MOScout Weekender: How MO GOPers See Freedom Caucus - Hallway Sees IP Reform DOA At Ballot Box - Who Won the Week and more…
Onder to 3-CD
Former Sen. Bob Onder announced yesterday that he was pivoting away from lieutenant governor to the now-open Third Congressional seat.
“Washington DC has never been more broken than it is right now. Illegal immigrants are streaming across our border without consequence, fentanyl from Mexican cartels is poisoning our citizens, and Joe Biden is aiding and abetting the invasion. I am running to make Washington listen.” said Dr. Bob Onder.
The move had been expected for some time. He joins Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman as the only two declared candidates for the congressional prize.
Filing opens February 27. I’d expect in the coming weeks we hear more names making their final decision on the race.
For a full list of folks in the mix, take a look at the MOScout 2024 Watch page.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Freedom Caucus
Survey conducted January 31 through February 1, 2024. 741 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. Find the full poll here.
Q: How much have you seen, read or heard about the new Freedom Caucus in the Missouri legislature?
A lot: 14%
Just some: 44%
Nothing: 42%
Q: Based on what you know about the Missouri Freedom Caucus; how well does the Freedom Caucus represent your views?
They represent my views 100%: 10%
They somewhat represent my views: 24%
They don’t represent my views: 22%
Not sure: 44%
Q: Generally speaking, how well does the Republican Party align with your personal ideology? Is the party just right, more conservative, or more liberal?
The Republican Party is just right: 48%
The Republican Party is more conservative than me: 22%
The Republican Party is more liberal than me: 19%
Not sure: 11%
Q: Generally speaking, do you think it’s okay for an elected official to make a compromise in order to get something done?
Yes, it’s okay to compromise: 52%
No, they should not compromise: 25%
Not sure: 23%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Concurrent Majority Is A Loser
I asked lobbyists, “Do you think Missouri voters will pass the ‘House concurrent majority’ change to the IP process? 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. Yes… 3.7%
2. No… 81.5%
3. Not sure… 14.8%
Sample of Comments
· Depends on how ballot language is presented and if there is an organized and funded campaign against it.
· 98% of Missouri has no idea what house district they live in. The other 2% are elected officials and lobbyist. That will only confuse voters and lead to a no. 60-40 loss.
· There will be no money to support the IP, and millions against it. Also not as popular as the Freedom Caucus might have you believe.
· No one gives a shit about IP reform, or knows what it actually does. Republicans have spent years pursuing this and saying it is a priority. All this work for it fail will be quite the dynamic.
· Super donors are pretty sour on this and it’s hard to imagine anything more undemocratic than taking the voice of the people away, because the Legislature doesn’t like their opinion.
· Depends on the ballot candy. But I’d lean ‘no’. People don’t like it when The Swamp tries further empower The Swamp. Which is why it’s funny that this is Eigel’s big priority.
· The IP reform will become an abortion issue that drives out voters that won't help the GOP. So, the entire effort is suicidal.
· If there is money spent to inform voters (which seems likely) about the downsides to IP reform, voters will not like the impact it has on the belief that one person one vote is diminished in some way.
· Opposition's well financed media campaign will overcome the ballot candy.
· We are just a stupid midwest island at this point. Just a dumb proposal to hang a hat on and say "we did something". Restrict the money, increase the signatures, change the language requirements. Constitutions protect freedoms...statutes restrict them and regulate them. Tackle it from that angle.
Who Won the Week?
Wesley Bell – He out-raised his opponent, has more cash on-hand, and she’s under investigation. That’s a pretty strong week for someone challenging an incumbent.
Bill Eigel – Lands the Post-Dispatch headline he’s been wanting: “Eigel Isn’t Making Friends In The Legislature.”
Mary Elizabeth – She’ll be the Senate handler for the high-profile IP Reform bill. That gives her something big and current to talk about as she stumps around the 3-CD district.
Brad Politt – Bills touching public schools are never easy to advance in the legislature. But his bill, open enrollment no less, is the first bill out of the House. And on to the Senate…
$5K+ Contributions
Osage River Gaming and Convention - $461,280 from Bally's Corporation (Providence, RI).
Osage River Gaming and Convention - $461,280 from RIS, Inc.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Midwest Scrap Management.
Ameren Missouri Political Action Committee - $8,009 from Ameren FEDPAC (Washington DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Phil Amato, Justin Alferman, Jason Crowell, Warren Love, Kent Hampton, and Dave Hinson.
Sunday: Danny Pfeifer and Heather Grote.