MOScout Daily Update: Senate Standstill - Pro-Life Messaging on IP - Dinkins Memo - Bayer Bill - Gregory Suit and much more…
Senate Standstill
The Senate gaveled in and out yesterday without taking up a single bill. According to one Senate-side source they have “no plans of passing anything of consequence until the House passes the Defund Planned Parenthood bill.”
There’s a feeling on the Senate side that the House is holding that bill to use as leverage. But the domino effect here is significant: The Senate isn’t passing the FRA tax renewal without the Defund PP bill. Senate Appropriations isn’t working on the budget without the FRA because that’s a huge chunk of money they’d have to account for. It’s like seeing brake-lights ahead on the highway and wondering if you’re about it hit a total standstill.
If the House passed the Defund PP bill and the IP reform bill without adding back in the ballot candy, the risks of a Senate collapse/bottleneck would be dramatically reduced. The Freedom Caucus would still huff and puff on the budget. But otherwise, there aren’t any big barriers to Republicans passing a bunch of bills in the last four weeks. That does not appear to be the scenario unfolding right now.
1 Big Thing: Pro-Lifers Prep IP Messaging
At the Senate’s Emerging Issues Committee yesterday, Sen. Andrew Koenig presented SB 1459 to define “reproductive health care” so as not to include gender transition care.
As used in the laws and regulations of this state, unless clearly and specifically stated otherwise, the term "reproductive health care" shall not be construed to include gender transition surgeries or the use of cross-sex hormones or puberty-blocking drugs for the purpose of gender transition, as such terms are defined in section 191.1720,6 for minor children or adults.
Proponents of the bill said this would define the limits of the proposed pro-choice constitutional amendment which aims to give Missouri citizens unfettered control over their reproductive health care.
What It Means
I think this is the first foray of what will be sustained messaging from pro-life activists against the proposed pro-choice IP. I believe they will attempt to sidestep the abortion issue and instead tell people to vote against the ballot question because it would allow gender transition surgeries for minors.
Kehoe Cash
A rival campaign tells me that the Kehoe campaign is too top-heavy to use their cash advantage effectively… “The Kehoe campaign and PAC have now spent a combined $4.3 million since Kehoe first announced his intention to run for governor. Spending $800,000 on media is less than 20 percent of their total spend-to-date. At that spend rate (based on their current cash on hand) they would only have $1.2 million for advertising. It doesn’t matter how much you raise when you spend 80 percent of it on overhead.”
eMailbag: Carpetbagging or Tsunami?
In past races (e.g., Josh Hawley and Eric Greitens) you have consistently and fairly derided the inpouring of DC dark money to buy a Missouri election. But here you seem almost impressed with Will Scharf’s DC backing. I don’t get it… It strikes me as odd that you chose to laude the “speed” of Scharf’s fundraising prowess rather than point out what is actually going on. DC insiders are trying to buy a Missouri election off the shelf. We used to call that carpetbagging. I guess now we call it a “coming tsunami.”
eMailbag on Senate 7
Dave, your "mini-rebellion" in Senate 7 is about to become a full-scale civil war. Sounds like a fairly large number of people are gonna be endorsing Patty Lewis. Women and House Dems are PISSED.
Senate 27: Dinkins Polling Memo
Rep. Chris Dinkins’ campaign is circulating their polling memo from February to give lobbyists and key Republican donors an overview of the race. See the memo here.
· Wide Open Race: The race remains wide open in the current field, with Chris Dinkins emerging as a strong contender. Dinkins' has been campaigning for 8 months longer than Jamie Burger, allowing her to make up significant ground.
· Opponent Analysis: Despite Jamie Burger having represented 24% of those surveyed for over 22 years, Dinkins begins within the margin of error, indicating a competitive position and a lack of robust support for Burger in his home county.
· Geographic Advantage: Despite narratives being pushed, geography does not appear to be a significant factor for Republican primary voters in the district, giving Dinkins a level playing field despite her geographic disadvantage.
· Funding and Message: Dinkins' strong positive issue set and her opponents' vulnerabilities suggest that with competitive funding and effective messaging, she is favored to win the race.
Bayer Seeks Protection
AP has a story out about Bayer. “Nearly identical bills introduced in Iowa, Missouri and Idaho this year — with wording supplied by Bayer — would protect pesticide companies from claims they failed to warn that their product causes cancer.” Read it here.
· Missouri state Rep. Dane Diehl, a farmer who worked with Bayer to sponsor the legislation, cited concerns that costly lawsuits could force Bayer to pull Roundup from the U.S. market, leaving farmers to depend on alternative chemicals from China.
