MOScout Weekender: Crystal PAC Ad - Senate 33 Poll - Hallway on Freedom Caucus Candidates - WWTW and more…

Reid Service Information

Mr. Michael Cassity Reid, age 77, of Jefferson City, Mo. passed away Wednesday, July 17, 2024, at SSM Health St. Mary’s Hospital.

Visitation will be held at Freeman Mortuary from 4:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. next Monday, July 29, 2024.

A memorial service will be conducted at 2:00 p.m. next Tuesday, July 30, 2024, at Grace Episcopal Church, 217 Adams Street, Jefferson City, Mo. 65101. A reception will follow his service beginning at 4:00 p.m. at 324 E. Capitol Avenue to continue to celebrate Mike and share memories with his family.

In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions are suggested to MSBA FutureBuilders, 2100 I-70 Drive SW, Columbia, Mo. 65203 or Friends of Arrow Rock, 310 Main Street, Arrow Rock, Mo. 65320.

Crystal PAC Ad

Crystal PAC, backing Minority Leader Crystal Quade’s gubernatorial bid, released their first TV ad which starts in rotation in Columbia.

It’s a lesson in message discipline from the PAC as it echoes the same themes, and some of the same phrases as her candidate committee’s ad.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 33 GOP

In addition to the Republican primary, I asked about a couple of the hot statewide contests.  It offers an insight to how those races are looking in this rural southern Missouri district.  Everything looks tight!  Not a great sample size, so be mindful of the large margin of error.  And if you look at the full report, remember those margins of error are much higher when looking at sub-groups.

Survey conducted July 15 through July 18 2024. 289 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.7% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout.  See the full report here.

Q1: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Missouri’s 33rd State Senate District are Brad Hudson and Travis Smith. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Brad Hudson: 29%

Travis Smith: 29%

Undecided: 42%

Q2: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Governor of Missouri are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jay Ashcroft: 22%

Bill Eigel: 19%

Mike Kehoe: 26%

Someone else: 9%

Undecided: 24%

Q3: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Attorney General of Missouri are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Andrew Bailey: 25%

Will Scharf: 23%

Undecided: 52%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: FC Going Statewide

I asked lobbyists, “Which Freedom Caucus member has the best chance of winning statewide this year?” 24 replies…

RESULTS

1. Bill Eigel… 16.7%

2. Denny Hoskins… 16.7%

3. Andrew Koenig… 0%

4. Cody Smith… 62.5%

5. I would bet more than one will win… 4.1%

Sample of Comments

·       I'm saying Eigel today. I would have said Cody 6 months ago.

·       Is Cody really in the Freedom Caucus? If so, then he has the best chance to win.

·       [Hoskins] MRL endorsement in a race that no one is talking about is a huge boon to Denny.

·       [Eigel] I know it sounds crazy, but it could happen

·       [I would bet more than one will win.] Eigel has legit shot, I think race is Cody’s to lose right now.

·       [Smith] I have no problem with Vivek, but hearing a man with a foreign accent talking s&*t on immigrants feels off.

·       [Hoskins] Haven't seen a single ad other than Vivek. This guy is sitting on a treasure trove of campaign cash. Should win out

·       [Eigel] It’s set up nice.

·       Cody is the only one with a real shot at statewide. But Onder will win the 3rd.

·       [Smith] Eigel might make a run but he might need another week until the election. Koenig doesn’t feel like a factor. SOS is such a cluster. Will Scharf should have been an option.

Who Won the Week?

Missouri Republicans – After months of feeling like they’d be on the defense due to extreme abortion laws, it feels like a change in momentum brought on by the assassination attempt, and Democrats’ disarray as they try to replace their presidential nominee.

Senate Dems – In all five possible battleground districts right now, the Democratic candidates have raised good money.  A sweep will be a tough trick to pull off, but they’re doing everything right so far.

David Wasinger and Mike Hamra – The two outsiders are throwing in a lot of their own cash.  They have what Phil Gramm called “the most reliable friend you can have in American politics, and that is ready money.”

Lauren Arthur – The respected termed senator gets a nice gubernatorial appointment to the Labor and Industrial Relations Commission.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Malek for Missouri - $550,000 from Vivek Malek.

Hamra for Missouri - $350,000 from Michael Hamra.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Protection Plus LLC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Missouri AG PAC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Robert Blitz.

American Promise PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Leadership Forum.

American Promise PAC - $10,000 from Conservative Justice PAC, LLC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from MACO Development Company, LLC.

The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $10,000 from Stanley Kuecker.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from Lawrence Dalton.

Jackson County Leadership PAC (pro-Cierpiot) - $10,000 from MEDA PAC.

Nexus PAC - $10,000 from Nexus Group.

ASA Midwest PAC - $7,000 from American Dream PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Brad Lager, and Dick Fleming.

Sunday: Congresswoman Cori Bush, Christian Morgan, and Sally Faith.