MOScout Weekender: Poll Shows Kunce Leading May, Toss-up Dem Gov Race, Most Dems Sticking with Biden - Hallway Index on Trump and more…

Remington/MOScout Poll: Democrats Statewide

Survey conducted July 10 through July 11, 2024. 600 likely 2024 Democratic Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout.  See the full report here.

Q1: The candidates in the Missouri Democratic Primary Election for United States Senator are Karla May, December Harmon, Lucas Kunce, and Mitas Biswas. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Karla May: 10%

December Harmon: 4%

Lucas Kunce: 39%

Mitas Biswas: 1%

Undecided: 46%

Q2: The candidates in the Missouri Democratic Primary Election for Governor are Eric Morrison, Crystal Quade, Sheryl Gladney, Hollis Laster, and Mike Harma. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Eric Morrison: 6%

Crystal Quade: 21%

Sheryl Gladney: 4%

Hollis Laster: 3%

Mike Harma: 23%

Undecided: 43%

Q3: Do you believe Joe Biden should be the Democratic Presidential nominee, OR, should he step aside for someone else?

Biden nominee: 60%

Biden should step aside: 26%

Not sure: 14%

Q4: Generally speaking, how concerned are you about illegal immigration?

Very concerned: 24%

Somewhat concerned: 36%

Not very concerned: 33%

Not sure: 7%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Trump Endorsement

I asked lobbyists, “What's the impact of a Trump endorsement in a Missouri Republican primary this year?”  27 replies…

RESULTS

1. It guarantees victory… 14.8%

2. Nothing’s guaranteed, but it’s a major boost… 48.1%

3. Moderate bump… 33.3%

4. No real impact… 3.7%

Sample of Comments

·       Schaefer is done for, so is Bailey.

·       The only endorsement that matters.

·       When the cult leader speaks, the cult listens.

·       Trumps popularity with swing voters and has been diminished while they aren’t supporting Biden his endorsement isn’t what it used to be. He has also now disagreed with a major tenant of Missouri republicans either he is wrong or they are both can’t be right on the life issue.

·       Hard to guess who’s going to turnout but primary voters are typically the hard core. Trump also wouldn’t endorse without strong polling- he picks winners.

·       I think Trump folks still ardently support him but Trump has turned on a lot of people he endorsed at one point or another so his endorsements really doesnt mean what it used to.

·       Results have gone both ways with Trump endorsed candidates, but could be because of a poorly run campaign or many other factors.

·       It guarantees nothing, but it's really helpful.

·       Just depends. He’s got a mixed record.

·       Onder = win. Gov = Trump tips the scales. Lt. Gov = Only way someone might break through. SOS = gets them to 15-18%. Treasurer = Makes Malek viable or Cody’s fundraising deficit irrelevant. AG = Schaaf money machine will only grow. So yep, it’s a guarantee.

·       While his endorsement has not been THE deciding factor in past races, in Missouri it sure seems to have more of an impact.

·       The only endorsement that matters.

Who Won the Week?

Bob Onder – Pulls down the holy grail of Missouri Republican politics, a Trump endorsement.

Mike Kehoe – The string of Ashcroft fumbles continues.  The latest being questions about his claim to be an engineer.

Bill Eigel – Polls have him gaining ground.  Is he going to make a late dash for the governor’s mansion?

Trial attorneys – Their trade continues to gain currency within Republican circles.  The latest example is Senator Josh Hawley hoping they “sue the living daylights” out of chicken corp Tyson.

Bill Byrnes – Rep. Tricia Byrnes’ husband plays the hands he’s dealt and puts together a good run at the World Series of Poker, taking home a $100,000 payout.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Hamra for Missouri - $250,000 from Michael Hamra.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $32,538 from Beau Brauer.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Paladin PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from McBride & Son Properties LLC.

American Dream PAC - $7,175 from Missouri American Water Employees PAC.

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $19,350 from Dennis Hall.

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC - $10,000 from Onder Law.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Gladius PAC (pro-Christofanelli) - $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Red Hawk PAC (pro-Dinkins) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $20,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.

NEMO Leadership PAC - $10,000 from Health PAC.

1776 PAC (pro-Shcroer) - $26,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.

1776 PAC - $6,500 from Missouri Soybean Assoc.

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $10,000 from Clinical Reference Laboratories (Lenexa, KS).

Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $25,000 from Michael Conoyer.

Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $25,000 from Tim Sullivan.

MO-DSV PAC - $110,291 from Missouri Health Care Association.

RQC PAC - $108,572 from Missouri Health Care Association.

AGC of MO PAC - $15,600 from Tramar Contracting Inc.

AGC of MO PAC - $6,885 from McCoy Construction (Dubuque, IA).

AGC of MO PAC - $6,670 from BAM Contracting.

International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $38,275 from IBT DRIVE (Washington, DC)

CWA-COPE Political Contributions Federal Committee - $5,950 from Communications Workers of America- COPE PCC (Washington, DC).

Deere & Company Political Action Committee MO-Federal Committee - $17,800 from Deere & Company PAC (Moline, IL).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Reps. Richard Brown and Scott Cupps, Jeff Howell, Brent Lasater, Tim Meadows, Gary Marshall, and Cory McMahon.

Sunday: David Winton.