MOScout Daily Update: New Ads From Pereles and Nurrenbern PACs - Team Gregory Likes State of the Race - Webber Taunts GOP on A3 and more…
Situational awareness: Today is the last day of the fundraising quarter. Checks must be postmarked today to be included in the results. Filing for the quarter is October 15.
Breaking… Senate 15: Pereles PAC Launches Ad
Fearless PAC, the pro-Joe Pereles political action committee, has launched its first ad. See it here.
Meet Joe Pereles - for nearly 40 years, Joe has been a volunteer with the Red Cross, helping families rebuild from disaster. Now Joe wants to rebuild something else: our broken politics. Joe isn’t a politician. He’s running to make things better for families. He is running to raise teacher pay, reduce classroom sizes, make childcare affordable, and lower the cost of living for all St. Louis families. Fearless Joe Pereles for State Senate.
· Interesting to see that the PAC includes a shot of Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Kehoe in the ad – perhaps a subtle tactic to woo crossover GOPers.
The Case for Gregory
Meanwhile, Team Gregory feels good about the race. Factors giving them confidence…
· The new Senate 15 is more pro-Trump than it was in 2020 (Biden won that district by 1%).
· In 2020, Deb Lavendar took on Andrew Koenig spending $2.8 million against him versus Koenig’s $1.5 million and still lost by 8%. And Lavendar was obviously an extremely hard-working candidate.
· Every poll, including MoScout, shows Gregory with a healthy lead and Trump winning the district.
· There were more Republican votes cast in the August 2024 primary. 22,334 voters for Republicans and 13,501 for Democrats.
First in MOScout… Pro-Nurrenbern Ad
The pro-Maggie Nurrenbern PAC, Northland Forward, has released its first TV ad. See it here.
Meet Maggie Nurrenbern, a mom and former teacher. Maggie knows all families deserve access to high quality public education. She has a proven track record of working with both parties to increase funding for our schools. Maggie knows our teachers need a raise, our kids need a 5-day school week and parents need peace of mind that their kids will come home safe every day. She knows our priorities because she lives them, just like you. Vote Maggie Nurrenbern for state senate.
· Interesting to see that the PAC doesn’t mention the abortion issue. Nurrenbern’s candidate committee had her pro-choice position in her first ad, and it was the focus of her second ad.
More on Senate 17 Poll
Last weekend’s MOScout/Remington Research poll had the Senate 17 race essentially tied. Nurrenbern was leading by a single point in a poll with a margin of error of +/-5%.
But the Nurrenbern camp was probably feeling okay about the snapshot once they looked inside and saw the hefty Republican weighting to the poll: +7.
While Senate 17 is a legitimate swing district – its voters split their tickets and both parties can point to victors – Joe Biden won it in 2020 (by 6 points), as did Nicole Galloway that year (by 4½).
The poll had Nurrenbern holding Dems and winning big with Independents (47%-32%). That’s a recipe for success if it holds for November 5.
Webber Taunts GOP A3 Efforts
Stephen Webber guffawed at a social media post by Republican Party Chair Nick Myers going door-to-door… Reproductive freedom is going to get 70%+ support in Columbia. Please tie as many of your GOP candidates here as you can to No on Amendment 3.
More on Stadium Lobbyists
Last week, writing about the potential for an omnibus-type bill to fund stadiums across Missouri, I mentioned the St. Louis Sports Commission. But they likely would not be involved in the stadium funding conversations. Rather the Dome in St. Louis is “owned” by the St. Louis Regional Sports Authority (represented by Jewell Patek) and operated by St. Louis Convention and Visitors Commission (represented by John Bardgett, Jackie Bardgett, Chris Roepe, and John Dalton).
Lobbyists Registrations
Matt Jessee added Missouri American Water; and deleted Action Now Initiative LLC, and Veterans Guardian - VA Claim Consulting.
Ramona Jacqueline Huckstep deleted Missouri Municipal League.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $30,927 from SpiritJets LLC.
American Dream PAC - $20,000 from Shaman Botanicals LLC.
Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $7,600 from Alliance For Progress LLC.
Brad PAC (pro-Hudson) - $5,600 from Missouri Senior PAC.
Southwest Conservative PAC - $25,000 from Missouri Leadership PAC.
Missouri Women For Progress - $50,000 from UAW V CAP (Detroit, MI).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Dave Muntzel, and Chris Benjamin.