MOScout Daily Update: July Fundraising Numbers Rundown - Wasinger Adds Another Million - MOChamber Leadership Change and more…

A few developments before the monster fundraising run-down….

Wasinger Adds Another Million

As a reminder the numbers in today’s rundown are about two weeks old now.  They show where the campaigns bank accounts stood at the end of June.  They provide insights, but it’s rear-view mirror data not real time data.  As a timely example, yesterday David Wasinger, running for the Republican LG spot, added a fresh $1 million to his campaign. 

·       There are two interpretations of the move.  One, that he’s seeing the race is winnable and is re-committing to finish the job.  The other, that the first $1.5 million didn’t move his numbers, so he’s needing to add more.  We’ll see…

Chamber Changes Leadership

Kara Corches was named interim CEO of the Missouri Chamber after Dan Mehan “announced his retirement… after nearly three decades at the helm of Missouri’s largest and most powerful business association.”

·       One MOScouter speculates: Seems like a safe move to hand the interim title to someone who isn’t in the running for the full-time job as they consider their candidates. COO Brendan Cossette will be on that list. I’ve heard Aaron Willard’s name in speculation.

MO Connections to RNC

·       Senator Eric Schmitt is on tap to address the Republican convention tonight.

·       Veep nominee JD Vance’s general consultant, Luke Thompson, is also the GC for Bill Eigel’s super PAC (BILLPAC).

And now the July campaign finance reports…

Governor’s Race

Republicans…

Jay Ashcroft raised $309,258; and had $770,196 on-hand.

·       Committee for Liberty PAC raised $391,813; and had $730,685 on-hand.

Bill Eigel raised $ 231,352; and has $588,775 on-hand.       

·       BILL PAC raised $580,916; and had $242,693 on-hand.

Mike Kehoe raised $ 879,205; and had 2,285,167 on-hand.

·       American Dream PAC raised $3,504,376; and had $4,010,832 on-hand.

Democrats…

Crystal Quade raised $ 276,621; and had 389,02 on-hand.

·       Crystal PAC raised $42,600; and had $126,154 on-hand.

Mike Hamra raised $ 409,037; and had $495,794 on-hand.

·       Together Missouri PAC raised $58,000; and had $206,112 on-hand.

State of the Race: Kehoe continues to dominate the money race.  He’s spent a fair amount early and it seems to be working.  He still has an overwhelming lead as we enter the final stretch.  On the Dem side, Hamra’s money lead has widened.  I just wonder if the gender gap will be too wide to overcome this year.  I feel like Dems will be voting for women this year.

Other Statewide Races

Lieutenant Governor          

Lincoln Hough raised $231,146; and had 519,989 on-hand.

·       Lincoln PAC raised $724,024; and had $639,074 on-hand.

Holly Thompson Rehder raised $69,838; and had 338,540 on-hand.

·       Southern Drawl raised $53,075; and had $286,414 on-hand.

Tim Baker raised $5,585; and $2,917 had on-hand.

Dave Wasinger raised $1,534,260; and had $1,279,256 on-hand.

Matthew Porter raised $136,031; and had $104,955 on-hand.

·       Fighting for Missouri Families raised $7,851 and had $3,384 on-hand.

Paul Berry hasn’t filed his April or July report yet.

Democrat Richard Brown raised $1,735;  and had $4,350 on-hand.

State of the Race: Hough continued to put up big numbers, but it’s being overshadowed by Wasinger’s self-funding.  The question is whether Wasinger’s spending is effective.  Hough “looks” more Republican to outstate Missouri.

Attorney General     

Andrew Bailey raised $274,222; and had $689,166 on-hand.

·       Liberty and Justice PAC raised $847,000; and had $768,506 on-hand.

Will Scharf raised $530,964; and had $1,264,040 on-hand.

·       Club for Growth Action raised $3,400,000; and had $2,966,563 on-hand.

Democrat Elad Gross raised $68,913; and had $57,587 on-hand.

State of the Race: Bailey and Scharf are both shoveling huge amounts of money at this race. With very similar messages, this feels coin-toss-ish.

Secretary of State    

Denny Hoskins raised $16,387; and had $72,570 on-hand.

·       Old Drum Conservative PAC raised $5,750; and had $149,401 on-hand.

Shane Schoeller raised $38,125; and had $11,330 on-hand.

·       Safe Elections PAC raised $1,000; and had $13,041 on-hand.

Adam Schwadron raised $9,470; and had 78,125 on-hand.

·       Missouri Values PAC raised $75,000; and had $144,980 on-hand.

Valentina Gomez raised $15,019; and had 12,862 on-hand.

Dean Plocher raised $11,540; and had $508,414 on-hand.

·       Missouri United PAC raised $11,760; and had $727,913 on-hand.

Jamie Corley raised $278,799; and had $271,847 on-hand.

·       The Missouri Conservatives Fund was formed after the deadline.

Mary Elizabeth Coleman raised $119,685; and had $122,517 on-hand.

·       Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC raised $57,350; and had $131,590 on-hand.

