MOScout Daily Update: Senate 13 Poll - Hot Primaries Heat Up - Schwadron, Coleman Sit on Cash - Trump Non-Endorsement - Hamra Adds $$$ and more…

Hot Primaries Heat Up

·       In Senate 7, supporters of Rep. Patty Lewis are fired up about B-roll they found which hints at negative attacks coming.  See Rep. Ashley Aune’s twitter post here.

·       In Senate 15, Rep. David Gregory is hitting his chief rival, Mark Harder.  See a mailer here.  And Harder is hitting back, with a website: Where Was David.

·       The Senate 23 primary is likely going to be the nastiest.  The two sides have been trading barbs about consultants.  And Rep. Adam Schnelting continues to hit Rep. Phil Christofanelli on LGBT issues, an attempt perhaps to highlight Christfanelli being openly gay to his hard-right base in the primary.

No Exclusive Trump Endorsement in Gov’s Race

Donald Trump endorsed all three major candidates in the Republican gubernatorial race.  Each then blasted the news out – conveniently leaving out the fact that their rivals were also endorsed.

·       Minor relief perhaps for Bill Eigel, who’d previously had a run-in with the Trump campaign over an email program, and Mike Kehoe, who’s using Trump-blacklisted Axiom Strategies, in that they weren’t penalized.  But overall, no impact.

8-Day Reports

8-Day Reports are due to the Missouri Ethics Commission today at 5PM.  Previous reports covered the campaigns’ contributions and expenditures for the three months ending June 30.  These reports cover July 1 – July 25.  It’s our last glimpse inside campaigns’ spending until the look back after the election.

A couple of nuggets from early filings…

·       Right Path – Its largest contributions were to Mike Kehoe’s PAC ($175,000), Lincoln Hough’s ($50,000), Aaron McMullen’s ($20,000), and Mike Henderson’s ($15,000).  They threw less amounts to both sides in Senate 13 ($2,000 to Chantelle Nickson-Clark, and $1,000 to Mosley PAC).

·       STLCO PAC – This is a vehicle of Sen. Brian Williams.  All of its expenditures in this filing went to help Rep. Gretchen Bangert running for St. Louis County Council race.  That led one MOScouter to wonder if “someone is gearing up to run for County Executive…”

·       Vivek Malek’s American Promise PAC – Spent $1.2 million in the last three weeks.  That together with an additional expenditure (on TV and mailers) for $300,000-ish means American Promise has pretty well spent its entire war-chest.

·       In the SOS race, things are different.  The 8-Day report from Rep. Adam Schwadron’s campaign committee showed only $5K spent (radio ads) in the past three weeks with $75K still in the bank – the same amount of his personal loan.  It looks like he’s not going to spend that.  And similarly, the PAC of Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman hasn’t been making many expenditures either.  Its 8-Day report only spent $7,000, none of it on voter contact, even as it sits on $159,000.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 13

Survey conducted July 25 - 28, 2024. 347 likely 2024 Democratic Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: What is your opinion of Chantelle Nickson-Clark?

Favorable: 25%

Unfavorable: 11%

No opinion: 64%

Q2: What is your opinion of Angela Mosley?

Favorable: 32%

Unfavorable: 13%

No opinion: 55%

Q3: Candidates in the Democratic Primary for Missouri State Senate District 13 are Chantelle Nickson-Clark and Angela Mosley. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Chantelle Nickson-Clark: 21%

Angela Mosley: 26%

Undecided: 53%

Late Personal Contributions

More Mike Hamra money – Hamra added $350,000 over the weekend.  That brings his total contribution to his governor’s campaign to $1.95 million.

More David Gregory money – Gregory added $140,000. That follows last week’s $100,000.  This last money may be the difference-maker in Senate 15 and send him to a November face-off with Democrat Joe Pereles.

More David Wasinger money – A limited partnership (DACA Partners III) related to Wasinger sent $300,000 to a PAC.  Why a PAC instead of his candidate committee?  Most likely because it’s earmarked for a negative attack…

Uniting Missouri Reloads

It’s a strange thing.  Uniting Missouri, the political action committee supporting Governor Mike Parson, received two large checks ($300,000 from Holland Law Firm LLC, and $100,000 from David Steward).

Parson is term limited and now five months from political retirement.

Will the money be used to some end-of-term celebrations?  For some last-minute efforts to boost the governor’s endorsed candidates?  We’ll see…

eMailbag on Dem Gov Race

I think the endorsements matter more than folks think in a Dem primary too. Primary voters frequently look up the candidates online before they go vote, or check the papers, or at least look at the cards handed out to them at their polling place, etc. Anywhere they look for advice from a person or group they trust of who to vote for, the response will be Quade, not Hamra. That matters.

Lobbyists Registrations

Andy Arnold added Steady Platform, Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $75,000 from Rory Gates (Washington, DC).

Hamra for Missouri - $50,000 from Michael Hamra.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $50,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.

Missouri First Conservative PAC - $300,000 from DACA Partners III LP.

Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (pro-Mary Elizabeth Coleman) - $8,000 from Missouri Charter Schools Action.

Gregory For Missouri - $140,000 from David J Gregory.

Protect our Kids PAC (pro-Schnelting) - $23,000 from Shawnee Bluff Winery53.

AFC Victory Fund - $167,000 from AFC Victory Fund (Alexandria, VA)

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $20,000 from Mid America Carpenters Regional Council.

Stop Gun Violence Now PAC - $25,000 from Evergy Metro, Inc.

Committee to Elect Rick Geller Sheriff - $6,000 from Richard Geller.

Growth and Opportunity PAC - $12,600 from David Steward.

St Louis County Democratic Central Committee - $5,500 from Doll for Missouri.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Karla Eslinger, and Vicki Englund.