GOP Sens
I asked lobbyists, “Which Republican senator is most vulnerable to losing a primary?” 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. Jason Bean… 7.4%
2. Rick Brattin… 66.7%
3. Karla Eslinger… 7.4%
4. Elaine Gannon… 7.4%
5. Mike Moon… 11.1%
Sample of Comments
· 3-way race. Two of the 3 candidates locking down the same voters. Fundraising will likely play a roll…
· Haffner running in Cass County creates a path to split Cass and opens the door.
· Moon is toast when the right opponent emerges.
· 3-way primary means Brattin loses. Time to join Team Houx if you haven’t already.
· If a credible challenger is found, Moon is unlikely to be re-elected.
· I picked Brattin considering his announced challengers but still think he's the favorite as the incumbent
· [Brattin] Two top tier primary candidates. Significantly changed district from the one where he was elected. His overall lack of fundraising gives him the edge over Eslinger.
Who Won the Week?
Lucas Kunce – Big SEIU endorsement, and another strong quarter.
Freshmen Republican women – It’s been a long time since we’ve had a woman Speaker of the House. But when I asked about potential speakers in the current Republican freshman class, four of the names in the mix were women. The day could be coming again.
Vivek Malek – We’ll get the official numbers next week. But from the large contributions to his PAC, it appears Malek extended his money lead his quarter.
HDCC – Rep. Adam Schwadron’s announcement that he’s running for secretary of state instead of re-election should put his St. Charles seat in play for Dems. It’s a Biden district ripe for flipping.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
HOMEFRONT PAC (pro-Webber) - $15,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $8,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government.
Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $5,200 from Drury Development Corporation.
CN-MO PAC - $40,000 from LS Power Tomorrow, LLC (Brunswick, NJ).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Charter Communications.
MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Michelle Davis.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeremy LaFaver, and Casey Guernsey.
Sunday: Chrissy Sommer, Lane Koch, and Dean Morgan.