MOScout Daily Update: July Quarter Rundown - Updated PAC List - Kehoes to Whiteman - US Atty Picks - The GOP’s Dem Staffer and more…

July Quarters

The only statewide officeholder up for election in 2026 is Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick.  There’s no indication – so far – that he will have a serious challenge.  The main action in next year’s cycle will be the state senate races.  And most of those will be decided in the primary election – August 2026, about a year away.

·       When looking at fundraising numbers: Always, always, the actual cash that can be deployed for voter contact is the #1 piece of information. 

Also of interest…

·       The burn rate.  Because that will impact how much money is lost between now and hitting voters in a year.

·       The source of funds.  Especially in the early quarters, a lot of money coming from inside the district shows homegrown support.  Pretty much everyone who donates to your campaign will cast a vote for you – and probably tell a few others folks as well.

Real quick – before I zip through the fundraising numbers – two points about the big picture…

·       Of the 16 state senate races this cycle, only 3 are expected to competitive in November: Senate 8, 24, and 30.  Two are Republican held now, and one is Democratic.  That means the basic make-up of the Senate will not change.  It will be Republican dominated for the foreseeable future.

·       Right now there are 10 Republican primaries.  The Freedom Caucus – or allied groups – are likely going to be backing a candidate in each of these.  That could significantly change the make-up of Republican Caucus, tilting it rightward and toward a more aggressive agenda.

Republican Senate Races

Senate 2

Incumbent Sen. Nick Schroer raised $100; spent $7,067; and has $64,242 on-hand.

·       1776 PAC: $125,492 COH.

State of Play: Schroer may be one of only a couple incumbent senators who gets a pass on re-election.

Senate 6 (Mike Bernskoetter termed)

Katie Ashcroft: no committee formed

Rep. Rudy Veit raised $280,075; spent $18,725; and has $322,171 on-hand.

Derrick Spicer raised $126,960; spent $10,709; and has $154,347 on-hand.

·       Spicer for Senate PAC: $3,895

Former Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger: no committee formed.

Jake Vogel: no committee formed.

Outlook: Veit put in $250,000; Spicer put in $100,000.  Will Vogel meet their ante?  Will Ashcroft actually jump in?  Lots of unknowns in this race.

Senate 8 (Mike Cierpiot termed)

Speaker Jon Patterson raised $3,000; spent $10,651; and has $255,214 on-hand.

·        Missouri Alliance PAC: $1,173,867 COH

Former Rep. Dan Stacy raised $,425; spent $1872; and has $7,351 on-hand.

Jennifer Monheiser: no committee formed.

Jeff Martin: no committee formed.

State of Play: The possible entrance of businesspeople Martin and Monheiser, and questions of whether JP really wants to run, will provide lots of twists and turns in the coming months.  Plus, Dems are plotting to flip this seat in November.

Senate 10

Incumbent Sen. Travis Fitzwater raised $0; spent $7,678; and has $134,180 on-hand.

·       Kingdom Leadership PAC: $87,673 COH.

State of Play: Fitzwater is safe.

Senate 12

Incumbent Sen. Rusty Black raised $0; spent $11,425; and has $150,349 on-hand.

Great Northwest PAC: $47,209 COH.

Freddie Griffin: formed committee after the deadline.

State of Play: Black is a well-liked, well-respected member of the Senate which means he’s ripe to draw a right-side primary.

Senate 16 (Justin Brown termed)

Rep. Bill Harwick raised $20,868; spent $2,645; and has $168,440 on-hand.

·       Missouri Enterprise Fund: $49,799 COH.

Rep. Don Mayhew: not yet filed.

Joe Steelman raised $13,450; spent $3,106; and has $48,604 on-hand.

·       Steel Resolve PAC: $0 COH.

Rep. Jeff Knight raised $0; spent $16,028; and has $62,489 on-hand.

·       JAK PAC: $36,801

Former Rep. Hannah Kelly raised $6,924; spent $13,966; and has $47,444 on-hand.

·       Accountability PAC: $5,994 COH.

