MOScout Daily Update: Final Week of Session.

Quick Monday update…

We enter the final week of the legislative session with 13 bills (not including appropriation bills) having been sent to the governor’s desk.

Final Week

All eyes will be on the Senate today as it convenes at 2PM and tackles SJR 74, “IP Reform.”

Democrats are expected to immediately filibuster the resolution.

These are possible scenarios ahead in the Senate…

·       Democratic filibuster holds: The Dems have 9 caucus members (with Razer’s seat now vacant).  That’s 4 partners with one floater.  With 3-hour shifts, everyone gets 12 hours off.  Easy peasy.  They could filibuster all week long.  It would be painful, but doable.  The odds that this is how the session ends are very slim.

·       Democratic filibuster ends: The Dems get tired or are induced to sit.  They come to an agreement with Republicans.  See Compromises #1 and #2.  This is the most likely (60%?) way the issue is resolved.

·       Compromise #1: Some version of the compromise that moved SJR 74 out of the Senate earlier in session.  They’d send the SJR back to House and let them know the Senate won’t pass it with the ballot candy.

·       Compromise #2: Dems let SJR 74 go through as it is, but get some assurances on other issues of importance for the remainer of this session or even next session.

·       PQ: 10 Republican senators present a motion to end debate and shut down the Democratic filibuster, and 18 votes GOPers vote for it.  Some Republicans are clearly gung-ho to PQ, others are coy about whether they’d go that far.  This is a possible ending (20%).  Once Republicans PQ SJR 74, the session would be effectively over on the Senate side as Dems would grind the chamber to halt.

·       Failed PQ: This is the true wildcard scenario (20%? likelihood).  If Republicans make the motion for a PQ, but can’t muster 18 votes.  I’ve never seen this before.  But with the split in the Republican Caucus, it’s possible the Freedom Caucus forces the issue without an ironclad whip count.  Anything could happen at this point.  It could jolt the outcome into a “Compromise #1,” but mostly likely the Senate implodes due to FC anger or general chaos within the GOP Caucus.

Meanwhile in the House…

I would guess we’ll see short days from the House initially as they wait and see whether the Senate will be an active partner this week.

The House is in possession of nearly a score of Senate bills.  If it looks like the Senate will be knotted up all week, they will decide which are worth passing and getting to the governor’s desk without any alterations.

Vetting Wins

Last week, there was a development in ongoing fight among Missouri Republicans to determine who exactly is allowed to claim they’re Republicans.  Kansas City Star reports

·       [E]ight candidates, all registered Republicans running for office in rural Vernon County, will not be allowed to stay on an August primary ballot as Republicans. The candidates had refused to take a “moral values” survey and undergo other vetting by the county’s Republican committee. A circuit court judge on Thursday evening ruled that the county clerk improperly placed their names on the ballot…

·       It began in March, when the Vernon County Republican Committee, led by chairwoman Cyndia Haggard, filed suit against the Vernon county clerk, who is also a Republican. Haggard is a self-described pro-Trump, MAGA Republican who continues to assert that the 2020 election was “100%” stolen, a contention proven false. She is a passionate proponent of candidate vetting to weed out RINOs — Republicans in name only.

·       Last year, she began a nonprofit, the Republican Association of Central Committees of MO, whose website describes RINOs as “a virus that infects & destroys our party’s values. Vetting is the vaccine that stops the virus cold.”

New PACs

Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC was formed.  Its to support Republican Bryce Beal, running in House 44 where Rep. Cheri Toalson Reisch is term limited. See the filing here.

$5K+ Contributions

Protect Majority Rule MO - $25,000 from National Education Assoc-PAC.

Protect Majority Rule - $6,677 from The Fairness Project P.O. Box 21337 Washington, DC).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive rights) - $25,000 from Hayden McNeese Reilly (New Orleans, LA).

Gromowsky for Prosecutor - $10,000 from Accurso Law Firm.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jared Holt deleted FanDuel Group, Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Jamie Johnson, Maura Browning, Beth Low, and Corey Jackson.