MOScout Daily Update: GOPers Win Without Majorities - Freedom Caucus Does Well - Kehoe and Quade Win and more…

Check out the full list of winners and losers at the secretary of state website. 

Here’s my first take at last night’s results.  Tell me what did I miss (dave@moscout.com, 314-255-5210).

1 Big Thing: Plurality GOPers

Attorney General Andrew Bailey, the only Republican statewide winner in a one-on-one race, was the anomaly last night taking well over 50% of the primary vote.  All the others failed to win a majority of Republican voters…

Governor – Mike Kehoe… 39.4%

LG – Dave Wasinger… 31.4%

SOS – Denny Hoskins… 24.4%

Treasurer – Vivek Malek… 41.5%

Kehoe acknowledged in his victory speech that the campaign exposed divisions within the Missouri’s Republican coalition. 

Those divisions have been on regular display in the capitol – especially within the Senate where the Freedom Caucus (nee Conservative Caucus) was often at odds with the Republican leadership…

Freedom Caucus Has Very Good Night

While their flagbearer, Bill Eigel, lost his gubernatorial bid, he did outperform expectations, and elsewhere Freedomers generally did well.

·       Bob Onder, one of the original Conservative Caucus members, is headed to Washington DC after besting Kurt Schaefer in the 3-CD primary.

·       Denny Hoskins emerged the winner from the scrum of eight contenders.  It’d be odd to say he won the race handily since his tally was only 24%, but he was a full head and shoulders above the next contender, Shane Schoeller at 17%.

·       And the ran the table on the state senate races, delivering stunning blows to more establishment candidates… Joe Nicola beat Rep. Aaron McMullen, Rep. Adam Schnelting routed Rep. Phil Christofanelli, and Rep. Brad Hudson bested Rep. Travis Smith, while Sens. Rick Brattin and Mike Moon easily held off their challengers.  Their one endorsed loser was Rep. Doug Richey in Senate 21.

The Freedomers were outspent in most of those duels, and – if Nicola can prevail over Democratic Rep. Robert Sauls in November – they’re poised to return to the capitol with a 6-strong caucus capable of knotting up the Senate when they choose.

·       Plus… one tipster says the Freedom Caucus hopes to add 10-15 new members in the House next year…

5 GOP House Incumbents Fall

It was a tough night to be a Republican House incumbent as insurgents upset five members.  The House Republican Campaign Committee doesn’t get involved in primaries – even to help an incumbent.

·       Chris Sander (House 33) has been a thorn in the side of some House Republicans, so a primary challenge was long-expected.  Carolyn Caton, backed by Sen. Mike Cierpiot among others, took him down last night.

·       Tony Lovasco (House 66) survived when his opposition was split in 2022.  But one of those challengers, Deanna Self (a pro-life activist) and beat him in a one-on-one (60% - 40%).

·       Kyle Marquart (House 109) was felled by former Rep. John Simmons.  American Federation for Children Victory Fund (pro-school choice) spent heavily here.  Missouri Ethics Commission reports show over $80,000 from AFC targeting Marquart.

·       Gary Bonacker (House 111) lost in a right-wide challenge from Cecelie Williams that ended up not being especially close (60%-40%).

·       Lisa Thomas (House 123) was defeated by Jeff Vernetti.  Talk of her residency had dogged Thomas, and Vernetti, despite opposition from AFC Victory Fund, rallied to a win.

And Rep. Michael Davis (House 56) survived with 41.9%, as this opposition split evenly between Coach Berck (30.5%) and Commissioner Ryan Johnson (26.7%).

Sinquefield Scorecard

Republican mega-donor Rex Sinquefield registered big wins in his statewide scorecard.  He supported Mike Kehoe to the tune of about $2 million, and Andrew Bailey with nearly another $2 million.  Both won.

However he backed more losers than winners in state senate races as many pro-school choice candidates were rejected by voters.  Sinquefield donated to Aaron McMullen (Senate 11), Doug Richey (Senate 21), Phil Christofanelli (Senate 23) and Chris Dinkins (Senate 27) all of whom lost.  While Sen. Rick Brattin, who he also backed, won in Senate 31.

Bean PAC Does Well

For those with one eye on the Senate Floor Leader race, Sen. Jason Bean’s PAC (Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri) had an OK night, going three for four in his donations…

·       Winner: $20,000 to Jamie Burger’s Bootheel Values PAC.

·       Winner: $7,600 to Mike Henderson’s The Leadbelt PAC.

