MOScout Weekender: Meet Matthew Porter - New Statewide Poll - Big Rex Chex - Hallway on SOS Race - WWTW and more…

Porter Brings New Angle to LG Race

Matthew Porter entered the Republican primary for lieutenant governor on the final day of filing.  He has yet to roll out his campaign.  But here’s a quick look at who he is and how he could impact the race.

·       Porter is a technology executive; he’s in the Saint Louis University John Cook School of Business Entrepreneurial Hall of Fame.

·       He lives in St. Charles.

·       Ten years ago, in 2014 he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.

·       Follow him on Twitter here.

·       He’s working with Victory Enterprises.

·       My guess is that he’ll raise substantial money by tapping into the St. Louis tech and business community.

·       And it won’t surprise me to see a message that contrasts with the herd of Republicans running for statewide office.  Less Biden and border.  More quality-of-life issues.

Rex Gives to Gubby, AG Picks

With the end of the quarter upon us, mega-donor Rex Sinquefield sent $100,000 to each Mike Kehoe and Andrew Bailey, his picks for the offices of governor and attorney general.

·       While helpful for sure, in these races that amount won’t be make or break the campaigns; each is raising millions for their effort.

Remington/MOScout Poll:

Survey conducted March 27 through March 29, 2024. 527 likely 2024 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  Find the full results here.

Q1: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor are Holly Rehder, Dave Wasinger, Lincoln Hough, Paul Berry III, Tim Baker, and Matthew Porter. If the primary were held today, for whom would you vote?

Holly Rehder: 13%

Dave Wasinger: 4%

Lincoln Hough: 8%

Paul Berry III: 3%

Tim Baker: 3%

Matthew Porter: 2%

Undecided: 67%

Q2: Candidates in the Republican Primary for State Treasurer are Valentina Gomez, Shane Schoeller, Denny Hoskins, Adam Schwadron, Jamie Corley, Dean Ploucher, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, and Mike Carter. If the primary were held today, for whom would you vote?

Valentina Gomez: 5%

Shane Schoeller: 7%

Denny Hoskins: 10%

Adam Schwadron: 3%

Jamie Corley: 3%

Dean Ploucher: 2%

Mary Elizabeth Coleman: 11%

Mike Carter: 6%

Undecided: 53%

Q3: Would the endorsement of Missouri Right to Life make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, less likely or make no difference in support of that candidate?

Much more likely: 41%

Somewhat more likely: 14%

Less likely: 14%

No difference: 32%

Q4: Donald Trump supports a ban on abortions, but only after the first trimester. What is your personal opinion on an abortion ban?

Abortion should be completely banned: 44%

Abortion should be banned after first trimester: 27%

Abortion should be banned after second trimester: 4%

Abortion should not be banned at all: 14%

Not sure: 10%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: SOS Race

I asked lobbyists, “Who’s the favorite to be the next Secretary of State?”  21 replies.

RESULTS

1. Valenita Gomez… 4.7%

2. Shane Schoeller… 4.7%

3. Denny Hoskins… 9.5%

4. Adam Schwardon… 4.7%

5. Jamie Corley… 19.1%

6. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 28.6%

7. Dean Plocher… 28.6%

Sample of Comments

·       [MEC] She will have enough money to compete, and Dean has too much baggage.

·       Senator Coleman has the pro-life credentials and has a proven track record to win tough races. She is the leader.

·       [MEC] She always seems to outperform expectations. Dean will have more money but MEC will outhustle him.

·       Can I throw a dart at the dart board? It will be as accurate as my answer.

·       If the pro-life community sticks with Denny, it’s going to be hard to beat that built in grassroots activity. However if that support splits, it becomes purely about money and Dean will have the most.

·       I think the one thing Ashcroft might do right for his campaign is to get out the vote for his base in SWMO and that helps Shane. Everyone running ads the last week of July is just going to be noise.

·       There's not enough money in these races to attack opponents... Corley could have the funds to raise her faves enough to win in a large field.

·       [Corley] Only if she can get the mod republican/wash u money.

Who Won the Week?

MO Dems – Riding the Dobbs outrage energy, Dems put more candidates on the state ballot since the Obama Era. “83% (135 of 163) of State House seats filled with candidates, an increase from 97 candidates in 2022.”

Hannah Beers Sutton – Every battleground seat is filled and she had most of them recruited.  She’d been on a war path to find the right people for each district even before taking the HRCC job.

Steven Roberts – The progressives attack him like an angry swarm of bees on Twitter, but not one of them showed up to give him a primary challenge. 

Jason Bean – No primary challenge means he can focus on the floor leader race.

Reps. Marlon Anderson, LaDonna Appelbaum, Hardy Billington, Mitch Boggs, LaKeySha Bosley, Bob Bromley, Donnie Brown, Mazzie Christensen, Doug Clemens, Kimberly-Ann Collins, Dirk Deaton, Jo Doll, Sherri Gallick, Willard Haley, Yolonda Fountain Henderson, Jeff Knight, Mike McGirl, Bridget Walsh Moore, Louis Riggs, Alex Riley, Brenda Shields, David Tyson Smith, Kathy Steinhoff, Dean VanSchoiack, Rudy Veit, and Eric Woods; and newcomers Melissa Douglas Bill Irwin, Mark Meirath, and Ray Reed – The free pass folks.  These are the lucky ones without a primary or a major party challenger.

Find a downloadable version of WWTW here.

MOScout Jeff City Hunger Games Elite Eight

Eight Jeff City denizens left in the MOScout Jeff City Hunger Games March Madness bracket.

Vote here.

·       Rep. Keri Ingle vs Rep. Jay Mosley

·       Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin vs Sen. John Rizzo

·       Kyna Iman vs Sam Licklider

·       Pat Thomas vs Jason Hancock

$5K+ Contributions

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $100,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.

Liberty and Justice PAC - $100,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight, P.C (Leawood, KS).

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Six County PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Lynn Thompson.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Thomas Prater.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from JB PAC

American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Kent Hyde.

Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $25,000 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663.

Independence Leadership PAC - $25,000 from Construction & General Laborers' Local 264.

Independence Leadership PAC - $25,000 from Missouri & Kansas Laborers' PAC.

Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenbern) - $25,000 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663 PAC.

Northland Forward - $25,000 from Construction & General Laborers' Local 264.

Northland Forward - $25,000 from Missouri & Kansas Laborers' PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Alex Riley for State Representative.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Patterson for Missouri.

North County Alive PAC - $10,000 from LIUNA Local 110 PAC.

Protect Majority Rule - $25,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,200 from McGirl for State Rep.

Missourians for a Fair Economy - $15,000 from House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to David Pearce, Wes Shoemyer, Jeff Roorda, and Anne Schweitzer.

Sunday: Allen Icet and Mark Ellebracht.