MOScout Daily Update: Fireside-Gate - Poll on Economy - Hallway on Sports Betting - WWTW and more...

MOIndy on Fireside-Gate

The Missouri Independent published a humdinger of a story yesterday that had Jeff City buzzing.  It’s about Speaker Dean Plocher pushing for a contract to be approved – and resistance to it from the Chief Clerk of the House Dana Miller.  Read it here.

My best read of the situation is that Plocher is close with Bardgett and Associates who were lobbying for the Fireside software contract.  He bungled into classic bad government form – no public bids, unnecessary costs etc.  (You can read Miller’s memo on the inadvisability of the contract here).

There was a ham-handed attempt online to blame this story on Democrats.  That’s just dumb.  When I mentioned Fireside briefly last week, I noted that it was conservative criticism over the contract – wasteful spending, data security fears – driving the controversy.

What’s Next

·       The best course for Plocher is to hunker down, hope the story fades, and there’s not too much that can be used by his primary opponent, Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder.

·       I’ve heard the suggestion that Team Plocher would go on the offensive against Miller.  But any response will give the story legs.

·       I would also note that Chief Clerk is a non-partisan position.  Miller is highly respected in the building.  She doesn’t serve at the pleasure of the speaker.  Absent a resignation it would take a vote of the body to remove her.  The chance of that happening is extremely close to zero.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Economic Sentiment

Survey conducted September 20 through September 21, 2023. 800 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.  See the full results here.

Q1: The United Auto Workers has started a strike against automakers. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the striking workers?

Support: 49%

Oppose: 31%

Not sure: 20%

Q2: The Justice Department is taking Google to court alleging that they’ve illegally maintained a monopoly. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose breaking up Google’s monopoly over internet searches?

Support: 48%

Oppose: 15%

Not sure: 36%

Q3: Do you think the trade agreements that the United States has negotiated in the past have been good for the American economy?

Yes: 29%

No: 36%

Not sure: 35%

Q4: Do you think you pay too much, too little or about the right amount of taxes?

I pay too much in taxes: 57%

I pay too little in taxes: 3%

I pay about the right amount of taxes: 34%

Not sure: 6%

Q5: Generally speaking, are you worried about the nation’s budget deficit?

Very worried: 55%

Somewhat worried: 15%

A little worried: 19%

Not worried at all: 9%

Not sure: 3%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Odds on Sports Betting

I asked lobbyists, “How likely is it that sports betting is legal in Missouri by 2025?” 22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 18.2%

2. Somewhat likely… 27.3%

3. Somewhat unlikely… 36.4%

4. Very unlikely… 18.2%

Sample of Comments

·       I wouldn't bet on the legislature doing anything as long as Dennis Hoskins is Senatoring. Also feels unlikely somebody puts together the ground game to gather the signatures for it.

·       So long as they continue to mishandle the issue in the building and with the public, it will not get passed.

·       50/50 - a session with and without Hoskins, will there be an effort at the ballot… Still a lot of unknowns to go much higher.

·       Players change with elections

·       Same dynamics as last year so doubtful for 2024 but possible with some new blood in Senate in 2025.

·       Money talks. There’s no way this doesn’t get done eventually.

·       I think the popularity of the issue eventually pushes it over the edge.

·       If a ballot imitative was easy and inexpensive it would be finished by now. The legislature will legalize it in 2025 when Denny Hoskins terms out.

·       Pro teams’ IP passes. Casinos come around. VLTs lose and Torch wins.

·       The initiative petition won’t happen and the opportunity was presented this session to the conservatives and they chose to not support sports wagering so nothing will happen BY 2025.

·       The issues are going to stay tied together, there is too much cash involved for them not to. It’s always the thought that after “x” Senator leaves, things will get done, but thats not usually the case. What incentive is there to rock the boat on an issue that nobody is campaigning on and the vast majority won’t brag about passing.

Who Won the Week?

Bill Eigel – He managed to get a viral video doing exactly what the majority of Republican primary voters want to see.  For many people the first time they heard his name it is associated with "burning the swamp".

Pro-Lifers – With the pro-choice community split, the odds for an initiative petition (that can pass) making the ballot has decreased.

Gabe Gore – The early results – a doubling of criminal cases – show that Gore was the right person for the job.  There is no substitute for engaged, competent leadership.

Socialists – Anyone still like the free market?  We’re in a topsy-turvy world where Republicans think free trade is bad, and Josh Hawley wants the government to decide credit card rates.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $15,000 from Cheyenne International LLC.

Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).

MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Tim Gutschenritter.

Forward Jackson County - $10,000 from JE Dunn Construction Company.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Harry Otto (Sunday).