MOScout Weekender: Poll on IPs - Hallway Hearts Rowden - Who Won the Week and more...

“Middle Ground” Pro-Choice IP Starts Ground Game

Press release: Signature gathering has officially begun on a ballot measure to give voters the chance to amend Missouri’s abortion law in 2024. The ballot measure would enshrine access to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy with extended exceptions for rape, incest, fatal fetal abnormalities and if the pregnancy threatens the health and safety of the woman. Women and doctors would be protected from criminal and civil penalty. The measure also enshrines access to contraception.  “Missouri has the most extreme abortion ban in the country. It makes it dangerous to be a mom in Missouri and gives rapists more rights than victims. Voters deserve the opportunity to change it,” said Jamie Corley.

Remington/MOScout Poll: IPs

Today’s poll uses ballot title language to access Missouri voters’ starting views of various proposed initiative petitions. Keep in mind, I’ve found that we get higher negatives the more complicated a question is over the phone.

·       The first question is language for proposed legalization of sports better.  Even accounting for higher negatives, it confirms the views of some folks I talk to that sports betting is much less popular among the general public than it is “inside the Jeff City bubble.”

·       The second and third questions are from the court’s latest rewriting of Ashcroft’s summary of pro-choice IPs after the ACLU lawsuit (not the Corley IPs noted above).

·       The fourth question is from an IP submitted by Stinson’s Greta Bax.  Reasonable gun regulations appear to be well positioned to pass in Missouri.

Survey conducted November 15 through November 16, 2023. 711 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See full results here.

Q1: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to allow regulated sports wagering to entities licensed by the Missouri Gaming Commission including mobile licenses to sports wagering operators?

Yes: 26%

No: 54%

Not sure: 20%

Q2: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference presumed invalid?

Yes: 41%

No: 46%

Not sure: 13%

Q3: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to remove Missouri’s ban on abortion?

Yes: 48%

No: 37%

Not sure: 15%

Q4: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to prohibit any person from knowingly selling a firearm to a person under eighteen years of age?

Yes: 61%

No: 29%

Not sure: 10%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: On GOP SOS Race

I asked lobbyists, “Who's likely to be the Republican SOS nominee?”  22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Valentina Gomez… 0%

2. Denny Hoskins… 13.6%

3. Caleb Rowden… 81.8%

4. Shane Schoeller… 4.5%

5. Adam Schwadron… 0%

6. Someone else… 0%

Sample of Comments

·       Rowden will raise the most money and therefore, will win.

·       If Adam had money I think he's the best communicator in a GOP primary, but I picked Rowden.

·       Denny might have the right message at the right time. Plus the Hallway isn’t the Republican primary electorate

·       Caleb is a hard worker and has a proven track record, including defeating former senators in his House and again in his Senate race.

·       Money will play a big role in all races and certainly will in down ticket races. Rowden is a strong fundraiser.

·       waaaaaaaaay too early for anyone to pretend to have an educated prediction, but I predict Caleb.

·       MEC should run

·       This is a race to see who can get the most money and define themselves. Right now [Rowden] seems to be the best bet to do that.

Who Won the Week?

Andrew Bailey – Landed two traditional endorsements (Cattlemen, and Firefighters) while continuing to launch MAGA jabs (like a brief opposing the judge’s gag order on Trump).

MO Marijuana Industry – Celebrates its one-year anniversary of legalization with $1 billion in revenues.  Even the recent hubbub with revoking a manufacture’s license is good long-term for the industry as it gives customers confidence that safety rules are being enforced.

VLTers – Lackluster polling from MOScout this week about how voters would view sports betting legalization undermine the theory that an IP threat could be used as leverage on the legislative process.

Bill Eigel – Every time a state senator gets into a fight with a governor, the state senator wins.  Evey time.  Always elevates them.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

DougPac (pro-Beck) - $10,000 from O'Brien Law Firm, P.C.

Ameren Missouri Political Action Committee - $8,002 from Ameren FED PAC (Washington, DC).

Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $5,000 from Centene Management Company.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Nick Ragone, Randy Dunn, Brandon Ellington, Charlie Puyear, and Tim Person.

Sunday: Fred Dreiling, Tom Crawford, Brianna Lennon, and Kenny Jones.