MOScout Daily Update: GOP Sweeps Statewide Races - Abortion Ban Reversed - House and Senate Stay Even - and What It Means…
GOP Statewide Sweep
As expected, Republicans swept the statewide offices. And they did so easily, winning with double-digit margins...
· Donald Trump won Missouri by 18%
· Josh Hawley beat Lucas Kunce by 13%
· Gov – Mike Kehoe 20%
· LG – David Wasinger 19%
· SOS – Denny Hoskins 18%
· Treasurer – Vivek Malek 19%
· AG – Andrew Bailey 22%
What It Means
It must be a disheartening night for Dems with statewide dreams. This slate of Democratic candidates was again unable to light the way and offer a possible path for future Democrats to be competitive in statewide contests.
Kunce’s campaign was run as methodically as possible. He outraised Hawley with an impressive online presence, embraced economic populism, and jabbed the incumbent on various vulnerabilities. In the end, he was the leading Democratic candidates last night, but he only netted 41% of the vote.
Trump On Doorstep to Presidency
Meanwhile in national news, major outlets this morning project Trump clinching the Electoral College.
What It Means
· It will be the first time in four years that Republican statewides won’t have Washington to distract them from their jobs. For example, our attorney general can crack down on misdeeds here in Missouri instead of filing suit against the federal administration.
· Between a new administration in Washington, and the new statewide elected office-holders, there’ll be plenty of jobs for aspiring Republican public servants.
A3 Passes
One of the few bright spots for Democrats was the passage of Amendment 3 (51.8%) reversing the total abortion ban and placing an explicit right in the Missouri constitution “reproductive freedom.”
The expectation, of course, is that Republicans will soon begin plotting to weaken, undermine or reverse this victory. We’ll see. It was mentioned in Mike Kehoe’s victory speech (see below) as one of his top priorities.
The Other Dem Win: Prop A
Proposition A passed easily (57.6%). This phases-in another series of step-ups in the minimum wage until it reaches $15/hour in 2026, as well as adding a mandate for paid sick time.
Dems will point to this and the abortion reversal as evidence that they’re suffering from an image problem, not a policy problem.
While that assessment has some truth, it’s not the whole truth. And Dem soul-searching in the aftermath of this election should include an honest assessment of policies which are not popular as well as considering “brand” challenges.
Other IPs
· Amendment 2 (sports betting) squeaked by (50.2%) after tilting back and forth all night. This ends the frustrating tangles in the legislature over the issue and Missouri in line with most of its border states. DraftKings, Fan Duel, Sports teams invested somewhere in the neighborhood of $42.5 million to make this happen. It’d have been a painful loss if it hadn’t passed.
· Amendment 5 (adding a gambling casino) failed (47.6%). Proponents spent a little more than $10M on this effort.
· Amendment 6 (fee for sheriffs) was handed a solid rejection from voters (39.4%).
· And Amendment 7 (outlawing ranked choice voting) passed (68.4%), presumably helped by the ballot candy of only allowing citizens to vote.
Legislative Races End in Draw
Amazingly, after the millions raised and spent on TV ads, radio ads, door-knockers, mailers, text messages and web ad, we finished just where we began.
Republicans retained their supermajorities in both the Senate and House, swapping a pair of seats in each chamber with Democrats, but keeping their numbers exactly the same.
In the Senate, Democrat Stephen Webber’s pick-up of Senate 19 (Rowden retiring) was offset by Republican Joe Nicola’s victory in Senate 11 (Rizzo retired). David Gregory fought off Joe Pereles to keep Senate 15 in GOP hands, and Maggie Nurrenbern prevailed over Jerry Nolte to do the same for Dems in Senate 17.
In the House, incredibly out of 163 seats only 2 switched parties. GOPers knocked off Rep. Jamie Johnson in House 12 with their “rockstar” candidate Mike Jones. And Dems upset Rep. Chris Lonsdale in House 39 with long-time educator Marty Jacobs.
· Not to beat a dead horse, but this outcome is a disappointment for Dems. They were excited that redistricting had produced a map with a dozen possible pick-ups. To come away without a single addition to their caucus is vexing.
But…
Don’t be fooled. While the partisan composition of the chambers isn’t changing, their make-up is being overhauled by term limits.
