MOScout Daily Update: 3-CD Hunger Games - Royals Big Asks Coming - Cupps Scolds Malek and more...
Luetkemeyer Exits
In a major Republican shake-up, Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer announced that he won’t seek re-election. See his announcement here. Luetkemeyer elected in 2008.
Here’s an early look at the field…
IN: No one is officially in yet. But former Sen. Bob Onder is thought to be the most likely to jump in. He ran in 2008, placing second in the field of five. Luetkemeyer won with 39%; Onder pulled 29%.
DEFINITELY LOOKING AT IT: Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Travis Fitzwater, former Sen. Kurt Schaefer, former Sen. Dave Schatz, Sen. Nick Schroer, and former Speaker Rob Vescovo. There are arguments for and against each of these candidates pulling the trigger. Not all these folks live in the district, but there is no residency requirement when running for Congress.
ALSO MENTIONED: Taylor Burks, Sen. Bill Eigel, and Derrick Good.
PASSING: Sen. Mike Bernskoetter, Caleb Jones, and Sen. Caleb Rowden.
The Case for MEC…
Sen. Coleman has one of the most compelling reasons to run for any politician: a free pass. She’s not up for election, so she can take a flyer and hold onto her senate seat. But as she’s working the phones to supporters and donors to gauge interest, here’s are some likely talking points…
· Compelling life story (mother of multiple adopted kids).
· Potentially the only woman in a big field as she’s the only woman being mentioned right now. MEC defeated three guys by double digits in a four-way state senate primary.
· One of the most prominent pro-life leaders, not only in Missouri, but across the country, as she’s regularly quoted in national publications
Rex + Luetky Watch…
Last quarter’s filing showed Luetkemeyer’s Blaine for Congress Committee had a cash on-hand balance of over $2 million. I’m told that he may put that cash to use to back his preferred candidate.
Another big player to watch is Rex Sinquefield. He’s residence is in the Third Congressional, and he has relationships with many of the folks thinking about running.
A candidate who can land those two deep pockets will be well on their way to filling out their campaign budget.
Geography…
Money matters. But so does geography. This is a Mid-MO centered district. Everything else being equal, a candidate from central Missouri will have an advantage. That favors Schaefer and Fitzwater out of this initial list – but obviously not if they both run.
Just as important as where someone is from, do they have sole claims to that base. In other words, Onder will be sunk if Schroer jumps in; MEC will be in trouble if Vescovo runs.
In this regard, game theory suggests that it’s advantageous to be the first candidate from any geographic area. That will dissuade an additional nearby rival by making their envisioned path harder.
1 Big Thing: Royals Stadium Talk Heats Up
Talk of a new stadium for the Kansas City Royals is heating up – and may emerge as one of the biggest issues this legislative session. On the one hand, legislators generally are very supportive of major league sports teams. However, the specific asks involved in the new stadium may stir some push-back.
To make that work, not only would the Royal be seeking millions in incentives and subsidies, but they’d also need the power of eminent domain to cobble together the various plots around that site.
Both the incentives and the eminent domain could be heavy lifts in the legislature. Especially in an election year when anti-crony capitalism and property rights are running at a fever pitch.
· And – with plans for a stadium tax on the local ballot in April, there’s an urgency on this issue.
Cupps Scolds Malek
At Wednesday’s House Appropriations Sub-Committee on General Administration, Chair Scott Cupps laid into State Treasurer Vivek Malek for promising his employees a raise before bringing the idea to Appropriations. See the long exchange here.
Cupps: I really want to try to get along really well in this process like that's been my goal, but I started getting a bunch of text messages apparently after it was announced it at the Christmas party that everybody's getting an 8% raise. Everybody's getting an 8% raise. And I fundamentally have a really big problem with that. And that's not a problem with any individual. That's a problem with the concept that it was announced in that manner, the concept that it was even mentioned to those folks you're going to be able to do anything without this first. Does that make sense?
Eigel Proposes Rule Change
Sen. Bill Eigel proposed a change to the Senate Rules, that “no substitute shall be adopted by the senate until such substitute has been distributed to each member of the senate at least two legislative days before the substitute is offered.”
This would prevent the typical furious revisions that occur in the final week of session. But is it necessary to create a rule to slow the Senate? Nothing prevents any senator from standing up and asking the handler to go line by line through any new substitute.
The Senate didn’t debate the rule change because Sens. Denny Hoskins and Mike Bernskoetter started debating who was more conservative, and Floor Leader Cindy O’Laughlin, perhaps sensing that nothing productive was to come from the argument, moved for adjournment.
· It feels like nothing is going to be easy in the Senate this session.
Briscoe Passes
John Briscoe passed away over the holiday. See his obituary here.
He served as prosecuting attorney of Ralls County from 1972-1981 and again from 1991-2006. He served a term as president of the 10th Judicial Circuit of the Missouri Bar and in 1979 served as president of the Missouri Prosecuting Attorneys Association. While a zealous advocate for his clients, he never let that diminish his affinity and respect for his fellow attorneys. He loved the law and believed deeply in its honor and nobility. He practiced law for over fifty years with integrity, honesty and a very strong work ethic. That work ethic saw him at his office in New London most mornings at 5:00 a.m., including the day he died…
Friends and Family are invited to John's Life Celebration at a visitation that will be from 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM, Sunday, January 7, 2024, at the funeral home.
Lobbyist Registrations
Samantha Hayes added Missouri National Education Association.
Robert Hunt added Molson Coors Beverage Company USA LLC.
Dustin Backes added Mighty Good Solutions.
Joe Bruns added Missouri Council of School Administrators, Missouri American Water, and Missouri Association of Insurance Agents.
Larry Case added Burton-Liese LLC, and Missouri Association of Insurance Agents.
Frank Harris added Mothers Against Drunk Driving.
Jay Reichard added Article IV Foundation, and deleted Arnold Ventures.
Craig Redmon added Burton-Liese LLC’s clients.
Deanna Hemphill deleted Foundation Consumer Healthcare, and Missouri State Medical Association.
$5K+ Contributions
Osage River Gaming and Convention - $425,000 from Bally's Corp. (Providence, RI).
Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee - $100,000 from Paul Singer (Palm Beach, FL).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from AT&T.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Breakthru Beverage Missouri LLC.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $7,500 from HCA Good Government Fund.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from AT&T.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Reps. Joe Adams and LaKeySha Bosley, Sara Lampe, and Emilee Lakin.