Mike Carter raised $0; and had $0 on-hand.

Democrat Barbara Phifer raised $ 49,734  ;  and had $34,402 on-hand.

State of the Race: When I look through the TV ad buys, I haven’t seen one for the SOS race – either PAC or candidate. This is a hand-to-hand combat race.  Plocher has the money lead, but hasn’t really spent any of it yet.

Treasurer      

Vivek Malek raised $207,377; and had $1,373,799 on-hand.

·       American Promise PAC raised $1,840,378; and had $1,512,354 on-hand.

Cody Smith raised $35,800; and had $291,009 on-hand.

·       Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC raised $54,850; and had $227,251 on-hand.

Andrew Koenig raised $13,561; and had $104,098 on-hand.

·       Freedom’s Promise PAC raised $0; and had $63,165 on-hand.

Lori Rook raised $17,470; and had $264,348 on-hand.

Democrat Mark Osmack raised $24,643; and had $13,027 on-hand.

State of the Race: This looks like a two-way race between Cody and Vivek, and with Malek’s PAC not bombarding the airwaves as I’d expected, this will be tight.  We should probably also keep an eye on Rook, if the vote split gets interesting. 

GOP Senate Races

Senate 3

Even fundraising numbers. Henderson feels like the favorite here, but third-party expenditure could also tip this race.

Mike Henderson raised $38,700; and had $65,560 on-hand.

·       Leadbelt PAC raised $60,500; and had $75,388 on-hand.

Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway raised $40,840; and had 73,577 on-hand.

·       Missouri Matters PAC raised $45,020; and had $74,800 on-hand.

Senate 11

McMullen should win this. 

David Martin raised $3,700; and had $379 on-hand.

Aaron McMullen raised $22,390; and had $67,777 on-hand.

·       Independence PAC raised $94,000; and had $165,951 on-hand.

Joe Nicola raised $16,988; and had $33,884 on-hand.

·       Truth and Light PAC raised $7,380; and had $9,120 on-hand.

Senate 15

All candidate committee are about in the same range, though Gregory has a lead with his PAC. 

Jim Bowlin raised $12,587; and had $95,966 on-hand.

·       Conservatives for Accountability PAC raised $6,501; and had $6,586 on-hand.

David Gregory raised $44,661; and had $115,741 on-hand.

·       Show Me Growth PAC raised $18,831; and had $44,136 on-hand.

Mark Harder raised $46,683; and had $90,756 on-hand.

·       St. Louis Conservative Leadership PAC raised $9,100; and had $14,580 on-hand.

Senate 21

Gregory substantial money lead will be hard for Richey to overcome, but he may be the beneficiary of third-party help.  So, we’ll see…

Kurtis Gregory raised $58,830; and had $248,778 on-hand.

·       Wonderdog PAC raised $101,800; and had $191,264 on-hand.

Doug Richey raised $28,810; and had $131,555 on-hand.

·       Cultivating Freedom PAC raised $57,600; and had $81,507 on-hand.

Senate 23       

The Hallway likes Christofanelli’s fundraising advantage to overwhelm Schnelting. I am, as usual, with the Hallway.

Rich Chrismer raised $55,895; and had $63,510 on-hand.

Phil Christofanelli raised $752,8964; and had $303,872 on-hand.

·       Gladius PAC raised $237,927; and had $271,771 on-hand.

Adam Schnelting raised $29,306; and had $120,377 on-hand.

·       Protect Our Kids PAC raised $24,600; and had $69,205 on-hand.

Senate 27       

Burger is outraising Dinkins.  As Burger and Dinkins go blow-for-blow, is there a chance for Turner to sneak in?  He’s raised good money.  Burger’s probably the favorite right now based on money, but this is tight one.

Chris Dinkins raised $13,155; and had $100,199 on-hand.

·       Red Hawk PAC raised $9,000; and had $38,579 on-hand.

Jacob Turner raised $19,138; and had $70,057 on-hand.

·       Faith and Family PAC raised $15,430; and had $35,236 on-hand.

Jamie Burger raised $77,159; and had $129,327 on-hand.

·       Bootheel Values raised $ 110,501; and had $134,993 on-hand.

Senate 29       

It’s dangerous to bet against an incumbent, and Moon has some powerful forces coming in to bolster his war-chest.  Still Haralson has geography.

Susan Haralson raised $26,767; and had $9,519 on-hand.

·       Present Day Conservatives filed Limited Activity.

Mike Moon raised $19,713; and had $63,274 on-hand.

·       Life and Liberty MO PAC raised $32,500; and had $47,542 on-hand.

Senate 31       

Brattin has put together a good campaign.  I’ve believed Houx’s war-chest together with Haffner’s geography would be trouble for Brattin.  We’re three weeks away from finding out.  

Rick Brattin raised $41,965; and had $76,164 on-hand.

·       True Patriot PAC raised $26,500; and had $46,257 on-hand.

Dan Houx raised $28,400; and had $137,055 on-hand.

·       H-PAC raised $ 93,201; and had $294,231 on-hand.