There will be 10 new senators (29% of the body), and 54 new state representatives (33% of that body). (FWIW, I’m not including John Simmons in my count as he served previously).
What It Means
On issues in which the partisan lines can sometimes get fuzzy (school choice, labor issues, tort reform…), lobbyists will be critical as ever building new relationships, educating new members, and keeping sharp vote counts this session.
Excerpt from Kehoe Victory Speech
Mike Kehoe laid out some of his top priorities in his victory speech. They were crime, economy, education, and abortion.
As soon as my hand comes off the Bible, the Kehoe administration will be relentless in our efforts to make Missouri safer. We will ensure that Missouri is a state where it is easier to be a cop than a criminal, and we will not rest until the criminals who make our streets and our neighborhoods dangerous are held accountable.
And to the brave police officers: we will always have your backs.
We’ll focus on reducing taxes and cutting regulations so families can keep more of their own money and so job creations want to come here, expand here, and hire more hard-working Missourians.
We’re going to strengthen public education and expand school choice so that every single student has the opportunity to get a world-class education. And we’ll prepare our kids for the workforce by making sure they have the options they need to achieve their American Dreams—whether that’s a four-year college or career technical education.
And for the future Missourians who do not have a voice, I’ll be on the front lines doing everything to ensure Missouri respects and protects innocent life.
eMailbag / More Bits
Stephen Webber’s Homefront PAC was one of the most consistent fundraisers this cycle. However, it largely eschewed helping Dem Senate candidates because Webber felt betrayed by Senate Dems capitulating on charter school expansion last session. “Homefront PAC successfully defended the Homefront in Boone County— Dems didn’t lose a single countywide race. Webber’s 56.8% was the strongest performance of any Dem in the county, and the PAC’s $50k IE in a county commission race helped beat Cheri Toalson Reisch by 1700 votes.”
Get Out Your 2026 Dance Card: One MOScouter says, “Melanie Stinnett won by more than 1,500 votes. She raised over $200K. Next in line for Lincoln’s state senate seat.” Crystal Quade could be the Dem opponent there. And this isn’t the only person thinking 2026. I expect we’ll get some announcements as early as this week or next.
How David Gregory Won: “Joe Pereles ran a mostly negative campaign attempting to make abortion the central issue in an election that was clearly about the economy, and also failed with late personal hits, which MoScout described as “going for the jugular.” These attacks backfired and were not the West County way. Endorsements from police and fire fighters had a significant impact on the outcome. State Senators Cindy O’Laughlin, Tony Luetkemeyer, Jason Bean, together with the State Senate Committee were committed to maintaining this seat and made significant investments in Gregory. Campaign and PAC consultants included Axiom’s Nick Maddux, and Rich Chrismer and Gregg Keller.”
Three cheers for MRP… “MRP walked over 115k targeted doors, in targeted house and senate races around the state. Plus, was a key resource for No on Amendment 3, distributing tens of thousands of signs and literature around the state. No one can say the Party didn’t pull its weight with its limited resources. Strategy matters. Dollar for dollar one of the most efficient organizations around.”
HRCC Credit: “Even with abortion on the ballot, the House Republicans had a stellar election night thanks to Hannah Beers Sutton and Dallas Ernst who put together a great team and found great candidates and JP who traveled the state and country fundraising to support his Republican Colleagues.”
Pick’em Winners
I goofed by not adding a tie-breaker question. Still let us raise up the two folks who correctly predicted the eight races I’d chosen…
Heath Clarkston and Casey Wasser. You are true gurus!
Lobbyist Registrations
Andrew Arnold added KNOWiNK, and Missouri Land Title Association (MLTA); and deleted Iowa 80 Group, Inc.
Andy Arnold deleted Truckstops of Missouri, LLC.
Kyra Betts added Generate Health STL.
Jay Reichard added Raptor Technologies; and deleted Paypool and Build America Mutual c/o MultiState Associates LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $40,000 from GoPAC Election Fund (Arlington, VA).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Ameren Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from GOPAC Election Fund.
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $25,000 from Stranch, Jennings & Garvey, PLLC (Nashville, TN).
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $12,500 from Thompson Coburn LLP.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to David Humphreys, Joe Runions, Amy Berendzen, Mark Maxwell, and Keith Frederick.