·       Esther PAC: $7,391 COH.

State of Play: Like other races, this one is very fluid.  Not all these folks will be running in the end. But with multiple state reps eying it, I won’t be surprised if a lot lobbyists are telling candidates they’re waiting for filing before writing any checks.

Senate 18 (Cindy O’Laughlin termed)

Rep. Greg Sharpe raised $0; spent $13,588; and has $2,461 on-hand.

Sarah Graff raised $50,825; spent $3,416; and has $47,408 on-hand.

Dusty Blue raised 106,525; spent $2,655; and has $103,869 on-hand.

State of Play: Sharpe put in $30,000 yesterday, but that doesn’t match Blue’s $100,000; meanwhile O’Laughlin seems to be backing Graff.

Senate 20

Incumbent Sen. Curtis Trent raised $4,121; spent $9,009; and has $119,694 on-hand.

·       417 PAC: $231,274 COH.

Lori Rook formed her committee after the deadline.

State of Play: Rook’s expected to add some personal funds.

Senate 22 (Mary Elizabeth Coleman not running)

Rep. David Casteel raised $100,000; spent $2,000; and has $127,315 on-hand.

·       Casteel PAC: $5,354 COH.

Rep. Renee Reuter: not yet filed.

Jim Avery raised $282,900; spent $6,886; and has $276,013 on-hand.

Rep. Ken Waller raised $0; spent $3,049; and has $44,483 on-hand.

·       Building JeffCo Together: $8,238 COH.

State of Play: Avery and Casteel, both self-funding with a strong network of donors, this could be a juggernaut of a primary.  I’m skeptical that Waller ends up filing. 

Senate 26

Incumbent Sen. Ben Brown raised $1,026; spent $3,331; and has $92,456 on-hand.

·       BB Freedom Fund: $85,191 COH.

State of Play: It’ll be a testament to Brown is he avoids any challengers from a hotbed like Franklin County.

Senate 28 (Sandy Crawford termed)

Rep. Brad Pollitt raised $26,725; spent $5,692; and has $85,168 on-hand.

·       Rocker P Brand: $34,192 COH.

Sam Alexander raised $198,620; spent $12,436; and has $186,183 on-hand.

State of Play: Alexander is among the several candidates this cycle plunking down serious cash into their campaigns.  That alone makes him a credible threat to Pollitt.

Senate 30 (Lincoln Hough termed)

Rep. Melanie Stinnett raised $59,208; spent $7,055; and has $102,930 on-hand.

Heart of SGF PAC: $29,342 COH.

Biran Gelner hasn’t formed a committee.

·       Missouri Common Sense PAC: Limited Activity.

State of Play: While Stinnett has to deal with the possible Gelner challenge, there’s also Rep. Betsy Fogle waiting for a November showdown.  One Dem: “Betsy outraised Melanie by $55,000 despite the Gov, AG, & Auditor all going to Springfield to stump for Melanie. Based on this momentum, I have little doubt the Springfield seat is going to flip blue.”

Senate 32

Incumbent Sen. Jill Carter raised $250; spent $6,784; and has $25,421 on-hand.

·       Show Me Values PAC: $20,690 COH.

State of Play: No signs of a challenge to Carter.

Senate 34 (Tony Luetkemeyer termed)

Rep. Brenda Shields raised $2,000; spent $706; and has $94,831 on-hand.

·       Lewis and Clark Leadership PAC: $17,409 COH.

Nathan Willett raised $33,950; spent $5,493; and has $38,462 on-hand.

·       NextGen North PAC: $34,873 COH.

State of Play: Shields starts with cash lead and name ID lead.

Democratic Senate Races

Senate 4 (Karla May termed)

Rep. Steve Butz raised $28,338; spent $0; and has $133,025 on-hand.

·       Butz STL PAC: 41,236 COH.

Former Rep. Gina Mitten raised $16,858; spent $6,706; and has $57,411 on-hand.

Rep. LaKeySha Bosley: not yet filed.

Former Rep. Peter Merideth: not yet filed.

