MOScout Weekender: Veto Fundys Updated - Poll on IP Proposals - Hallway Shrugs - WWTW and more...
Veto Schedule Updated
I’ve updated the Veto Session Fundraisers schedule after received a few more invites. They are compiled here in a an easy-to-read, easy-to-print format. I believe this is comprehensive, but will update Monday if necessary. We’re at 43 fundraisers.
Post: Ashcroft Hires Donor
Never a good look to be handing taxpayer money to a donor… Post Dispatch’s Kurt Erickson reports on Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft using outside counsel for his ESG fight.
· Instead of using the Missouri attorney general’s office to fight a challenge to new investment rules being pushed by Ashcroft, the Republican hired the politically connected Kansas City law firm of Graves Garrett to represent his office.
· Among a trio of Graves Garrett lawyers on the case is Edward Greim, who contributed the maximum amount of $2,825 to Ashcroft’s gubernatorial campaign in June.
Remington/MOScout Poll: IP Proposals
Survey conducted September 6 through September 7, 2023. 806 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Q1: Should the Missouri Constitution be amended to authorize any county and cities of St. Louis and Kansas City to pass ordinances which could supersede the Second Amendment Preservation Act?
Yes: 18%
No: 53%
Not sure: 29%
Q2: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to allow places where individuals, corporations, organizations, and associations provide childcare outside of the child’s home to be exempt from property tax? This is intended to make childcare more available, which would support the well-being of children, families, the workforce, and society as a whole.
Yes: 51%
No: 28%
Not sure: 21%
Q3: Should the Missouri Constitution be amended to prohibit the state from interfering with the right to have an abortion in case of rape or sexual assault, incest, fatal fetal abnormality, or risk to the health of the female seeking the abortion?
Yes: 46%
No: 34%
Not sure: 20%
Q4: Should the Missouri Constitution be amended to prohibit the state from interfering with the right to have an abortion through the gestational age of twelve weeks?
Yes: 41%
No: 35%
Not sure: 24%
Q5: Should the Missouri Constitution be amended to prohibit the state from interfering with the right to choose contraceptives?
Yes: 52%
No: 27%
Not sure: 21%
Follow Up on Contraception Ban Fears
One pro-life Republican scoffs at yesterday’s talk that conservatives might try to prohibit contraceptive use, saying it’s a lefty talking point bogeyman. No legislator in Missouri has filed any legislation to outlaw contraception and there’s no indication any are planning to in the upcoming session.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Pro-Choice IP
Like the Magic 8-Ball was sometimes, the Hallway Index is inconclusive this week. I asked lobbyists, “Do you expect a pro-reproductive health initiative petition to pass in 2024?” 21 replies…
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 0%
2. Somewhat likely… 47.7%
3. Not sure… 19%
4. Somewhat unlikely… 19%
5. Very unlikely… 14.3%
Sample of Comments
· If the Dem-on-Dem dem violence can screw something up. It will.
· If Planned Parenthood insists on the perfect being the enemy of the good, then I doubt that language can pass, unfortunately.
· There does not seem to be a unified plan among the pro repro health groups. If there were AND they don’t seek the perfect - then….
· If they go for incremental progress then yes, absolutely. If they 'go big' then they swing and miss.
· I don’t think it makes it onto the ballot without support from the major pro-choice groups.
· If they run with the most narrowly focused maybe. Anything that goes beyond health, life and rape and incest won’t pass
· Depends on what ones make the ballot. I don't think we are Kansas or Ohio - I think if it's a question about access to abortion at any time it will not pass. However, if it's one of the questions about access early in pregnancy or in cases of rape/incest, I think it has a chance.
· Missouri’s draconian law is dangerous to women’s health and ambiguous for physicians. Reasonable and rational folks get this and understand that there needs to be exceptions for the life of the mother and rape and incest.
· A lot of this has to do with groups reading the political reality. If the pro-choice community wanted to advance the cause of women’s health they would put something on the ballot that unites Missourians like a 12 or 15 week right to abortion along with a life/health/rape exception and nullify all the ridiculous barriers the Legislature has put in the way of women over the past 20 years. In one ballot initiative the groups could restore the right to abortion for the overwhelming female population in Missouri. Of course they will probably drown in infighting and ask Missourians to approve partial birth abortion…
Who Won the Week?
Crystal Quade – Gets an early endorsement from AFL-CIO that helps plants her firmly as organized labor’s pick to run for governor. It may help clear her primary field, dissuading other would-be Democrat candidates from running.
Doug Beck, Chris Dinkins, and Stephen Webber – I expect they’ll all have challenges at some point, but the longer they go without a formal candidate running against them, the stronger (more money, more events, more endorsements) their campaign get.
Mike Parson – With the assumption being that there will be no overrides on his line-item vetoes, Parson can look forward to a drama-free Veto Session.
George Hruza – The House candidate has big backers. And he showed political smarts by resetting his sights after his state senate loss.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Leo Marshall.
American Dream PAC - $12,500 from Atha Brothers LLC.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Forest Products PAC.
The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $25,000 from Richard Miller (Pittsburg, KS).
Freedom PAC - $109.266 from Axiom Strategies.
Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund - $109,266 from Axiom Strategies.
Free and Fair Election Fund - $15,549 from Axiom Strategies
MoCannTrade PAC - $25,000 from Mara Meyers (Glen Carbon, IL).
MoCannTrade PAC - $25,000 from Mark Hendren.
MoCannTrade PAC - $12,000 from Ravi Rengta (Ann Arbor, MI).
Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $50,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.
HNTB Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $10,000 from HNTB Holdings Ltd. PAC (Sausalito, CA).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jorgen Schlemeier, Zach Pollock, Mark Habbas, Garrett Webb, Jack Goodman, Dave Plemmons, Rod Jetton, Alan Green, and Delbert Scott.
Sunday: Ian Dunlap, Erika Leonard, Jill Kline, and Tom Madden.