MOScout Daily Update: IP Timeline and What It Means for Sports Betting - Speaker Patterson? - Morse Gets Primary and more...

1 Big Thing: IP Window Closing

Two years ago yesterday, Legal Missouri filed initiative petition 2022-059 with the secretary of state’s office.  It was ultimately voted into the constitution, legalizing recreational marijuana in Missouri.

But that success is a cautionary tale for any other would-be IP efforts eying the 2024 ballot: the window is closing.

Legal Missouri just squeaked by getting enough signatures; and the Better Elections’ ranked-choice voting effort (which filed their IPs the same week) failed to gather enough signatures to qualify.

·       It takes about two months from filing IPs to gaining approval to circulate the petitions. 

·       And with the tight labor market, it’s harder and more expensive to find signature collectors.

What It Means

·       If the Cardinals, or any pro-sports betting entity, wants to have a credible initiative petition moving to circumvent the legislature, they’re running out of time to start the process. 

·       In 2022, IPs for sports betting were filed October 27, and approved for circulation on December 16.  However, they never got off the ground – perhaps in part because of the late start.  Perhaps because they were always planned just as a threat.

·       Still, even to use the IP process as leverage to entice action from the general assembly, you have to be actually collecting signatures with a real effort underway.  And that effort should be starting now.

Grays and VLTs

Sports betting has been stalled in the legislature amid a debate over “gray machines” which already exist in Missouri, and efforts to allow video lottery terminals (VLTs).

Recently…

·       St. Louis County Councilman Ernie Trakas called for a “crackdown” on grays.

·       And Rep. Ben Baker bemoaned their invasion of the public sphere and evasion of regulation.

But I don’t get the sense that anyone thinks anything will change soon.

There’s a sensible deal to be had among this three-way tug-of-war…

·       Allow sports-betting (gives the casinos new revenue),

·       Allow some specific number of VLTs operated a limited number of venues (opens up new market to VLTs),

·       Grandfather in the gray machines (brings grays some type of immunity from legislative or prosecutorial attacks).

There’s only one problem with this deal: NOBODY wants it. Not the casinos (who abhor the revenue they’d lose to VLTs); not the grays (who are doing just fine thank you very much); and not the VLTs (who view the grays as unfair competition).

So, to repeat, I don’t get the sense that anything will change soon.

Driving the Day: News Laws

Governor Mike Parson will make rounds this week with lots of ceremonial bill signings (he’s already signed them) as new laws take effect today.

In fact, he’ll “sign” HB2 (Budget bill for education funds) twice! 

·       Tuesday at Marquette High School.

·       Wednesday at Fort Zumwalt East High School.

Implications of Speaker Patterson

The lobbyists who work the hallways of the capitol building during session are nearly unanimous in expecting that House Floor Leader Jon Patterson will be voted “speaker-designate” in a couple weeks when the House Republican Caucus meets over Veto Session.

House Republicans adopted this early vote years ago as a way to avoid a divisive contest within the caucus when they should be focused on winning House races to maintain or expand their majority.

But this early designation will have two impacts…

·       First, it will cement Patterson as the go-to guy.  Speaker Dean Plocher’s days of influence are already waning, and this will hasten that trend. Legislators will quickly shift their attention to jockeying for next session’s chairmanships; lobbyists will do the same knowing that their future successes and failures will depending on how their bills are treated by Patterson next session.

·       Second, I expect it’s a boost to Rep. Jamie Burger’s floor leader bid.  The House herd has often, but not always, had an impulse to mix their leadership team: the gruff with the glib; the hard-line with pragmatic.  And Burger could appeal to the group of House members one Republican refers to as “the old man caucus,” playing off the relatively younger Patterson and Rep. Alex Riley.

Jordan to Challenge Morse?

Steve Jordan formed a committee to run for House 151, setting up a Republican primary.  That’s currently held by Rep. Herman Morse.

Jordan was Stoddard County Commissioner until last year when he was removed from office after charges of nepotism.

·       KFVS reported: The Court found the Jordan was in violation of the Missouri Constitutional ban on nepotism… Evidence was shown that Jordan had nominated and appointed his son-in-law to an elected public office on the Board of Directors for Water District #5.

Lobbyists Registrations

David Winton and Ryan Robichaux added Aviagen, Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Friends Of Tom Oldenburg - $8,000 from Tom Oldenburg.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Shamed Dogan, John Diehl, and Percy Green II.