MOScout Weekender: MM on Senate 1 - Hallway on Future Conservative Caucus - Who Won the Week and more...

Missouri Mapper: Senate 1

The Missouri Mapper takes a look at Senate 1.  See the full report here.

In the race for US Senate, Trudy Busch Valentine carried SD1 by 9,984 votes (13.7%). Incumbent State Senator Doug Beck (D) is eligible to run for re-election. The redistricting process made SD1 less Democratic-leaning – losing the suburb of Rock Hill, and parts of Kirkwood and Maplewood (which are all strongly Democratic) and gaining portions of Southern St. Louis County that lean Republican. By 2020 Presidential numbers, redistricting cut the Democratic margin in SD1 by about 5% - which may encourage Republicans to make a serious play for this seat. However, even with these boundary shifts, Democrats still would have prevailed in most recent contests.

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Future Conservative Caucus

I asked lobbyists, “Will the Senate's ‘former’ Conservative Caucus disappear after Sens. Bill Eigel and Denny Hoskins are termed out?” 27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Yes… 29.7%

2. No… 55.5%

3. Not sure… 14.8%

Sample of Comments

·       There will still be a voting block of conservatives, but one that is more principled and less disruptive.

·       Won't be the same, but I expect several of the ultra-conservative members to continue to stand together on issues

·       There will still be a group w/ the same interests but think it will be less cohesive in their attempts to burn everything down.

·       They have been effective without repercussions from the public or other legislators, with continued money for campaigns it’s hard to see why there would be less conservative caucus members and not more.

·       I said yes, but I don't think the tactics and ideals completely disappear from every senator's psyche. As Einstein said "Energy cannot be created or destroyed, it can only be changed from one form to another"

·       Eigel clearly is in charge and pushes conservative caucus members into the fight and steps away. However the Senate and the House are more conservative than they used to be and someone will step in to fill the void. The caucus will be more rational on some issues but won’t go away.

·       So long as the Republicans are split across moderates who recognize value of limited government, conservatives who want to expand govt reach into more social / cultural areas and libertarians who are naturally distrustful of any government coercion, a conservative caucus of some variety will survive.

·       There will always be Senators that don’t get the policy focus, leadership position, or chairmanship they wanted to step in to take their place…to say nothing of those running for higher office.

·       I don’t think it will disappear but it may be less of a factor. Several of the senators will remain and they are strong in their views. It will depend on if they pick up more members and stay organized.

·       It will likely still exist as it does in some informal capacity but it won’t be with the same intensity. That isn’t to say it won’t get taken out for a spin again in the future as it will always be under consideration

Who Won the Week?

Vivek Malek – While I expect Malek to have a tough race against Rep. Cody Smith, he keeps recording checks for his PAC while Smith is taking his time to jump into the race.

Doug Richey – Big kick-off event.  Rep. Kurtis Gregory is probably the favorite of the hallway – especially after Richey’s DEI shenanigans caused turbulence with the budget, but Richey is running hard.

Jamie Birch – Tapped as the governor’s new Director of Policy.

SEMO political watchers – Folks think that Sen. Holly Rehder will be announcing an LG bid eventually.  When she does the Senate 27 Republican primary will likely be the hottest race next year.  Folks in Southeast Missouri will have a front row seat to a free-for-all.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $17,175 from D Kim Lingle.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Lee Mechanical Contractors, Inc.

Boeing Political Action Committee Missouri PAC - $70,000 from The Boeing Company Political Action Committee (Arlington, VA).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Alex Curchin, Jim Krieder, Kevin Austin, Shelley Kenney, and Dani Moore.

Sunday: Brandon Koch, the mighty Jason Rosenbaum, Christine Ingrassia, and Joe Vaccaro.