MOScout Weekender: Revenue Projections Cut - Green to Schmitt - Hallway on CD-1 and more...
1 Big Thing: Leaders Cut Revenue Projections
Governor Mike Parson announced that his office and House and Senate leadership agreed on a consensus revenue number for the coming year. As part of those projections, they cut their estimate of how much revenue the state is expected to receive this fiscal year. And next year they’re projecting a basically flat year, up a tiny .2%.
Why It Matters
· This is a big deal. In the context of 3% inflation, they amount to real declines in state revenue.
· And while there is a large cash balance to cushion the blow, the coming year’s appropriations will be subject to much more scrutiny than last year.
Explainer on the normal gamesmanship in these calculations…
The legislature has the “power of the purse” to appropriate money. But the governor has the constitutional duty to ensure a balanced budget. If revenue start to come in below projections, the governor can “withhold” spending money that’s appropriated as he chooses, de facto making cuts and seizing the appropriation power. For this reason, generally, legislators like lower estimates. And if revenue comes in faster, they add it to a supplemental budget.
Green to Schmitt
Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer announced on Twitter that his chief of staff, long-time building denizen Brad Green, was going federal. He’s leaving Luetky’s office and will join Senator Eric Schmitt’s team.
Remington/MOScout Poll
The Weekly Poll will return next week.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On CD-1
I asked lobbyists, “What's the likely outcome in the First Congressional District?” 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. Cori Bush will win the Democratic primary by a wide margin… 22.7%
2. Cori Bush will win the Democratic primary by a narrow margin… 45.5%
3. Cori Bush will lose the Democratic primary by a narrow margin... 31.8%
4. Cori Bush will lose the Democratic primary by a wide margin... 0%
Sample of Comments
· Unless another candidate can capture the pro choice/PPMO crowd, Bush wins.
· I think voters are still gravitating toward bomb-throwers and will therefore re-elect Bush, albeit by a narrower margin than last time
· If AIPAC is willing to give $20 million to get someone to primary Rashida Tlaib they will find the money and candidate to defeat another top target.
· Will be closer than the last one, but I think people underestimate how batshit crazy the city primary voters are and they will put her over the top.
· She will win but be damaged and beat in the next cycle
· If Bush wins minority vote, she wins.
Who Won the Week?
Vivek Malek – His proposal to disinvest state pensions from Chinese investments was seconded by his primary rival and appears to have legs has an issue.
Bob Onder - $500,000 into a political action committee likely to boost his LG bid. Money talks, so there’s really nothing more to say here.
Jim Moody – He’s been saying the sky (revenues) is falling, and now the consensus revenue number is indeed coming down. The tax cuts are coming home to roost?
Chris Dinkins – Her stance against resettlement of Palestinian refugees in Missouri will resonate with rural Republican voters, and help in her Senate primary.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $10,000 from Blackford Brauer.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from HDQ Government Affairs (Dallas, TX).
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Friends of Missouri State University PAC.
Raffety For Assessor - $42,952 from Roger Raffety.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Brent Hemphill, Theckla Spainhower, Jeanne Sinquefield, and Stephen Bough.
Sunday: Jill Ott.