MOScout Weekender: Brattin Has Big Lead In Early Senate 21 Poll - Lobbyists on Ethics Reform - WWTW and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: Brattin Starts With Lead in Senate 21
Survey conducted October 18 through October 20, 2023. 304 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q: Possible candidates in the Republican primary election for State Senate are Rick Brattin, Mike Haffner and Dan Houx. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Rick Brattin: 57%
Mike Haffner: 16%
Dan Houx: 12%
Undecided: 15%
Q: Generally speaking, do you think Missouri is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track?
Right direction: 49%
Wrong track: 35%
Not sure: 16%
Q: The state legislature has considered legalizing betting on professional sporting events. Generally speaking, is that something you favor or oppose?
Favor allowing sports betting: 39%
Oppose allowing sports betting: 50%
Not sure: 11%
Q: How important is it to you that your State Senator is a strong supporter of Donald Trump?
Very important: 48%
Somewhat important: 20%
Not very important at all: 28%
Not sure: 4%
Q: Generally speaking, do you think it’s okay for a legislator to make a compromise in order to get something passed?
Yes, it’s okay to compromise: 43%
No, they should not compromise: 31%
Not sure: 26%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Ethics Reforms
I asked lobbyists, “Has the Jeff City ethics climate improved since CLEAN (no lobbyist gifts, wait period on revolving door)?” 26 replies…
RESULTS
1. Yes. Those reforms were good; things are better… 11.5%
2. They made little or no real impact… 42.3%
3. No. Things have gotten worse… 46.2%
Sample of Comments
· I like not being expected to buy everything
· The lobbyist gift ban has pushed all of that underground or through the campaign bank accounts. It’s also made everything more cliquey. Going to a committee dinner to hang out with people I don’t like is fine if someone else is buying. But if a lawmaker has to pay, they’d rather spend the time with people they enjoy.
· The revolving door thing is good for my business. I’m not convinced it has an impact on ethics, but it’s helpful that there’s a government-mandated barrier to entry for the most qualified people who could seek to be my competition.
· The only real impact is that career paths for hard-working legislative staffers have been severely limited.
· Fewer gifts for sure. Fewer lobbyist bought meals etc…. However, I think we are seeing that no matter what you do those in power will abuse it.
· No impact. It’s more difficult to track money that is funneled through PAC’s.
· It's like the old saying "water always finds a way". You can add all the rules and roadblocks you want.
· Total disaster!! Just created shell PACs for lobbyists. The waiting period has been punitive for staff employees.
· Wait period + gift ban = fewer relationships, more division.
· It’s consolidated influence to a smaller number of lobbyists that can stack clients/PACs to wield influence.
· No lobbyist gifts...you just have to find an entity that's not a principal or better yet shroud it in "campaign activity" and then no one is the wiser.
· Waiting period & revolving door...any lobbyist in the building can name someone that isn’t or didn’t follow that law and the only thing it did do was keep those that are not willing to break the law for 2 years (ie someone with morals - also known as "an upstanding member of society") to toil in low paying state jobs wishing they could get out.
· Dark money is far more corrupting than any of the things they outlawed.
· The need for real ethics reform has always been on the campaign side. Weak laws and an even weaker watchdog.
Who Won the Week?
Kenny Ross – “I know no one wants to be fired or go through this but Kenny Ross won the week. Landing in the Senate is a win.”
Will Scharf – Joining Donald Trump’s team of lawyers seems like the ultimate power move toward lassoing the biggest endorsement possible.
Joe Pereles – The Democrat’s candidate committee now has more cash than any of the Republicans in Senate 15 – and Pereles landed a contribution from the uber-Republican Drury clan.
Lincoln Hough – A man with cash has options. What’s Hough running for next? With $600,000 between his candidate committee and PAC, Hough has options.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from Drury Development Corporation.
American Dream PAC - $47,175 from Missouri Leadership Forum.
American Dream PAC - $25,000 from GJ Grewe Inc.
Local 41 Political Action Fund - $15,845 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC Federal Committee.
Majority Forward - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.
MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Carrie Almond.
International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $75,000 from IBT DRIVE.
Citizens For Tommy Siam - $12,000 from Tommy Siam.
MO-DSV PAC - $96,138 from Missouri Health Care Association.
RQC PAC - $97592 from Missouri Health Care Association.
Kansas City Regional Association Of Realtors Missouri RPAC - $9,364 from Missouri Realtors PAC, Inc.
eMailbag
· Re: benefits cliff: Crystal Quade is funny because Rob Schaaf was the initial author of the bill before she was. And before him it was someone else. This is the problem with term limits. Everybody thinks their ideas are original.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Derek Ramsay, David Kent, and Jay Swearingen.
Sunday: Caleb Rowden, Rocky Miller, and Chris Kelly.