MOScout Daily Update: Hawley-Kunce Stare Down! - Windham Withdraws - 2026 Senate Storm? - Osete Fundy and more…
Quick Friday update…
Kunce and Hawley Stare Down At State Fair
The big news at the State Fair was a stare-down between US Senate candidates…
· One reader quips that an apt caption would be: Two guys from Yale arguing over who can say “Missourah” better.
Windham Withdraws from Re-election
Rep. Kevin Windham has withdrawn from the November ballot. Word is that he’s been offered a job which changes his future plans. He’s not resigning though. He still plans to serve until the new legislature is sworn-in in January.
· House 74 is a safe Democratic seat. The Democratic legislative committee will nomination a replacement.
Eying 2026
Some folks are already eying the 2026 cycle warily as it could profoundly reshape the Senate. This year’s election appears to be close to a wash in the Senate with regard to the Freedom Caucus. Although there’s some consternation that the upper chamber will be mired in dysfunction like its recent sessions, it’s a situation that seems familiar at this point.
2026 could produce a quite different scenario.
In 2026, there will be six senators who have been stalwart members of “the regulars” that will be term limited out. Mike Bernskoetter, Justin Brown, Mike Cierpiot, Sandy Crawford, Lincoln Hough, and Cindy O’Laughlin will all be exiting. If half of them are replaced by Freedom Caucus members, the balance of power will shift with the regulars representing just a plurality of the Senate.
What It Means
· This will be the year for Republicans to act. Assuming Mike Kehoe wins, it’ll be the first year of his term as well as that of Speaker JP. Republican leadership will be at the height of its power, will no election year turbulence.
· Longer term, the regulars need to focus on recruitment and messaging if they hope to keep the Freedom Caucus contained.
Osete Fundy
Tipster says over 100 people in attendance last night at Jesus Osete’s fundraiser. He’s running for circuit judge – the only contested circuit judge race in the state. It’s an open seat vacated by retiring judge Kevin Crane.
Among the bold-faced names: Eric Schmitt, Mark Alford, Bob Onder, Vivek Malek, Rusty Black, Stephanie Bell, Marc Ellinger, Jac Cardetti, and Kurt Schaefer.
Finally
Because this was phrase was popping up again. We all love agriculture, but even at the State Fair we can acknowledge that agriculture is not Missouri’s “#1 industry.” When it comes to making policy, “it always helps to know the truth.”
$5K+ Contributions
Lincoln PAC - $69,975 from American Freedom Coalition (Pueblo West, CO).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Minority Leader Crystal Quade, Rep. Rudy Veit, Sue Meredith, Randy Wright, and Jesus Osete.