MOScout Daily Update: Revenues Weak - Veto Session Fundys - Smith for Terry - Coleman to STL? and more…

August Revenues – So Far

We’re days away from the end of the second month of the new fiscal year and, so far, it looks like the lackluster tax receipts has continued.  As of the close of business Tuesday, net general revenue collections were down 7% compared to August 2023.  That’s in line with the decline the state saw in July.

The consensus revenue estimate calls for flat revenue this fiscal year.

·       Next month’s numbers, with its quarterly withholding payments date, will be closely watched.  If this trend holds during September, the legislature – and the next governor – may be faced with a shortfall to address in January.

Reading Into Veto Fundraisers

Folks are already sending their Veto Session invites.  These two, for Senate Republicans, hint at the upper chamber’s leadership race.  One is hosted by Sen. Jason Bean, who’s running for Floor Leader.  Another has more incumbent senators on the list, including Bean’s leadership race opponent, Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer. The third possible candidate, Sen. Travis Fitzwater, isn’t on either.

Coleman to CWE?

Post-Dispatch reports that “the family of state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, of Jefferson County, recently purchased a house in the Central West End and sold one in her Senate district… She dismissed the idea that she might be on her way out.  “Jefferson County is home and always will be,” she wrote in a text message. “My residence is in the district, and I am running for re-election.”

·       If Coleman gets primaried by the Freedom Caucus (or anyone else), I’m sure Jefferson County Republican primary voters will be hearing a lot about this house in St. Louis City.

Smith for Terry

According to an amended filing by Quality Schools Coalition, lobbyist Jeff Smith helped organize and coordinate canvassing in support of Rep. Marlene Terry’ re-election.  See the paperwork here.

Terry trounced former Rep. Tommie Pierson Sr. (64%-36%) in their primary.  Terry was one of three House Dems who voted for the huge education bill (SB 727) last session.  Rep. Steve Butz won his primary as well, while Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark lost to incumbent Sen. Angela Mosley (56%-43%).

·       For Smith, it may have been a bit of a nostalgic return to his campaigning roots.  Twenty years ago in 2004, Smith ran for Congress.  He narrowly lost to Russ Carnahan in a campaign that heavy on door-knocking and grass-roots volunteers.

Second House Hearing on Childcare Subsidy

As the issue of the delayed childcare subsidies heats up, the House has scheduled a second hearing on the issue during Veto Session.  In addition to the previously announced Budget committee hearing on Wednesday, the House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday (2PM) “to investigate the causes and impacts of delays in issuing childcare payments by the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE).”

·       This hearing will provide a platform for examining the reasons behind the payment delays, the steps DESE has taken to address the backlog, and measures to prevent future occurrences. Representatives from DESE have been invited to testify regarding these issues, ensuring a thorough review and transparent discussion.

eMailbag on MOScout Battleground House Districts

You may want to consider moving HD 56—the Michael Davis seat—to battleground status.  He won the primary with less than a majority and… the Dem in the race is a leading member of the business community in the area running an aggressive campaign and has already lined up many GOP supporters of the two candidates who opposed Davis in the primary. With a Trump difference of 11 points that could well be made up ​with Republicans disaffected by Davis. 

Lobbyists Registrations

Rodney Hubbard deleted Department of Sheriff/City of St. Louis.

$5K+ Contributions

Old Drum Conservative PAC (pro-Hoskins) - $25,000 from August Busch III.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Hausman for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,500 from Friends of Jeff Knight.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Evergy Metro, Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,500 from Atria Client Services LLC (Richmond, VA).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,001 from Irwin For Missouri.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Robin Smith.

MOScout Schedule

After tomorrow’s update, I’ll be off for the long Labor Day weekend.