MOScout Daily Update: DESE Bombshell Coming? - Eigel Fundy at Tilley Space - Onder 2024? - Dems Eye Senate 15 and more...

First, a PSA… a fundraiser starts tonight for Rachel Bauer.  She’s policy director for Missouri Lottery and former chief of staff to Denny Hoskins.  She’s been beset with medical problems.  Learn more here.

1 Very Big Thing: DESE Bombshell Tomorrow?

Tomorrow the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education is set to release the Annual Performance Report data.  Word is circulating that the numbers do not look good.

DESE has said that because this is the start of the MSIP (Missouri School Improvement Program) 6 cycle, the 2022 APR is considered a pilot year and will not be used for accreditation purposes.

But the numbers – if they’re as bad as some people are expecting – will still send shockwaves across the state.

·       One source says that the numbers would result in 100+ districts becoming “provisionally accredited.”  For context, there’s about 500 districts in the state and 5 were provisionally accredited last year.  Many of these districts will be in rural areas. 

How this will playout is hard to know.  It could fuel legislation, like Sen. Jill Carter’s SB 85, to remove districts from DESE’s control.  Or it could lead to introspection about the state of local education?

What To Watch

·       How much of this will be blamed on the COVID “lost year of learning?”  And how much will be blamed on systemic failures within Missouri’s educational system?

·       What will the charter school numbers show?  If they’re among those with lower numbers, it’ll undermine the arguments of school choice advocates.

The Week Ahead

Both chambers are expected to be sprinting this week ahead of next week’s Spring Break…

·       In the Senate, transgender issues are big priority targeted by the majority.  Sen. Mike Moon is sponsor of the vehicle.  He’s not known for compromising or striking deals.  But one assumes that’s what will be required to avoid a Democratic filibuster.  So we’ll see how that goes…

·       In the House, there’s a whole host of issues which could come up.  Open enrollment is said to be in the cue; I assume they’ll third read the St. Louis Police takeover; Sports betting is on tap to come out of Rules today as well as Rep. Dirk Deaton’s tac cut bill. Both could come to the floor.

Eigel Fundy

Sen. Bill Eigel’s exploratory committee for governor is having a fundraiser this Thursday…

What’s Interesting

The location (lobbyist Steven Tilley’s facility) is raising some eye-brows.  Tilley has been in the Ashcroft 2024 camp. 

·       One source says that Eigel and Tilley have always had a good relationship.  This could simply be a personal courtesy.  But it also kind of looks like a hedge if the Ashcroft campaign doesn’t live up to its expectations.

Onder in 2024?

Looks like we should all add Bob Onder to our 2024 Watch list.  Here he is speaking at the recent Lawrence/Barry County Lincoln Days.

 ·       As one MOScouter says: you don’t drive across the state to speak at various Lincoln Days unless you are a statewide elected or you’re serious about becoming a statewide elected.

Williams in Senate 23

Matt Williams has formed a campaign committee to run as a Democrat in Senate 23.  This is the St. Charles district where Sen. Bill Eigel is termed.  It’s a lean Republican district.  Rep. Phil Christofanelli is considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination.  Williams is an attorney.  See his bio here.

eMailbag on Lavender for Senate 15

One Dem writes in to take issue with idea that Senate 15 would be a waste of resources for the Party…

Senate 15 toplines in recent years:

·       Obama 2012: 35.6% of the two-way vote

·       HRC 2016: 42.0%

·       Biden 2020: 48.3%

·       TBV 2022: 49.1%

SD15 saw the largest leftward swing of any Senate district from 2012 to 2020. It also has the highest share of college grads. The Dem nominee for president will likely carry the district in 2024. Gaining seats requires winning close districts, not writing them off a year before filing opens.

Lobbyists Registrations

Ashley Lawson added Missouri Prosper, and Parents Bill of Rights PAC.

Ruthie Barko added TechNet.                 

Richard McIntosh added Stride, Inc.        

Sean Ostrow added Dish Network LLC, and DirecTV, LLC.         

Matthew Well added Citigroup Washington Inc.

Henrio Thelemaque added Recovery House.

Doug Nelson added Home Builders Association of Central Missouri.

Doug Nelson and Health Clarkston deleted Carfax Inc.

Dale Amick deleted Missouri Travel Council Inc.

Jennifer Durham deleted Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Aaron McMullen, Kit Bond, and Christine Page.