MOScout Weekender: MEC In - Luetky Eyes Luetky Seat - Wagner Talk - MOScout Poll and much more...
Lots of news happening….
MEC Announces for CD-3
Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman became the first to declare for the Third Congressional.
“I’m running for Congress because we need to secure the southern border and put a stop to the endless flow of illegal immigration; we need to protect and defend human life; we need to stand up for our daughters and the girls of our state by protecting women’s sports; and we need to get back to the economic prosperity we had under President Trump by reversing Bidenomics, which has inflated the price of everything for Missouri families.”
· I’ve added a CD-3 page to my 2024 Watch page. MEC is the first one “in.”
Luetkemeyer Might Hop Into CD-3
Add Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer to the list of folks considering for Blaine Luetkemeyer’s seat. Sen. Luetkemeyer’s senate district is obviously outside of the 3rd Congressional, but… supporters make two points:
· He grew up in St. Francois County (still not in the district, but close by at least).
· His last name is Luetkemeyer. He is a cousin (of some indeterminate distance) of the Congressman. The guess is that in a baseline poll, Tony Luetkemeyer would draw incumbent-like numbers while the others will need to spend money building name ID.
Meanwhile
· John Combest reports that Mark McCloskey is thinking of running!
· And – in a similar vein – a couple of politicos have mentioned to me the possibility that this opening could draw out (again) former governor Eric Greitens. “You heard it here first!” one predicts.
And
For those updating their scorecards… Rep. Adam Schwadron is a firm NO. He’s sticking with the secretary of state’s race. And a source close to Sen. Nick Schroer said he won’t run if former Sen. Bob Onder gets in.
Speculation Grows About Wagner
A few different folks have speculated to me that Congresswoman Ann Wagner would follow the footsteps of Blaine Luetkemeyer and call it quits. I hesitate to call this even a rumor, but it’s definitely going around. Fueling it…
· Ray Wagner recently exited the Attorney General’s office, leading some to believe the power couple is looking at a true retirement of traveling and visiting grandkids…
· There’s a chance that Republicans lose control of Congress and the prospect of returning to the minority is dampening enthusiasm for the Washington lifestyle.
This speculation has a couple candidates who live near the borders of both CD-2 and CD-3 keeping their powder dry for now before making a final decision about 2024.
CD-2, like CD-3, would be a free-for-all primary. And Dems would run through scenarios as well. A far-right Republican nominee with a pro-choice initiative petition on the ballot could make this an interesting general election.
Stay tuned. I expect there’s be some pressure on Wagner to make a declarative statement in the coming weeks.
Moody Retires
From the latest Moody Report: On December 31, 2023, James R. Moody deleted his lobbyist registration with the Missouri Ethics Commission. Essentially, this action also terminated most activity for James R. Moody & Associates, the lobbying firm. Essentially, I have retired from the lobbying business.
From his bio: James Moody is the former Commissioner of Administration for the State of Missouri, where he served as the state’s chief administrative official from 1989 through 1992. Moody is also a former Missouri state budget director. In both positions, Moody was appointed by Governor John Ashcroft. Moody has also served as Executive Deputy Director of the Missouri Department of Social Services, Director of the Missouri Division of Family Services, and Assistant Director of the Ellis Fischel State Cancer Center.
Remington/MOScout Poll: House Bills
Survey conducted December 14 through December 15, 2023. 701likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: HB 1410 would create closed primary elections in Missouri. If passed, it would only allow registered Republicans and Democrats to vote in their respective primaries. Do you support or oppose HB 1410?
Support: 42%
Oppose: 46%
Not sure: 12%
Q2: HB 1445 would make Election Day, the first Tuesday in November, a holiday. Do you support or oppose HB 1445?
Support: 59%
Oppose: 32%
Not sure: 9%
Q3: HB 1502 would require public schools to teach cursive writing so that students create legible cursive handwriting by the end of the fifth grade. Do you support or oppose HB 1502?
Support: 88%
Oppose: 8%
Not sure: 4%
Q4: HB 1688 would require public schools to offer a driver education course that students must complete before graduating. Do you support or oppose HB 1688?
Support: 62%
Oppose: 30%
Not sure: 8%
Q5: HB 1755 would change the law so cars would no longer be required to have a front licensed plate but would only be required to display a rear license plate. Do you support or oppose HB 1755?
Support: 38%
Oppose: 49%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Vulnerable Incumbents
I asked lobbyists, “Which incumbent is most vulnerable this year?” 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. Andrew Bailey… 12.5%
2. Rick Brattin… 12.5%
3. Cori Bush… 37.5%
4. Vivek Malek… 29.2%
5. Someone else… 8.3%
Sample of Comments
· I would have said Malek two months ago. But a big influx of campaign cash and a clean China hit later, he’s looking in much better shape. Bailey has a national money problem.
· [Someone else] Chris Lonsdale
· I think Vivek is super likeable but unfortunately he's also super unknown to most voters
· Bailey will win. But will be outspent and face a barrage of attacks.
· [Someone else] Phil Oehlerking
· I'm not sure what Cori does. She wants to please the loud crowd not the thoughtful one. She doesn't control her own narrative, and is just a character in someone else's play. None of which help solve problems in a region that desperately needs solutions not megaphones.
· Haffner strips from Brattin’s base; Houx glides to victory as the normal functioning adult in the race.
Who Won the Week? (The 3-CD Edition)
Holly Rehder – The very real possibility that Bob Onder will be lured out of the LG race and into the 3-CD eliminates her toughest opponent.
Mary Elizabeth Coleman – No other woman has talked about running for 3-CD. The gender advantage is generally not as pronounced on the Republican side of the ballot, but it could still boost her chances in this race.
Dean Plocher – The news explosion has the press moving on to the new 3-CD cycle and away from the old Fireside, double-dipping, Plocher Pantry cycle.
Tony Luetkemeyer – Tony, or as he’d now known as Tony “Blaine” Luetkemeyer, would start the race ahead in name ID…
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Treatment Now PAC - $15,000 from Assisted Recovery Centers.
Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee - $50,000 from Gilbert Scharf (Lantana, FL).
Charles Genisio For Judge Committee - $10,000 from Charles Genisio.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Bob Onder, Rob Vescovo, Mike Daus, and Geoff Gerling.
Sunday: Chris Moreland, and Gentry Trotter.