MOScout Daily Update: Readers React to Election… Williams to Challenge Page? Who Won Education Battle? Freedom Caucus 2025?Governor Onder? and more…
O’Laughlin Looks to Unite
On Facebook, Senate Leader Cindy O’Laughlin strike a conciliatory tone, promising support for nominees as she hopes to keep her caucus from its previously splintering ways...
On behalf of my Missouri Senate Republican Colleagues, I am excited to congratulate our candidates, Robert Crump, Mike Henderson, Joe Nicola, David Gregory, Jerry Nolte, James Coyne, Kurtis Gregory, Adam Schnelting, Jason Bean, Jamie Burger, Mike Moon, Rick Brattin, and Brad Hudson who won their primaries and will be our candidates for this November’s General Election. We are excited to move Missouri forward and deliver conservative results.
To date, as the Senate Majority Leader, I am proud we have raised nearly $700,000 to fund this fall’s competitive races and protect our majority in the Senate… I am pleased with our fundraising success so far, as our 2023 donations came in larger than expected commitments and so far in 2024, our fundraising commitments are up 35% when compared to commitments for 2022… I plan to work every day from now until November to ensure our candidates have strong financial support in their upcoming races.
But
Building denizens wonder what sort of behavior will be get from the Freedom Caucus. Is O’Laughlin holding a bum hand from the start? Among considerations and chatter…
· Without Bill Eigel, who will assume the mantle of informal leader of the group? One possibility: Sen. Nick Schroer stepping up.
· 2025 not being an election year, it’s likely we’ll see less posturing and less divisive amendment making.
· Don’t count members too quickly. Joe Nicola (Senate 11) has a serious challenge from Democrat Rep. Robert Sauls before he makes it to Jeff City.
· Soon-to-be Sen. Brad Hudson is said to be more in the mold of Andrew Koenig. Very conservative yes, but also not a bomb-thrower, and more interested in getting results than headlines.
Still
One Republican (in the House) frets to me privately: The Hard Right wants to turn Missouri into Kansas and will not stop until they get a Democrat governor, lose a Congressional seat or two, and flush the super-majorities in Jefferson City down the toilet to prove their point.
STL County Drama
Folks mentioned that I missed covering the St. Louis County Council elections. It’s front-page today on the Post-Dispatch.
One clear loser: County Executive Sam Page. Voters kept Councilwoman Shalonda Webb, a sometimes bitter Page rival. They picked Gretchen Bangert, whom Page repeatedly asked to drop out of the race. And they chose Michael Archer, a Republican who replaced frequent Page ally Ernie Trakas. The county executive has been fighting for months to get his agenda through the seven-member council. The primary results mean the council will likely retain just one clear Page ally. It could mean a veto-proof majority for Page’s rivals.
What It Means
One reader thinks this sets the stage for Sen. Brian Williams to challenge Page. “His STLCO PAC invested in 10 races in North STL County winning 9 of them, including Webb and Bangert. With Page down to one County Council ally and less than $200k in the bank, he is looking vulnerable to a challenge from Williams who already has over $300k in the bank.”
Follow-up on Education Wars
As usual, readers duel in my in-box.
· One points out my “you wrote about Ed reformers losing around the state but Rep. Marlene Terry beat her popular predecessor ex-Rep. Tommie Pierson 2:1, against a ton of MNEA ads, texts, etc., with Rep. Steve Butz did the same against a former Alderman, was a nice pair of wins for two of the three House Dems who voted for SB 727. And despite recent headlines about her fiancé being charged with money laundering, Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark got 43% primary-ing an incumbent senator with 50 years of North County name ID thanks to her father, sister, and husband (all of whom were elected before her).”
· Another reader channels public schoolers’ happy dance at the results: “The story of the primary was the failure of school privatizers. These folks pumped nearly $500k into huge losses in SD 13, SD 11, SD 21, SD 23, and SD 27. This resulted in public school advocates actually gaining ground in the Senate even after more than a million dollars from AFC, Quality Schools Coalition, and others. While privatizers picked up a handful of House seats through attrition and big spends, they also lost House seats after spending hundreds of thousands in HD 1 and HD 123 combined.”
Follow-up on Bean PAC
Thanks to the reader who noticed an omission on my part yesterday. In addition to Sen. Jason Bean’s PAC (Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri) donations to Burger, Kurtis Gregory, Henderson and Haralson, it also gave $20,000 to the pro-Travis Smith PAC, bringing Bean’s record on the night to a more even 3-2.
Making Sense of The GOP Gov Race
One reader – who picked Jay Ashcroft to win – offers this assessment for his third place showing…
Ashcroft’s support was the softest and squishiest. Bill Eigel’s people were bought in and weren’t missing the election. Underrated in this was that Mike Kehoe also had a large group of people who were bought in and weren’t missing the election. They just weren’t online like the Eigel people were. Low turnout meant that the reliable voters (also normally the informed voters) and the activated voters show up and it seemed like Ashcroft was counting on the low-information voter which didn’t turn out.
July Revenue Drop
One month does not a trend make. But something to keep an eye on. It’s been a while since Jefferson City has experienced a tough budget year.
· State Budget Director Dan Haug announced today that 2025 fiscal year-to-date net general revenue collections decreased 7.3 percent compared to July 2023, from $898.7 million last year to $833.5 million this year.
Parson to Panama Friday
Press release: From August 10-13, Governor Mike Parson and First Lady Teresa Parson will travel to the Republic of Panama for an international Trade Mission. Panama is a key trade partner for Missouri, with $37 million in exports in 2023.
Stop Gun Violence Now PAC
In the large contributions (below) there’s a quarter million dollars coming into Stop Gun Violence PAC. They spent money on the Prosecuting Attorney race in Jackson County. It does not appear to be a PAC aimed at state legislative races.
Trump Congratulations Onder
Former President Donald Trump called Bob Onder to congratulation him winning the 3-CD race. Listen along here.
And
One reader imagines Governor Onder someday… “While not a phenomenon in Missouri, there are several states where members of Congress go back and get elected governor. Tim Walz comes to mind, and there are others... What Congressman-elect Bob Onder will find as a member of a dysfunctional Congress is that it’s a boring, largely ineffectual job. Meanwhile back in Missouri, the clown car of Republican officeholders will become largely unknown outside of the Jeff City media market. And Onder could readily become the governor who succeeds Mike Kehoe. (Or Crystal Quade, if the world turns upside down in November, which it won't).”
Lobbyists Registrations
Mike Gibbons and Tricia Workman deleted The Literacy Lab.
Emma Leigh Shankland deleted KC Healthy Kids and its affiliates, including but not limited to Greater KC Food Policy Coalition.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Leadership Fund - $250,000 from Accel Entertainment Gaming LLC (Bolling, IL).
Stop Gun Violence Now PAC - $240,000 from Cornerstone.
Taxpayers in Support of Public Education - $85,000 from NEA Advocacy Fund (Washington, DC).
Conservative Leaders of Missouri - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
Missouri Senior PAC - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
Missouri Growth PAC - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
MO Majority PAC LLC - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
Missouri C PAC - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
Missouri AG PAC - $33,000 from Bass Pro, LLC.
BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $25,000 from Independent Life (Jacksonville, FL).
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $20,000 from PMI Global Services Inc (San Ragael, CA).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $15,000 from Ellie Svenson.
Democratic Governors Association – Missouri - $30,000 from Democratic Governors Association (Washington, DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Shawn Furey, Casey Millburg, Greta Bax, and Robbyn Wahby.
MOScout Schedule
No MOScout this weekend.