MOScout Weekender: Statewide Poll - Hallway on Ethics Outcome - Who Won the Week and more…

Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide

Survey conducted March 6 through March 8, 2024. 713 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: Possible candidates in the general election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 53%

Lucas Kunce: 39%

Undecided: 8%

Q2: Possible candidates in the general election for Governor are the Republican Jay Ashcroft and Democrat Crystal Quade. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Jay Ashcroft: 53%

Crystal Quade: 36%

Undecided: 11%

Q3: Possible candidates in the general election for Attorney General are the Republican Andrew Bailey and the Democrat Elad Gross. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Andrew Bailey: 50%

Elad Gross: 35%

Undecided: 15%

Q4: Missouri law states that life begins at conception.  Some people think this endows frozen embryos used in in vitro fertilization with the same legal status as unborn children.  Do think that frozen embryos should be so protected?

Yes, they should have the same legal protections: 33%

No, they should not have the same legal protections: 45%

Not sure: 22%

Q5: Do you think the Missouri Constitution should be amended so that future constitutional amendments would need a statewide majority vote and a majority vote in a majority of congressional districts to take effect?

Yes, it should be so amended: 42%

No, it shouldn’t be so amended: 26%

Not sure: 32%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Plocher Ethics Outcome

I asked lobbyists, “What is the most likely outcome of the House Ethics Committee hearings?”

22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Complaint not well-founded… 13.6%

2. Letter of reproval… 31.8%

3. Reprimand… 45.5%

4. Censure… 4.5%

5. Expulsion… 4.5%

Sample of Comments

·       I have a hard time seeing this becoming anything major. Unless there is something we don’t know.

·       This is a big nothing-burger.

·       Big secrets don’t keep. If something serious were going to happen, we would already know it.

·       A lot of work that will fizzle out. This is being done to hold Plocher accountable, which he brought on himself

·       Nothing to see here folks, move on. At this point, this is just kabuki theater to try to get the speaker do bend to various groups will.

·       Longer it goes, the less it matters.

·       Slap on the wrist.

·       Given Hannah’s propensity of being a rule follower, likely to take some sort of action but no kill shot.

Who Won the Week?

Hannah Kelly – Keeps steady hand at the Ethics Committee, turning back Dean Plocher’s attorney request to bend the rules and insert himself in the closed hearing.

The Senate – The upper chamber had a normal week, advancing some bills, and even in some cases (though clearly not all cases) senators avoided the pettiness of personal grudges to debate a bill on its merits.

 Lincoln Hough – He’s got momentum, raising $325,000 since filing for LG. In one week, he has doubled the PAC’s cash on-hand.

Chuck Hatfield – Jeff City’s go-to attorney seems to be everywhere at once.  In cross examining at the Delta Extraction hearing; he’s filing Torch’s lawsuit against Springfield; he’s commenting on Parson’s commutation.

Find a downloadable version here.

Durham Passes

Jennifer Durham passed away on Tuesday.  See the obituary here.

She was a partner and lobbyist for over 50 years at John Britton Associates, later the Britton Group. She enjoyed traveling, swimming, animal welfare, and attending theatre shows. Most of all she enjoyed spending time with her family, especially her grandkids.

Friends will be received on Friday, March 15, 2024 from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at Houser-Millard Funeral Director’s.

In lieu of flowers, the family asks that expressions of sympathy be made to the Jefferson City Animal Shelter.

New Candidate Filings

·       Gloria Young (Democrat) filed to run in House 16.  She’ll face Republican Rep. Chris Brown.

·       Jenna Roberson (Democrat) filed in House 63.  She’ll face Republican Rep. Tricia Byrnes.

·       Marvin Manring (Democrat) filed to run in House 127.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Ann Kelley.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $7,125 from ASAPAC Mo Federal Committee.

Together Missouri PAC (pro-Hamra) - $30,000 from George Britton (Houston, TX).

Together Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Michael Heim.

The Good Government Committee - $7,000 from TR Hughes Home.

The Good Government Committee - $7,000 from JEMA.

Citizens for Frank Pendleton - $5,100 from Frank Pendleton.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Luke Reed, Dave Monaghan, and Nathan Beard.

Sunday: Mayor Tishaura Jones, Jamey Murphy, Andrew Arnold, Eddy Justice, Matt Jessee, and Luke Scavuzzo.