· Led by Bayer, a coalition of agricultural organizations called Modern Ag Alliance also is spending tens of thousands of dollars on radio and print advertisements claiming that trial lawyers and litigation threaten the availability of glyphosate.
· In lobbying lawmakers and in speaking with the AP, Bayer representatives disputed that the legislation would cut off other legal actions. Several legal experts said the legislation is unlikely to affect the 18,000 lawsuits already pending in Jefferson City, and wouldn’t prevent claims in states that don’t adopt similar legislation.
Bayer’s Jeff City lobbyists are: Amy Blunt, Shannon Cooper, Samantha Davis, Tony Dugger, Mike Gibbons, Nancy Giddens, Maddie McMillan Green, Dave Tierney, Jeffrey Williams, and Tricia Workman.
· Diehl’s bill is HB 2763.
Teamsters $$ to Hawley
Axios reports on Senator Josh Hawley nabbing a contribution from the Teamsters. Read it here.
It’s the latest indication that one of the country's biggest and most powerful labor unions — which has yet to endorse in the presidential election — is willing to back Republicans who share its priorities. In the past, the PAC has given overwhelmingly to Democrats, but Hawley has made a point to align himself with the labor movement, joining picket lines with the Teamsters and the United Auto Workers.
· Hawley has been one of the most prominent followers of Donald Trump’s leading the Republican Party away from conservatism and toward populism.
Meanwhile
Democrat Lucas Kunce continues to show huge fundraising numbers. They raised $2.25 million last quarter. One observer notes that “the COH race is similar to Blunt-Kander. For Q1 of the on-year, Kander ended with $2.8M COH, Kunce with $3.3M COH, and Blunt and Hawley each with $5.5M COH.”
Gregory Sues!
Former Rep. David Gregory, now running in a 3-way primary in Senate 15, “announced he is suing St. Louis County Executive Sam Page for failing to create and implement the Senior Property Tax Freeze program passed by the Missouri legislature and signed into law by Governor Parson.”
· “Everyone in our County government keeps pointing the finger at one another to blame someone other than themselves for their failure to enact the tax cut seniors in St. Louis County seniors were promised,” said David Gregory. “I’m tired of it...”
What It Means
It’s a clever way for Gregory to raise his name ID, and if it works, we might see candidates in lots of races taking to the courthouse to grab some free press.
RFT: Who Vets the Vetters?
The Riverfront Times has an article about the plan to vet Republican candidates and notes some folks doing the vetting look kind of icky. Read it here.
· Vernon County, in the southwestern part of the state bordering Kansas, is one of a handful of Missouri counties whose Republican party has instituted the process of candidate vetting… In Vernon County, that potentially means some pretty unsavory characters doing the scrutinizing.
· That's because within the ranks of the Vernon County Republican Committee are several members of the Church of Israel, an organization based in Schell City that has been labeled an extremist group by the Anti-Defamation League.
· According to the ADL, the church's founder and head pastor Dan Gayman, now in his 80s, has long been a thought leader of the Christian Identity movement and helped popularize what is called the two seedline theory, an influential belief in that extremist sphere that contends Jews are the cursed offspring born from a union between the Biblical Eve and the devil. A national leader of one of the largest Ku Klux Klan factions in the U.S. has sat on the church’s board of directors. And Gayman has espoused other explicitly racist views, including being quoted in the Kansas City Star asking rhetorically, "What has any colored person ever invented?"
· But church members are not persona non grata in every corner of Vernon County politics. "They are amazing patriots," says Cyndia Haggard… She confirmed to the RFT that there are members of the Church of Israel on the central committee, and that Gayman is among them.
Text From Non-Political Friend…
We now have torch machines in Kirkwood, yet I have to drive to Illinois to place a sports bet. WTF?
Lobbyists Registrations
Jeffrey Aboussie added Lakeport Village LLC.
Gamble & Schlemeier added HDI Solutions, LLC.
Trent Watson and Rich AuBuchon added Cornerstones of Care.
Maddie McMillian Green added Bayer U.S. LLC.
Donavan Jones added Donavan Jones.
Katharine McAden added Google LLC and Its Affiliates.
Maria Walden deleted Missouri Retired Teachers Foundation.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $19,310 from Class Act Management Inc.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Zimmerman Properties, LLC.
A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $12,508 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.
Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Korte & Luitjohan (Highland, IL).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $20,815 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri, Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Tom Rackers, Gregg Hartley, Ryan Silvey, Joe Pierle, Sarah Fenske, and Patrick Shami.