MOScout Daily Update: Poll: 50% to 57% Matters - Ballot Candy - Hallway Hearts Fitzwater - Who Won the Week and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: IP Language
I asked about components to Jobs for Justice’s initiative petition filings. Interesting that they’re all around above the 50% level needed to win passage now, but below the new proposed threshold of 57%.
And it’s obviously why the legislature is adding the citizens only “ballot candy” language. It polls at 70%, while a higher threshold polls at 40%.
Survey conducted April 26, 2023. 1,096 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Q1: There is a proposal to increase minimum wage on January 1, 2025 to $14.00 per hour, and then increase it $1/hour each year until 2027, when it would be $16 per hour.
Support: 54%
Oppose: 30%
Not Sure: 16%
Q2: There is a proposal to require all employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 25%
Not Sure: 20%
Q3: There is a proposal to require all employers to provide meal and rest breaks.
Support: 59%
Oppose: 20%
Not Sure: 22%
Q4: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to allow any city, town, village or municipality containing more than ten thousand inhabitants including incorporated and unincorporated cities and towns and all counties to enact ordinances or regulations which establish and enforce standards or requirements relating to minimum or living wage, paid or unpaid vacation and sick leave, and paid or unpaid meal periods or break times but shall not apply to employees of the state or other political subdivisions? If an election were held today, would vote yes to amend, or no?
Yes: 21%
No: 44%
Not sure: 35%
Q5: There is a proposal to amend the constitution to allow only citizens of the United States to qualify as legal voters.
Support: 70%
Oppose: 16%
Not Sure: 14%
Q6: There is a proposal to amend the constitution to require amendments to the constitution be approved by a sixty percent vote.
Support: 40%
Oppose: 27%
Not Sure: 33%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Future Floor Leader
I asked lobbyists, “Which Senate freshman is most likely to be Floor Leader someday?” 21 replies/ I asked the same question in February to see if this session had any impact on how senators were viewed. The answer: not really. February results in parathesis.
RESULTS
1. Rusty Black… 14.3% (4%)
2. Ben Brown… 0% (0%)
3. Jill Carter… 9.5% (8%)
4. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 4.7% (8%)
5. Travis Fitzwater… 52.3% (60%)
6. Nick Schroer… 0% (4%)
7. Curtis Trent… 19.1% (16%)
Sample of Comments
· I'm picking Carter because she is by far the least likely to get it. I like all of the other senators, but getting this designation is the kiss of death for future ambitions.
· I picked Jill Carter, but I also picked Tricia Derges to be the star of her freshman class. Take that how you will.
· Curtis is even-tempered and strategic. He has the right skill set and is well respected in the caucus.
· MEC is easily the most conservative *adult* in the room.
· Fitzwater has the most experience in the building which gives him a head start already then turns around and is the only first term Republican to not cave to irrational political pressure and vote against the DEI amendment on the budget.
· I expect Black to stay on the Appropriations track and Coleman, Trent, and Fitzwater to rise to the top.
· [Fitzwater] Seems like the most natural to bridge the divide between the Senate factions.
Who Won the Week?
Senate Dems – Landed a good deal on initiative petition reform. Pretty good chance to beat it at the ballot in November.
Anti-Trans Care Advocates – They somehow got the governor whose signature issues are workforce development and infrastructure to elevate the regulation of gender-affirming care to must-have, special-session urgency.
Lincoln Hough – It was a long slog, but the Senate Approps chairman got his budget through the Senate unscathed.
Former Conservative Caucus – Have they mellowed? Seems their strategy has shifted ever so slightly to be more accommodating. No longer trying to kill legislation and raise the ire of their colleagues, they now seem content to roll-call amendments putting folks on the record (for August 2024?).
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from Tegethoff Development, LLC (Indianapolis, IN).
Greene County Democratic Central Committee - $7,461 from Lampert For Missouri.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Stephanie Hein, and Brad Bates.
Sunday: Andy Blunt, and Julie Murphy Finn.