MOScout Weekender: Vogel-Kehoe Sit - Poll on City Officials - Hallway on Senate 30 and more…

Kehoe-ologists Dissect Picture

I was sent this picture from a politico with the note: Jake [Vogel] met with [Governor Mike] Kehoe soliciting his support. Jake is going all in for senate 6.

And then another Republican player weighed in: This photo looks staged. It’s a risky move for the governor to signal his preferred candidate so early – if either the other two opponents win, he’ll lose an ally for the next six years. I suspect his judgment was clouded due to local politics.

·       Plus: Kehoe was friends with Jake’s father Carl for decades.  Jake is a good guy.

 

Remington/MOScout Poll: STL City Officials

Survey conducted June 25 through June 26, 2025. 568 likely 2026 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Cara Spencer’s job performance as Mayor?

Approve: 52%

Disapprove: 12%

Not sure: 36%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donna Baringer is doing as Comptroller?

Approve: 28%

Disapprove: 7%

Not sure: 65%

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Greg FX Daly is doing as Collector of Revenue?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 12%

Not sure: 37%

Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Alfred Montgomery is doing as Sheriff?

Approve: 12%

Disapprove: 54%

Not sure: 34%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate 30

I asked lobbyists, “ What's the likelihood that Dems can flip Senate 30 (Hough termed) next year?”   26   replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 15.4%

2. Somewhat likely… 61.5%

3. Somewhat unlikely… 15.4%

4. Very unlikely… 7.8%

Sample of Comments

·       Stinnett is a great candidate and Dems are in disarray. Only chance D’s have to flip that is if a different Republican somehow wins the primary.

·       It feels like it is possible, but hard to make any real educated guesses in this political climate. 15 minutes ago can feel like months...

·       Seems like it will be tough for Dems to raise money when Beck said on the floor that folks in the hallway shouldn’t ask Dems for help anymore. Dems should probably not expect much help in return.

·       If a nut wins the R primary, Betsy cruises.

·       Fogle is perfect candidate and R primary a problem

·       Depends whether Trump manages to completely wreck the economy by next fall.

·       Off Presidential cycle tends to help the Democrats (in this case) but this is a race with two very solid candidates who will do the hard work.

·       Melanie is a very effective legislator and feels like a perfect fit for the district as long as she can avoid getting pulled too far right in the primary. Rs are dumb not to close ranks behind her early.

 

Who Won the Week?

Who Won the Week will return next week.

 

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Kehoe announced several appointments…

·       Sean Pilliard was appointed as the Associate Circuit Judge for Pettis County in the 18th Judicial Circuit.

·       Casey Burton was appointed to the State Board of Health and Senior Services.

·       James Carter Jr. was appointed to the Missouri Commission for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing.

·       Paul Ogier was appointed to the Health and Educational Facilities Authority of the State of Missouri.

·       Jill Wedemeier was reappointed to the Child Abuse and Neglect Review Board.

·       Claire West was reappointed to the Missouri Local Government Employees Retirement System (LAGERS) Board of Trustees.

·       Aaron Durso and Jennifer Meyer were appointed, and Earl Crawford, Betty Davidson, Ronald Hack, Katie Jones, and Susan Orton were reappointed to the Governor’s Council on Disability.


$5K+ Contributions

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee – $10,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Enterprise Holdings PAC.

Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Therese Sander.

Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Fred M. Luth & Sons, Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from Cheyenne International, LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Enterprise Holdings, Inc. / Enterprise Mobility Political Action Committee.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Patty Lewis, Rep. Kathy Steinhoff, and Nancy Rice.

Sunday: Rep. Philip Oehlerking, and Tim Green.

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