MOScout Weekender: Travers to Renew MO - Sauls Nicola ThisClose in Senate 11 - Hallway Index - Who Won The Week and more…
Travers to Renew MO
Tyler Travers, who worked for years as Greg Razer’s chief of staff in the Senate, will be heading over to Renew Missouri as their Policy Director.
· Renew Missouri , led by James Owen, is a 501(c)3 “dedicated to transforming Missouri into a leading state in renewable energy and energy efficiency. Through legislative advocacy, community empowerment and collaboration, we strive to make Missouri a clean energy powerhouse.”
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 11
Survey conducted October 15 through October 18, 2024. 329 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full report here.
Q1: Candidates in the General Election for Missouri State Senate District 11 are Republican Joe Nicola and Democrat Robert Sauls. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Joe Nicola: 46%
Robert Sauls: 45%
Undecided: 9%
Q2: Constitutional Amendment 2 would legalize sports betting in the state of Missouri. From what you know about Amendment 2, do you plan to vote in favor of it or against it?
In favor: 35%
Against: 54%
Not sure: 11%
Q3: Constitutional Amendment 3 would establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives. From what you know about Amendment 3, do you plan to vote in favor of it or against it?
In favor: 49%
Against: 39%
Not sure: 12%
Q4: Proposition A would increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2026. From what you know about Proposition A, do you plan to vote in favor of it or against it?
In favor: 54%
Against: 34%
Not sure: 12%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: State Senate Race Prediction
I asked lobbyists, “What is your guess on hot state senate races, Senate 11 (Rizzo termed), Senate 15 (Koenig termed), Senate 17 (Arthur termed)?” 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. GOP sweeps 3-0… 0%
2. GOP takes 2 of 3… 33.3%
3. Dems take 2 of 3… 62.5%
4. Dems sweep 3-0… 4%
Sample of Comments
· D’s pick up NKC seat and maybe 15.
· Nicola will win. Gregory is favored. Nolte has a shot.
· A Republican just isn’t winning the 17th, especially one with a late start and lackluster fundraising. Rs have a flawed candidate in 11, and Ds have a strong candidate in 15. All that plus A3 … Ds sweep 3-0
· The fact that all 3 Ds have raised more money is very interesting. All about turnout
· The turnout mix is such an unknown. My Sen race prediction is based on my voter turnout prediction.
· Republicans take the republican leaning seat and Dems take the dem leaning seat.
Who Won the Week?
MRL critics – The growing chorus of Republicans who love to hate the leading pro-life organization in the state got more fodder this week when Missouri Right to Life dissed Mike Kehoe, leaving him unendorsed for governor. It is a head-scratcher considering he’s vocally against Amendment 3 while his opponent, Crystal Quade is one of the leading champions for its passage.
Robert Sauls – The latest MOScout poll puts him in a neck-and-neck virtual tie with his Republican opponent as we head into the final two-week stretch.
Tyler Travers – Lands a spot with Renew Missouri after years staffing on the Senate side of the building.
Claire McCaskill – Maybe the former senator is enjoying watching Josh Hawley take hits for using a private jet – the same jab he used against her in 2018.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from Missouri Automobile Dealers Association.
American Dream PAC - $15,000 from Don Kelly Contractors Inc.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Lynn Thompson.
American Dream PAC - $10,00 from Gerald Cook Jr.
Liberty and Justice PAC (Pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Richard Arnoldy.
SAFE Missouri (pro-Phifer) - $20,000 from Safe Accessible Fair Elections (Washington, DC).
The Wonderdog PAC (Pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $7,500 from HCA Missouri Good Government Fund.
Yes on 5 (Osage casino) - $417,598 from Bally's Corp (Providence, RI).
Yes on 5 -$383,000 from Osage Landing Development Company.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $234,000 from Abortion Action Missouri.
Vote "NO" on 3 - $157,000 from D. John Sauer.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $100,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Great Northwest PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,000 from Sun Solar, LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $6,500 from Missourians for Bishop Davidson.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,500 from Show Me Liberty PAC.
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $25,000 from Holland Law Firm LLC.
UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $15,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club (Washington, DC).
Electrical Workers Voluntary Political Education & Legislative Funds - $22,509 from IBEW Local One.
Melesa Johnson for Jackson County Prosecutor - $10,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited PAC.
Solar PAC - $10,000 from Azimuth Renewables.
AFC Victory Fund - $33,000 from AFC Victory Fund (Alexandria, VA).
St. Charles Realtors PAC - $30,268 from Missouri REALTORS PAC, Inc.
St. Charles Realtors PAC - $5,858 from Missouri REALTORS PAC, Inc.
CWA-COPE Political Contributions Federal Committee - $23,250 from Communications Workers of America- COPE PCC (Washington, DC).
Merck & Co., Inc. Employees Missouri PAC Federal Committee - $12,925 from Merck & Co., Employees Missouri PAC Federal Committee (Washington, DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Patricia Pike and John Lamping.
Sunday: Kevin Gunn and Ben Harris.