·       Winner: $7,600 to Kurtis Gregory’s The Wonderdog PAC.

·       Loser: $15,000 to Susan Haralson’s Present Day Conservatives.

Self-Funders

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Mike Hamra spent over $2 million self-funding a Democratic bid.  He lost to Minority Leader Crystal Quade who rounded up the near-unanimous endorsements from the stalwart Democratic constituencies.  Quade, first from her family to graduate high school, had a more natural story for Dems.  And while not a guarantee for victory, on the heel of Dobbs, Dems were itching to vote for women. 

·       And that race also showed that it takes a lot of money to introduce yourself to a statewide audience.

On the Republican lieutenant governor’s race, Dave Wasinger’s $2 million effort to introduce himself paid off as he inched past Sen. Lincoln Hough in a very tight race.  Unlike Hamra where the party base was united behind Quade, Wasinger was essentially in a three-way race with Hough and Sen. Holly Rehder.

And

One reader notes that Mike Hafner had a big night (“The new consultant de jour in Missouri.”)   He was the consultant behind the outsider Wasinger’s campaign.  Hafner also staffed winners Mike Kehoe and Andrew Bailey.

Senate 7: Lewis Takes Nomination

Rep. Patty Lewis trounced Pat Contreras (67%-33%) to replace Greg Razer.  There were a variety of factors at play. In a year when the sting of Dobbs (as mentioned above) has Democrats wanting to send more women to positions of power, Lewis was the right candidate at the right time.  The backroom coronation of Contreras backfired in this environment.

But in addition to these advantages, Lewis came into the race with a strong track record, and worked doubly hard to capitalize on situation so that in the end, it wasn’t even close.

Senate 15: Battle Brewing

After spending a year locked in a three-way tug-of-war, David Gregory emerged the victor. His late money and TV ads carried the way with 40.7% of the vote.  Mark Harder and Jim Bowlin each ran respectably with 34.1% and 25.1%.

But now Gregory faces a well-funded Democrat, Joe Pereles in what will likely be one of the few state senate battles.  There are no obvious attack lines against Pereles who has no voting record, so I assume Gregory’s playbook will be to tie Pereles to national Dems.  We’ll see…

No Pivot from Hoskins

In his victory statement last night, Republican SOS nominee Denny Hoskins didn’t proceed with the time-honored process of scooching back to the middle.  Rather he trumpeted his belief that the 2020 election was “stolen.”  

“I am honored by the support I have received from conservative voters across the state who agree with me that election integrity is of the utmost importance.  I am running because I believe Missouri needs secure elections; we have to ensure that none of the electoral fraud that took place in 2020 and stole the election from President Trump happens here…”

·       I still amazed that otherwise rational politicians are willing to say American elections are fraudulent with no evidence, when it’s plainly obvious Donald Trump was just being a sore loser.

Bell Over Bush

It’s hard to beat an incumbent congressman.  But just as Cori Bush pulled it off against Lacy Clay, Wesley Bell managed it against bush last night.

·       One MOScouter: People are going to blame AIPAC because antisemitism has been so normalized on the far left. If AIPAC was that all-powerful, all of the squad would be gone. It is because Bush has alienated *normal* liberals… alienated labor unions, [and] thrown her constituents under the bus time and time again…

Jennings, Sutton: Gurus of the Year

The MOScout Pick’em contest proved very difficult this year.  No one correctly called all 12 races.  No one even missed only one.  Two folks went 10 for 12.  SCOMO’s Eric Jennings, and building denizen Wes Sutton. 

·       I think I’d give the tie to Jennings whose two misses were squeakers.  He had Lincoln Hough winning LG (Hough lost by 1% to Wasinger), Shane Schoeller (again second) winning SOS. 

Trump Brags on Kehoe

After endorsing Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe, Donald Trump basks in correctly picking the governor’s race….

Lobbyists Registrations

Eapen Thampy added Happy Rock Smoke Shop, and The Hub Smoke Shop.

Carol Kemna, Chris Roepe, and Mark Habbas deleted City of Raymore.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $250,000 from Health Forward Foundation.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $7,450 from Class Act Management Inc.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $100,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.

Defend Missouri (pro-Scharf) - $15,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Red Hawk PAC (pro-Dinkins) - $5,001 from SGI (Hagerstown, MD).

Local 41 Political Action Fund - $14,592 from Missouri PAC Federal Committee.

True North PAC (pro-Arthur) - $10,000 from Catalyst PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Kurtis Gregory, Karlee Seek, Carol Kehoe, Mike Dethrow, and Don Suggs.