Mike Haffner raised $16,505; and had 76,325 on-hand.

·       CLCP PAC raised $2,500; and had $9,721 on-hand.

Senate 33

Hudson feels like the favorite as the farther right candidate in the Republican primary.  But Smith’s strong quarter plus some geographic roots make this a toss-up right now.

Brad Hudson raised $23,810; and had $93,945 on-hand.

·       Brad PAC raised $ 27,750; and had $27,763 on-hand.

Travis Smith raised $69,501; and had $53,417 on-hand.

·       Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks PAC raised $63,000; and had $207,940 on-hand.

Democratic Senate Primaries

Senate 7

Strong quarters from both candidates.  It feels like a tough year to be running against a woman in a Dem primary.  We’ll see…

Pat Contreras raised $149,046; and had $127,550 on-hand.

·       Neighbors United raised $128,252; and had $128,161 on-hand.

Patty Lewis raised $121,853; and had $121,136 on-hand.

·       Ready to Lead raised $80,650; and had $80,648 on-hand.

Senate 9

Never have I ever seen a state senate primary where both candidates file Limited Activity reports.  Washington holds easily.

Barbara Washington filed Limited Activity

·       Eastside Forward PAC has not filed its report yet.

Brandon Ellington filed Limited Activity.

Senate 13

This is a toss-up now as Nickson-Clark has outspent Mosley.

Angela Mosley raised $0; and had $79,535 on-hand.

·       Mosley PAC was formed after the deadline.

Chantelle Nickson-Clark raised $15,913; and had $3,138 on-hand.

·       Chantelle PAC raised $35,000; and had $9,874 on-hand.

Nuggets from Filings…

·       We Are Missouri, the campaign vehicle which successfully reverse the legislature’s passage of right to work in 2018, gave nearly all of their funds (hundreds of thousands of dollars) to a non-profit, Preserve Middle Class America.  See their website here.

·       Among Rich Chrismer’s contributors in this Senate 23 campaign was none other than Roy Blunt ($250).

·       Vivek Malek’s PAC refunded $1.3 million in contributions from Pacifica Consulting Services LLC.  It makes his war-chest look much less intimidating, particularly because it raises the question whether the rest of the money will be used.

·       Amazingly in Jay Ashcroft’s candidate committee report, there was virtually no voter contact expenses. 

·       Mike Carter is running an “in-kind campaign.”  He raised $0, but gave himself a $54,881 in-kind donation which I assume is his text-messaging campaign.

·       Lori Rook’s largest expenditure was $112,500 to Armor Vine for consulting services.

Top 25 Committees, by COH

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $4,010,833

Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee (pro-Scharf) - $2,966,563 

Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $2,285,168

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $1,930,148        

Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS Area PAC - $1,523,112         

American Promise PAC (pro-Malek) - $1,512,354

Malek for Missouri - $1,373,799

Wasinger For Missouri - $1,279,257

RightPath PAC (WashU supporters) - $1,268,424

Citizens for Scharf - $1,264,041

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1,222,423

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. Political Action Committee - $1,087,872

Luetkemeyer For Missouri - $1,084,963

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (higher minimum wage IP) - $1,059,816

Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government (state takeover of STL police) - $847,372

MAJORITY FORWARD (Senate Dems) - $786,097

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $782,896    

Ashcroft For Missouri - $770,196

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $768,507     

Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $730,686    

Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $727,914    

Lucas For KC - $719,085                  

Bailey for Missouri - $689,166         

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $639,075

Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $608,152

Updates

·       The IE PACs listing is updated with the July quarter numbers.  Several new PACs were added.  See the listing here.

·       2024 Watch database will be updated later today.

Lobbyists Registrations

Kyle Loethen added Missouri Motion Media Association, and Michael Bond.

Jeremy LaFaver deleted South Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, and KC Scholars / Great Jobs KC.

Dan Mehan deleted Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

$5K+ Contributions

Wasinger For Missouri - $1,000,000 from David Wasinger.

Cops for Kehoe - $125,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.

Cops for Kehoe - $100,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.

Cops for Kehoe - $25,000 from Missouri Leadership Forum.

Cops for Kehoe - $7,500 from MLPA Legislative Fund.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $14,950 from Class Act Management Inc.

American Dream PAC - $12,175 from Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Emery Sapp & Sons, Inc.

American Dream PAC – 10,000 from Pace Construction Company.

Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $50,000 from Janet Ashcroft.

Committee for Liberty - $10,000 from Phil Wieneke.

Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee (pro-Scharf) - $50,000 from Penn Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Enterprise Holdings, Inc. Political Action Committee.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $7,500 from Missouri Chamber PAC.

Southern Drawl PAC (pro-Rehder) - $10,000 from Missouri Cable Telecommunications Association.

Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks (pro-Travis Smith) - $10,000 from Paladin PAC.

Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $20,000 from Conservative Justice PAC, LLC.

MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $25,000 from Stueve Siegel Hanson LLP.

Costlow For Missouri - $20,000 from Costlow Enterprises LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Ann Wagner for Congress.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jeanette Mott Oxford, and John Sondag.