MOScout Daily Update: First Look CD-5 Names - End of Kehoe Honeymoon Coming? - IPs on IPs - Hanaway to FLA - Roof Collapse and more…
Second Special Session
There’s a lot to digest in the call for the special session…
The big picture: I didn’t talk to anyone who thinks that Republicans won’t roll Dems on both these issues – redistricting and initiative petition changes.
But… while both moves are popular among rank-and-file Republican Party members, they are not popular broadly in Missouri. The redistricting is grossly political. And polls have found that Missourians don’t want to mess with the IP power.
So this will cause some angst among Republican legislators in swing districts…
End of Kehoe Honeymoon?
One insider: “A surprising number of members are not fans and are quietly suggesting they are no votes. Come vote time, I would be surprised if their spines stay that tough. But after passing a Kehoe utility bill that has stirred some primaries, a billionaire bailout bill that stirred more primaries and now this,. I think Kehoe is running out of goodwill.”
And yet his right-side looks good. I expected that Bill Eigel and the Freedom Caucus would spend four years hectoring Governor Mike Kehoe. But they issued a press release praising him. His special session seems to have quieted their criticisms.
Who Might Run for the New CD-5?
Sen. Kurtis Gregory has a district that looks tailor-made. This has been on everyone’s lips since the rumors of the map’s contours first were whispered. One source says it’s not a certainty that Gregory would trade his life on farm for DC. We’ll see.
Others…
· Rep. Jeff Coleman. The case: he’s termed out next year. Worst case scenario is he loses primary after massively raising his name ID and then runs for Sen. Rick Brattin’s open senate seat in 2028.
· Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. The case: the new district contained his old senate district. It’d be a free shot as he’s not up for re-election until 2028.
· Speaker JP. The case: Patterson could shovel his campaign war-chest into C4 with the hopes it would spend money on his behalf for Congress. One consultant: “He probably has as good a chance of winning CD5 as he would SD8.”
· Sen. Mike Bernskoetter. The case: though he’s currently headed for Cole County presiding commissioner, he has represented the largest population of the Mid-MO portion of that district.
· Sen. Joe Nicola. The case: KC has a slight vote edge if you consider Johnson and Pettis in the KC vote totals.
· Jason Kander. Yes, a Democrat. The case: the best chance for a Dem upset would be before there’s an incumbent. Kander has name ID, and if stagflation keeps its grip on the economy until next year, it could be a bloodbath year for the GOP.
Early line from on lobbyist: how many republicans get into the CD 5 primary – what is the over under on R’s that say they will run – not file – just say they will run? I say 8.5!
IPs About IPs
Jobs with Justice Ballot Fund filed a new initiative petition. It would prevent the state legislature from messing with anything the voters passed for 5 years unless they mustered a three-quarters majority. See the IP filing here.
· Jobs with Justice spent $5,000 last month on legal fees for IP filings.
What It Means
I think there’s an extremely high likelihood that there are dueling initiative petition “reform” questions on the ballot. One from the legislature that will weaken the IP power, and a second one from JwJ or another similarly aligned group that will strengthen it.
· A second IP question – especially if there’s funding behind it – will lower, perhaps drastically lower, the chances that the legislature’s IP proposal passes.
And
The possibility of concurrent majorities being enshrined in the constitution will create some urgency for folks to get issue to the voter before the threshold changes. One lobbyist: “November 2026 could be the last train out of the station if you want to change the constitution.”
Hanaway to FLA
Next week, while Jefferson City is consumed with fundraisers (and redistricting and IP changes), newly sworn-in Attorney General Catherine Hanaway will be in Florida, building her 2028 war-chest…
Roof Collapse
KQ2 reports… Multiple law enforcement agencies responded to North Daviess R-III School on Saturday night for a report of a loud noise and damage. Upon arrival, they found that the roof of the gymnasium had collapsed…
The release from the Daviess County Sheriff's office stated that the call was made by a school worker who was in the building at the time of the loud noise. The worker was alone in the school at the time and was found uninjured.
The roof of the school had reportedly collapsed, falling inside the gym and causing the east wall of the gym to collapse onto the exterior of the school.
· Daviess County is represented by Sen. Rusty Black and Rep. Mazzie Christensen.
Reuter Second Job
Tony Messenger reports on Michael Reuter, the circuit clerk of Jefferson County.
He’s running for his fourth term next year… Reuter makes $87,000 a year in his elected job. On Sept. 1, he gets a raise to $94,000.
What many voters in Jefferson County might not know is that he has a second full-time job. Since January of this year, Reuter has been a police officer in the city of Leadington, about 40 minutes south of Hillsboro, in St. Francois County. Reuter told me in an interview that he took the job because he’s going through a divorce and needs the money. Reuter is married to state Rep. Renee Reuter, R-Imperial. She first filed for divorce in 2020, but that case was dismissed. A second case is making its way through the courts, though it doesn’t show up in publicly available court records.
Help Wanted
Missouri Justice Fellow (Rural Attorney). The Missouri Justice Fellowship is a two-year fellowship program designed to bring quality legal representation to our under-served, rural areas of Missouri. Candidates may apply during their third year of law school for consideration to the program… By bringing quality legal representation to underserved communities in Missouri, fellows will demand justice for the indigent accused… $41,544 - $61,920 per year.
Lobbyist Registrations
Pamela Lanier added Freeman Health System.
Jewell Patek added Precision Motion Health, Guidehouse, LACIE, Missouri Insurance Coalition, Carahsoft Technology Corp.
Brad Thielemier added MGLG LLC, and Recycling Grace Women's Center.
Becca Collins added Rebecca Collins.
James Harris added Midland Care Connection.
Gamble & Schlemeier added Missouri Pharmacy Business Council; and deleted Missouri Pharmacy Association.
Bernie Lewis deleted Youth and Police Initiative.
$5K+ Contributions
ATGS PAC - $30,000 from Armstrong Teasdale LLP,
MPS PAC - $25,000 from Michael Rayner.
Missourians for a Single Market - $10,000 from The Vapor LLC DBA The Hub Smoke Shop Gifts.
Missouri Voices - $25,000 from Laura Cohen.
Missouri Voices - $10,000 from Scott Stern.
Missouri Voices - $10,000 from Tim Stern.
Missouri Voices - $25,000 from SEIU Healthcare Illinois Indiana (Chicago, IL).
Missouri Voices - $10,000 from Joshua Rowland.
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc Political Action Committee Missouri - Federal Committee - $11,000 from Pediatrix Medication Group Inc PAC. (Sunrise, FL).
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Phil Christofanelli.