MOScout Daily Update: Polls Open in 24 Hours - Keathley Sues Brunner - Pick’em Contest - O’Laughlin for House? and more…

We’ll start with this lovely social media “postcard” from Fitz.  Ah, the joys of being off-cycle…

Breaking… Keathley Sues Brunner

Rep. Ben Keathley filed a defamation suit against John Brunner last week.  Keathley and Brunner (the son of John Brunner who ran for governor in 2016) faced off in a spirited primary in 2022.  Keathley won with 54.8% of the vote.  The suit stems from that race.

From the suit:  While a majority of the indecent and inflammatory statements made by Defendants did not rise to the level of legal action, that changed on or about July 29, 2022. On that day, voters began receiving a mailer accusing Plaintiff of, among other things, not owning a house in the 101st District.  This was false, as Plaintiff does, and at all times relevant here, did own a home within the 101st District.

·       The Mailer also claimed that Plaintiff “DECIDED TO LIE ON LEGAL FILINGS WITH THE MISSOURI ETHICS COMMISSION AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE ABOUT WHERE HE LIVED.” (emphasis in original)  This was false, as Plaintiff never lied on any legal filings to the MEC or SOS.

·       This is accusing Plaintiff of crimes both under R.S.Mo Section 115, as well as other unspecified state laws…

·       This has caused severe damage to Plaintiff’s reputation and was done with malice, on the eve of a primary election, with the obvious, express intent to cause such damage to Plaintiff….

Notes From Final Poll

Looking over the poll from last weekend, here are a couple thoughts…

Governor’s race: My gut is that undecideds 15%, perhaps dazed by the non-stops, revert disproportionally to the familiar Ashcroft name. 

Lieutenant Governor’s race: Holly Rehder is right there in the margin of error with Dave Wasinger and Lincoln Hough.  She’s probably benefiting from being top of the ticket (we’re seeing that in the governor’s race as well as the secretary of state’s race, both races with lots of candidates).  But also, she’s been in the clear while Hough and Wasinger trade blows. 

Secretary of State’s race: With 37% undecided in this race, the poll really didn’t give us  uch information.  I was surprised by Dean Plocher’s low result (6%) given he had the biggest war-chest.  I’m wondering if SOS candidates would have been wise with their limited resources to skip the St. Louis media market altogether.  With the 1-CD primary, there’s an extra $10 million in ads being aired there.  It’s so hard not to have your message lost in that flood.

Treasurer’s race: Vivek Malek, in addition to spending oodles of money on ads, is benefitting from a splintered opposition. His 33% standing would be problematic if his top three opponents were consolidated (Smith 13%, Rook 12%, Koenig 10%).

Attorney General’s race: Andrew Bailey’s lead is the result of a top-notch campaign.  How do you hold off a hard-right Will Scharf with deep pocketed supporters? Run as far right as you can without stepping out of bounds, and never stop raising money.

O’Laughlin for House?

Senate Floor Leader Cindy O’Laughlin amended her campaign committee to say that she’d be seeking the House 4 seat in 2026.  The current representative, Greg Sharpe, would be termed out at that time. It’s unusual for senators to continue their careers in the lower chamber, but not unheard of. 

·       And it could also be a placeholder to park campaign cash while mulling her future.

MOScouters Pick’em Contest

Every election I have this fun little contest so readers can compete for title of Guru of the Year. This year, there are so many close races.  It’s super hard.  Good luck…   

·       Entries must be emailed (dave@moscout.com), no texts, no voicemails.  Email only.  By midnight tonight. 

Tell me who will win these 12 races…

Governor GOP (Ashcroft, Eigel, Kehoe)

Governor Dem (Hamra, Quade)

LG GOP (Hough, Rehder, Wasinger)

SOS GOP (Carter, Coleman, Corley, Hoskins, Gomez, Plocher, Schoeller, Schwadron)

Treasurer GOP (Koenig, Malek, Rook, Smith)

AG GOP (Bailey, Scharf)

Dem Senate 7 (Contreras, Lewis)

Dem Senate 13 (Mosley, Nickson-Clark)

GOP Senate 21 (Gregory, Richey)

GOP Senate 23 (Chrismer, Christofanelli, Schnelting)

GOP Senate 27 (Burger, Dinkins, Turner)

GOP Senate 33 (Hudson, Smith)

eMailbag: I-70 Sign Indicators

One reader gives his view of the races from the windshield: Based on signs along I-70, here is my conclusion: Kehoe wins governor, followed by Canter Law (I know he's not running but they have an obscene number of signs); I'm not sure I saw an Ashcroft sign. Luna will be the coroner in Montgomery County (he has a ton of signs). Schaefer beats Onder. If only it was this simple!

Hamra Passes

Sam Hamra, father of Mike Hamra, passed away.  From the Springfield News-Leader: Sam Hamra, who previously had been honored with a Key to the City in 2022 and was named Springfieldian of the Year in 2018, was an attorney and restaurateur whose Hamra Enterprises owns and operates more than 150 restaurants.

“Sam was a community builder and expressed his love for southwest Missouri by continually contributing to the Springfield area,” Mayor Ken McClure said in a news release Saturday offering condolences to the family. “Sam was one-of-a-kind and made an impact on so many aspects of Springfield."

Hamra was the son of a Lebanese immigrant, and grew up in Steele. An Army veteran, he earned degrees from the University of Missouri in business and law and in the past worked as Nixa's city attorney and Branson's governmental relations attorney…

Hamra helped found Legal Services of Southwest Missouri, which provides legal services to those who can't otherwise afford them, and served as the first board chairman of the nonprofit. The Sam F. Hamra Center for Justice is named in his honor.

Lobbyists Registrations

Ron Hicks added MO Hemp Trade Association, Great State Strategies LLC, Pinnacle Distribution, Shaman Botanicals, Shaman Pharma LLC, Midwest Psychedelic Training, and Vapor Maven MO.

Eapen Thampy added Prohibition Hemp.

Doug Stone added SDG Union Hill Partners LLC, and 165 Cabin Development LLC.

Andy Arnold deleted MO Coalition for Video Lottery, LLC.

Tom Dempsey deleted Mercy Healthcare Systems.

Paul Lewis deleted Paul Lewis LLC.

Mike Grote deleted Dogwood Energy LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Hamra for Missouri - $175,000 from Mike Hamra.

American Dream PAC - $20,000 from CHC Inc. (Lenexa, KS).

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Plumber and Pipefitter Local 562 Political Fund 3640.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from 3D Political Fund – State.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Enterprise Holdings PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to George Draper III.