MOScout Daily Update: What The Federal Shutdown Means for Missouri Politics - Voss for Senate? - Haffner Announcement Coming and more...

1 Big Thing: Government Shut-Down

It appears that the federal government’s funding impasse will result in a “shut-down” on Saturday.  I mostly don’t comment on national politics, but one Missouri Republican insisted that I watch this trainwreck a bit closer because… it could be coming to Missouri next year!

His thinking:

·       The amount of ink and attention that a shut-down garners is immense.

·       It’s a near-perfect expression of “fighting” against government bloat and overspending.

·       We’ve got a gaggle of Republicans in contested primaries who will be looking for ways stand out, earn media, and fire up their base.  If they see this work at the federal level, they will be tempted to give it a try on the state level.

Plus…

·       The lengthy budget process of the legislature means passing the budget almost always comes bumping up within days or hours of the constitutional deadline.  It wouldn’t require extraordinary effort to filibuster and delay passage, pushing the budget into a special session.

And…

·       We’re back this year once again needed to reauthorize the FRA (Federal Reimbursement Allowance) tax. In 2021, Governor Mike Parson called a special session on the issue after it got hung up with anti-Planned Parenthood language.

Voss Looks Higher?

Rep. John Voss – a freshman state representative from Cape Girardeau – is apparently already eying higher office. This comes after a tight primary win last year; he took 40% in a three-way race.  (Voss primaried Rep. Wayne Wallingford in 2020, nearly knocking him off.  Voss grabbed 48% in that election).

·       The Missouri Ethics website says that he’s changed his campaign committee to say now that he’s seeking “Statewide Office.”

·       However, others believe he’s gearing up to make a run at the Senate 27 seat that Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder is vacating to run for lieutenant governor.  If so, he’ll be joining Rep. Chris Dinkins in that race.

One source says that Voss had expressed interest in hopping on the chairman track for the powerful Budget Committee (he’s one of a handful of freshmen on the committee).  But feeling that he’s unlikely to be tapped, he’s looking at alternatives.

·       His IE PAC, Capaha PAC, has filed Limited Activity reports recently.

We’ll see…

Haffner Set to Join Senate 31 Race

Rep. Mike Haffner is set to make an official announcement to join the Senate 31 race next week.  He’s amended his campaign committee, and tickets for his October 5 event are already “sold out.”

With Haffner’s entry Senate 31 is a three-way Republican primary, including incumbent Sen. Rick Brattin, and Rep. Dan Houx.

·       The early consensus is that Haffner creates a headache for Brattin.  He will draw votes from Cass County where he’s been a rep, and he shares a similar military background as Brattin.  Houx, meanwhile, will have Johnson County as his stronghold.

Inside the Economic Sentiment Poll

Last weekend’s MOScout/Remington Research poll focused on economic issues.  I was curious to see the extent that “economic populism” was spreading to the Republican Party.  That’s where Donald Trump and Senator Josh Hawley have been leading the party.  It was not as pronounced as I thought it would be.  While MOGOPers are anti-Big Tech, and anti-free trade, they didn’t register as pro-union workers.

Here are some of the partisan splits (and of course please never forget that the math of sampling means that margins of error are higher within subgroups, like party affiliation).

Q1: The United Auto Workers has started a strike against automakers. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the striking workers?

Republicans: Support workers… net – 20%

Democrats: Support workers… net +71%

Q2: The Justice Department is taking Google to court alleging that they’ve illegally maintained a monopoly. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose breaking up Google’s monopoly over internet searches?

Republicans: Support… net +42%

Democrats: Support… net +18%

Q3: Do you think the trade agreements that the United States has negotiated in the past have been good for the American economy?

Republicans: Yes… net -39%

Democrats: yes… net +38%

And Missouri Republicans are nearly unanimous that they are overtaxed, despite great concern about the federal budget deficit.  The conclusion being that they view the deficit as a spending problem (see “1 Big Thing” above).

Q4: Do you think you pay too much, too little or about the right amount of taxes?

Republicans: Too much… net +77%

Democrats: Too much… net +29%

Q5: Generally speaking, are you worried about the nation’s budget deficit?

Republicans: Very or somewhat worried… net +79%

Democrats: Very or somewhat worried… net -12%

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard McIntosh, Elizabeth Lauber, and Jerry Hobbs deleted National Parents Organization of Missouri.

$5K+ Contributions

HOMEFRONT PAC (pro-Webber) - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).

HOMEFRONT PAC - $10,000 from AW Smith Law.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from American Dream PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jeff Roe, Katie Reichard, Gordon Reel, Mark Schwartz, and Bryan Spencer.