State of Play: Butz leads the money race, which probably makes him the front runner.  Merideth is not showing signs that he’ll run.

Senate 14 (Brian Williams termed)

Rep. Raychel Proudie raised $22,952; spent $6,908; and has $22,864 on-hand.

·       PROUD PAC: not yet filed.

Joe Palm raised $0; spent $0; and has $0 on-hand.

Shaunte Duncan raised $1,900; spent $4,442; and has $11,699 on-hand.

Former Rep. John Bowman formed his committee after the deadline.

State of Play: Proudie won the first round, but this race – especially with the entry of John Bowman – has a lot of miles left.

Senate 24

Sen. Tracy McCreery raised $53,888; spent $608; and has 131,499 on-hand.

·       Serve Missouri: $63,361 COH.

State of Play: McCreery puts up a good number with an eye to a possible general election challenge.

Updated IE PAC Listing

I try to keep track of which PAC is associated with which politician.   See the updated list here.  The fundraising numbers are from the July reports, or their most recent filing (as noted).

Top 25 PAC COH

Mid-America Carpenters Regional PAC - $1,783,893

Luetkemeyer For Missouri - $1,227,335

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) -$1,173,867

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1,119,714

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $976,167

Missouri REALTORS PAC, Inc - $909,864

Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government - $887,700

RightPath PAC - $873,460

Pipefitters Assoc Local #533 - $692,503

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $615,889

Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $610,251

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $596,278

BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $584,750

Lucas For KC (pro-Quinton) - $583,451

MoCannTrade PAC - $546,605

Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) - $515,700

MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $507,758

Unite. Inspire. Lead - $490,282

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $483,837

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $479,309

International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC - $471,360

Missouri American Water Company Employees PAC - $427,421

Webber for Boone County - $419,741

International Union of Operating Engineers Political & Educational Fund - $411,451

Jason Law for St. Charles County - $398,838

Kehoes Salute Iran Nuke-Bunker Bombers

Media Advisory: Governor and First Lady Kehoe will visit Whiteman Air Force Base to visit with the men and women of the 131st Bomb Wing, a unit of the Missouri Air National Guard.

MO US Atty Picks

Post-Dispatch reports that “Thomas Albus is in line to get the nod for the Eastern District in St. Louis, while former Jefferson Countian R. Matt Price will be named to head the Western District in Kansas City.”

MOScouter: The Judge Tom Albus nomination for US Attorney is a huge win for Eric Schmitt and highlights his close relationship with President Donald J Trump.

·       Meanwhile, Price “initially went around the Senators. He had previously served as an Assistant US Attorney and went to friends at the Department of Justice. After Hawley‘s choice did not move forward, it seemed like both senators were comfortable with Price.”

Dem Shakes Fist at Johnson

Kyerra Johnson, staffer for Democratic Sen. Angela Mosley, has filed to run as a Republican in House 60.  It outrages some Dems.  Here’s the latest from one of them…

“Democratic staffer Kyerra Johnson takes a picture in the Governor's office for a bill that the Sen. Angela Mosley did not have legislation in. The photo depicts the Democratic staffer with her Missouri State pin on her shirt as a Democratic Staffer supporting Republican legislation, as if she worked the bill and advocated for it in the capitol with lobbyists.”

Bigger Picture in Stadium Developments

Wall Street Journal reports on Atlanta’s ballpark development, explaining that stadium are about more than the stadium.  Owners want to own the whole experience…

The first phase of Ballpark Village, a dining and entertainment district near the St. Louis Cardinals’ home stadium, opened in 2014. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts has bought property around Wrigley Field to join the sports real-estate boom. “These owners got smart,” said David Demarest, the U.S. lead for the sports and entertainment practice group at Jones Lang LaSalle, the lead adviser on the Braves’ project. “They realized that other people were getting rich off of their presence.”

$5K+ Contributions

Sharpe For Missouri - $30,000 from Greg Sharpe.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from David Stewart.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri Company.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Associated Industries of Missouri PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jeanette Mott Oxford, and John Sondag.