MOScout Daily Update: Rainy Election Day Across Much of Missouri - MOScouters Pick Winners - October Revenues Drift Lower and more…
State of Play
Polls open at 6AM (close at 7PM).
It looks like a rainy Election Day across a swath of the state.
· Conventional wisdom is that rain and thunderstorms favor the most fervent, and might temper high turnout. That could be bad news for pro-A3.
· But, with early voting, a lot of voters have already cast their ballots. For example, according to the unofficial dashboard from St. Louis County Board of Elections, Senate 15 already has 43% turnout – before the doors open on Election Day.
October Revenue
State revenue in October was flat with October 2023. It appears that tax receipts were down less a tad less than 1%.
That continues a trend of tepid state revenues. So far this fiscal year revenues are running -3.3% compared to this time last year.
What It Means
A tighter budget this year. Between inflation ticking up at 2-3%, revenues drifting lower, and less cash in the state’s reserves, it’s going to be hard to pitch new decision items.
Pick’em Contest Predictions?
39 brave souls entered the Pick’em Contest.
The wisdom of the crowd is inconclusive on some matters. For example, 20 say that Amendment 2 will pass and 19 think it won’t. (Amendment 3 fares better with 32 picking passage and only 7 seeing failure).
And then there’s near unanimous consensus that Rep. Brad Christ wins re-election in House 96 (38-1).
Other results
· Senate 11: Sauls (21) to Nicola (18)
· Senate 15: Gregory (20) to Pereles (19)
· Senate 17: Nurrenbern (33) to Nolte (6)
· House 17: Mata (23) to Allen (16)
· House 136: Hein (28) to Robinette (11)
House Battlegrounds
As Dems try to break the Republican supermajority, they eed a net pick-up of 3 seats. Here are the “battleground districts,” I’ve been watching and how they performed last presidential race…
House 12 – Dem Jamie Johnson re-elect – Biden +5
House 14 – Ashley Aune re-elect – Biden +7
House 15 – Dem Nurrenbern open – Biden +9
House 16 – GOP Chris Brown re-elect – Trump <1
House 17 – GOP Bill Allen re-elect – Biden +5
House 21 – Dem Sauls open – Biden <1
House 29 – Aaron Crossley re-elect – Trump <1
House 30 – GOP Jon Patterson re-elect – Trump +3
House 31 – GOP Stacy open – Trump +7
House 34 – Dem Kemp Strickler re-elect - Biden +2
House 38 – GOP Chris Lonsdale re-elect - Trump +6
House 47 – Dem Adrian Plank re-elect - Biden +3
House 89 – GOP Plocher open – Trump +3
House 92 – Dem Michael Burton – Biden +5
House 94 – GOP Jim Murphy - Trump +6
House 96 – GOP Brad Christ re-elect Biden +2
House 98 – Dem Lavender open – Biden +6
House 100 – GOP Philip Oehlerking - Biden +1
House 101 – GOP Ben Keathley re-elect – Biden + 1
House 104 – GOP Christofanelli open – Trump +8
House 105 – GOP Schwadron open – Biden +2
House 106 – GOP Travis Wilson re-elect – Trump +3
House 132 – Dem Quade open – Biden +7
House 133 – GOP Melanie Stinnett re-elect – Trump <1
House 135 – Dem Betsy Fogle re-elect – Biden +6
House 136 – Dem Stephanie Hein re-elect – Trump <1
And
On the national scene, Axios says these are the key counties to watch…
HRCC 24Hr Expenditures
Compared to the hundreds of thousands of dollars that have been spent, this is peanuts at the end. Final text messages to spur voters to action…
House 12 (Pick-up attempt – Jamie Johnson) - $417
House 14 (Pick-up attempt – Ashley Aune) - $784
House 17 (Defense – Bill Allen) - $519
House 34 (Pick-up attempt – Kemp Strickler) - $400
House 101 (Defense – Ben Keathley) - $530
House 133 (Defense – Melanie Stinnett) - $151
House 136 (Pick-up attempt – Stephanie Hein) - $382
Lobbyist Registrations
Andy Arnold added Missouri Land Title Association (MLTA); and deleted Iowa 80 Group, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Stacy Hastie.
American Dream PAC - $22,500 from J Randall Waterfield (Miami Beach, FL).
Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $30,000 from Majority Forward.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $14,000 from Committee to Elect Cameron Bunting Parker.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from RSLC - Missouri PAC (Alexandria, VA).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MOCS Action.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $6,000 from McGirl for State Rep.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,200 from Rodger Reedy.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Aaron Jeffries, Brad Ketcher, Becky Willard, and Angie Postal.